Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dk4vv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T17:15:08.888Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

ON NONPARAMETRIC INFERENCE IN THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 May 2017

Vishal Kamat*
Affiliation:
Northwestern University
*
*Address correspondence to Vishal Kamat, Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA; e-mail: [email protected].

Abstract

This paper studies the validity of nonparametric tests used in the regression discontinuity design. The null hypothesis of interest is that the average treatment effect at the threshold in the so-called sharp design equals a pre-specified value. We first show that, under assumptions used in the majority of the literature, for any test the power against any alternative is bounded above by its size. This result implies that, under these assumptions, any test with nontrivial power will exhibit size distortions. We next provide a sufficient strengthening of the standard assumptions under which we show that a version of a test suggested in Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2014) can control limiting size.

Type
MISCELLANEA
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I am grateful to Ivan Canay for his valuable guidance and suggestions. I thank the Co-Editor, two anonymous referees, Matias Cattaneo, Joel Horowitz, Pedro Sant’Anna and Max Tabord-Meehan for their helpful comments.

References

REFERENCES

Andrews, D.W. & Guggenberger, P. (2009a) Incorrect asymptotic size of subsampling procedures based on post-consistent model selection estimators. Journal of Econometrics 152, 1927.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrews, D.W. & Guggenberger, P. (2009b) Validity of subsampling and plug-in asymptotic inference for parameters defined by moment inequalities. Econometric Theory 25, 669709.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Armstrong, T. & Kolesar, M. (2016) Optimal inference in a class of regression models. Manuscript.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bahadur, R.R. & Savage, L.J. (1956) The nonexistence of certain statistical procedures in nonparametric problems. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 27, 11151122.Google Scholar
Calonico, S., Cattaneo, M.D., & Farrell, M.H. (2016) Coverage error optimal confidence intervals for regression discontinuity designs. Manuscript.Google Scholar
Calonico, S., Cattaneo, M.D., & Titiunik, R. (2014) Robust nonparametric confidence intervals for regression-discontinuity designs. Econometrica 82, 22952326.Google Scholar
Canay, I.A., Santos, A., & Shaikh, A.M. (2013) On the testability of identification in some non-parametric models with endogeneity. Econometrica 81, 25352559.Google Scholar
Card, D., Lee, D.S., Pei, Z., & Weber, A. (2015) Inference on causal effects in a generalized regression kink design. Econometrica 83, 24532483.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dufour, J.-M. (1997) Some impossibility theorems in econometrics with applications to structural and dynamic models. Econometrica 65, 13651387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dufour, J.-M. (2003) Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’conomique 36, 767808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frandsen, B.R., Frlich, M., & Melly, B. (2012) Quantile treatment effects in the regression discontinuity design. Journal of Econometrics 168, 382395.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guggenberger, P. (2010a) The impact of a Hausman pretest on the asymptotic size of a hypothesis test. Econometric Theory 26, 369382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guggenberger, P. (2010b) The impact of a Hausman pretest on the size of a hypothesis test: The panel data case. Journal of Econometrics 156, 337343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hahn, J., Todd, P., & Van der Klaauw, W. (2001) Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regression-discontinuity design. Econometrica 69, 201209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imbens, G. & Kalyanaraman, K. (2012) Optimal bandwidth choice for the regression discontinuity estimator. The Review of Economic Studies 79, 933959.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imbens, G.W. & Lemieux, T. (2008) Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice. Journal of Econometrics 142, 615635.Google Scholar
Lee, D.S. & Lemieux, T. (2010) Regression discontinuity designs in economics. Journal of Economic Literature 48, 281355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeb, H. & Pötscher, B.M. (2005) Model selection and inference: Facts and fiction. Econometric Theory 21(01), 2159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeb, H. & Pötscher, B.M. (2008) Can one estimate the unconditional distribution of post-model-selection estimators? Econometric Theory 24, 338376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lehmann, E.L. & Loh, W.-Y. (1990) Pointwise versus uniform robustness of some large-sample tests and confidence intervals. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 17, 177187.Google Scholar
McCrary, J. (2008) Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test. Journal of Econometrics 142, 698714.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mikusheva, A. (2007) Uniform inference in autoregressive models. Econometrica 75, 14111452.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mikusheva, A. (2010) Robust confidence sets in the presence of weak instruments. Journal of Econometrics 157, 236247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mikusheva, A. (2012) One-dimensional inference in autoregressive models with the potential presence of a unit root. Econometrica 80, 173212.Google Scholar
Müller, U.K. (2008) The impossibility of consistent discrimination between i(0) and i(1) processes. Econometric Theory 24, 616630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Otsu, T., Xu, K.-L., & Matsushita, Y. (2015) Empirical likelihood for regression discontinuity design. Journal of Econometrics 186, 94112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romano, J.P. (2004) On non-parametric testing, the uniform behaviour of the t-test, and related problems. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 31, 567584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romano, J.P. & Shaikh, A.M. (2008) Inference for identifiable parameters in partially identified econometric models. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138, 27862807.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Vaart, A.W. (1998) Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Kamat supplementary material

Kamat supplementary material 1

Download Kamat supplementary material(File)
File 20.5 KB
Supplementary material: File

Kamat supplementary material

Kamat supplementary material 2

Download Kamat supplementary material(File)
File 1 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Kamat supplementary material

Kamat supplementary material 3

Download Kamat supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 224.2 KB