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Voting Behaviour and Socio-Economic Characteristics: The Middlesex East Federal Election, 1965

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 November 2014

James W. Simmons
James W. Simmons*
Affiliation:
University of Western Ontario
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Extract

Although the interrelationship between socio-economic characteristics and electoral behaviour in Canadian elections is widely recognized, only recently have attempts been made to evaluate these interactions in a precise manner. The approaches used so far vary in methodology–using both interviews and voting results–and in the level of analysis–ranging from poll to constituency to province to nation. The results depend to some extent on the research approach. Particularly strong variations exist in the effects of social variables in different provinces and different constituencies.

This study presents another research alternative, using multiple regression techniques to combine census small-area information with voting results at the poll level. Although the strengths and weaknesses of this approach are discussed in detail by Meisel and Paquet, few Canadian studies have yet exploited its potential return. Problems of sampling and of variations in candidates and issues among constituencies are replaced by the difficulties of ecological correlation, but the use of regression procedures allows the evaluation of the predictive power of the explanatory variables.

Pour cette étude l'auteur se sert de techniques de correlation et de régression en se basant sur des données statistiques officielles afin d'identifier les rapports qui existent entre les caracteristiques sociales des électeurs et les résultats électoraux. L'étude est fondée sur les résultats du scrutin de la circonscription électorale de Middlesex-est et prend comme point de départ les résultats des centres de vote de cette circonscription. Les données sociales sont tirées des résultats de recensements en fonction de zones d'énumération.

De vingt à trente-cinq pour cent de la différence du suffrage obtenu par chaque parti s'explique à cause des variables de prédiction. Les rapports enregistrés confirment les résultats d'enquêtes menées dans d'autres régions à l'aide de moyens différents. Les résultats de la régression sont ensuite appliqués à la circonscription nouvellement délimitée en vue d'établir des prévisions pour des élections futures.

Les techniques multivariables utilisés pour des études fondées sur les résultats de centres de vote semblent être un moyen valable pour l'étude des caracteristiques sociales et politiques, tout en ayant le grand avantage de pouvoir être appliqués à l'analyse d'élections passées.

Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science/Revue canadienne de economiques et science politique , Volume 33 , Issue 3 , August 1967 , pp. 389 - 400
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 1967

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References

1 The major studies of this type are: Alford, Robert R., Party and Society: The Anglo-American Democracies (Chicago, 1963), 250–86Google Scholar; the set of studies edited by Meisel, John, Papers on the 1962 Election (Toronto, 1964)Google Scholar, particularly the papers by Perlin, George, “St. John's West,” 3–18 Google Scholar; Scarrow, Howard A., “Three Dimensions of a Local Political Party,” 53–67 Google Scholar; Peterson, T. and Avakumovic, I., “A Return to the Status Quo: The Election in Winnipeg North Centre,” 91–106 Google Scholar; Irvine, W. P., “An Analysis of Voting Shifts in Quebec,” 129–43Google Scholar; Alford, Robert R., “The Social Bases of Political Cleavage in 1962,” 203–34Google Scholar; and Meisel, John, “Conclusion: An Analysis of the National (?) Results,” 272–88Google Scholar; also Meisel, John, “Religious Affiliation and Electoral Behaviour: A Case Study,” this Journal, XXII (11, 1956), 481–96Google Scholar; Jewett, Pauline, “Voting in the 1960 Federal By-Elections at Peterborough and Niagara Falls,” this Journal, XXVIII (02, 1962), pp. 35–53 Google Scholar; Regenstreif, Peter, The Diefenbaker Interlude: Party and Voting in Canada (Toronto, 1965)Google Scholar; Anderson, Grace M., “Voting Behaviour and the Ethnic and Religious Variables,” this Journal, XXXII (02, 1966), 27–37 Google Scholar; Courtney, John C. and Smith, David E., “Voting in a Provincial General Election and a Federal By-election: A Constituency Study of Saskatoon City,” this Journal, XXXII (08, 1966), 338–53.Google Scholar These works are cited hereafter by the author's name only, except where the author has written two or more cited studies.

2 Alford, , “Social Bases,” 219–26.Google Scholar

3 Note the marked differences between the characteristics of NDP supporters in Winnipeg North Centre, an old Socialist stronghold, and other areas: Peterson and Avakumovic, 101; Scarrow, 65; and Jewett, 38.

4 Meisel, John and Paquet, Gilles, “Some Quantitative Analyses of Canadian Election Results: An Exercise in the Testing of Hypotheses,” in Henripin, J. and Asimakopoulos, A., Canadian Political Science Association Conferences on Statistics, 1962 and 1963: Papers (Toronto, 1964), 16–25 Google Scholar; and the discussion by Muni Frumhartz, 32–38. The latter refers to several similar studies in the United States.

5 Problems of analysing areal data are discussed in Duncan, Otis D., Cuzzort, Ray P., and Duncan, Beverly, Statistical Geography (Glencoe, Ill., 1961).Google Scholar

6 Jewett, 38–9, made similar observations.

7 A standard multiple regression program provided by the University of Western Ontario Computer Centre was used. For a discussion of the mathematics of correlation and regression analysis consult Alker, Hayward R. Jr., Mathematics and Politics (New York, 1965) or any introductory statistics text.Google Scholar

8 As shown by Alford, “Social Bases.”

9 Confirming Jewett, Regenstreif (each reference to this book refers to the series of tables on pp. 14, 33, 37 and 38), Anderson, and Courtney and Smith.

10 The lack of appeal of the CCF-NDP to the upper levels in education, occupation, and income is universal: Alford Party and Society, Jewett, Regenstreif, Scarrow, Alford “Social Bases,” and Courtney and Smith.

11 Alford, “Social Bases,” gives support to this finding, but Anderson found little support for the NDP on the part of first-generation immigrants.

12 This relationship is inconsistent with the other studies: Regenstreif, Alford “Social Bases,” Anderson, and Courtney and Smith.

13 Education is gradually emerging as a significant trait of Liberal supporters: see Perlin, Irvine, and Courtney and Smith. The weak correlations with rc and outside run counter to strong evidence from Meisel “Religious Affiliation,” Regenstreif, Alford “Social Bases,” Anderson, and Courtney and Smith. One might also have expected the suburban variable (children) and its correlate (aged) to have more effect: see Perlin, and Alford “Social Bases.”

14 Confirming Jewett, Alford “Social Bases,” and Regenstreif.

15 See Jewett, Perlin, Alford “Social Bases,” Regenstreif, Anderson, and Courtney and Smith.

16 As in Scarrow, Alford “Social Bases,” and Anderson.

17 As in Meisel “Religious Affiliation,” Regenstreif, Perlin, Alford “Social Bases,” Anderson, and Courtney and Smith.

18 Unfortunately, our knowledge of social change, as provided by the decennial census, generally lags behind our knowledge of voting changes.

19 An interesting attempt at electoral simulation is Pool, Ithiel de Sola, Abelson, Robert P., and Popkin, Samuel L., Candidates, Issues and Strategies: A Computer Simulation of the 1960 Presidential Election (Cambridge, Mass., 1964).Google Scholar

20 The NDP, waging only a nominal campaign, obtained about 15 per cent of the vote in the adjacent riding of London, with the Liberals obtaining 37 per cent and the Conservatives 46 per cent.

21 Meisel “Religious Affiliation,” (using 1953 and 1955 data), Regenstreif, and Alford Party and Society, chap. IX.

22 Alford, “Social Bases,” Perlin, Irvine, Regenstreif, and Courtney and Smith.