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Economic Development and the Transfer Mechanism: Canada, 1895–1913

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 November 2014

G. M. Meier*
Affiliation:
Williams College
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Extract

Among the several inductive studies of the international transfer mechanism, Professor Viner's investigation of Canada's foreign borrowings in the period 1900–13 has provided the most convincing substantiation of the classical price-specie-flow mechanism. Yet, on the theoretical level, the neo-Keynesian theory of international trade now makes it difficult to accept the classical view of the transfer process as a complete explanation. And, on the empirical level, the availability of more comprehensive statistics and further research in Canada's economic history now allow us to understand in greater detail the forces of economic growth which were particularly strong in Canada during the years of foreign borrowing. Should we not therefore attempt to supplement Professor Viner's study by recognizing the relevance of income analysis and the historical context of economic development?

To place Professor Viner's study in this wider frame of analysis is the objective of this paper. Section one briefly recalls the conclusions of Professor Viner's investigation. The second section establishes some significant features of Canada's economic development, while the final section relates these features to the operation of the transfer mechanism and revises Professor Viner's interpretation.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 1953

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References

1 Viner, Jacob, Canada's Balance of International Indebtedness, 1900–13 (Cambridge, Mass., 1924)Google Scholar; henceforth, Canada. Also, Viner, Jacob, Studies in the Theory of International Trade (New York, 1937)Google Scholar; henceforth, Studies.

2 Studies, 430.

3 Canada, 146.

4 Cf. ibid., 95, 154, 178–9, 215–7, 227–48.

5 Studies, 414.

6 Board of Inquiry into the Cost of Living, Report, II (Ottawa, 1915)Google Scholar; henceforth, Cost of Living.

7 Professor Angell's criticism on the “question of the intermediary financial mechanism” is not considered here, for this criticism stems mainly from a misinterpretation of Professor Viner's analysis. Cf. Studies, 414–19.

8 Canada, 214–15; Studies, 429–30.

9 Kuznets, Simon S., Secular Movements in Production and Prices (New York, 1930), 72–8, and chap. IV.Google Scholar

10 Buckley, K. A., “Real Investment in Canada,” unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of London Library, 1950, 178.Google Scholar Official national income statistics do not exist prior to 1926.

11 Ibid., 172.

12 Ibid., 177.

13 Royal Commission on Dominion-Provincial Relations, Appendix 3: The Economic Background of Dominion-Provincial Regions, by Mackintosh, W. A. (Ottawa, 1939), 27.Google Scholar The minerals of the Laurentian Plateau and the minerals and timber of the Cordilleran region provided additional attractions, but they were much less important than that provided by wheat.

14 Knowles, L.C.A., The Economic Development of the British Overseas Empire, II (London, 1930).Google Scholar

15 Martin, C., “Dominion Lands Policy,” in Canadian Frontiers of Settlement, II (Toronto, 1938).Google Scholar

16 Canada Year Book, 1950, Statistical Survey of Progress of Canada.

17 Buckley, , Real Investment, 174.Google Scholar

18 Shortt, A. and Doughty, A. G., eds., Canada and Its Provinces (Toronto, 1914), IX.Google Scholar

19 Brebner, J. B., North Atlantic Triangle (New Haven, 1945), 229.Google Scholar

20 Buckley, , Real Investment, 174.Google Scholar

21 League of Nations, Economic, Financial and Transit Dept., Industrialization and Foreign Trade (Ser.L.o.N.P.1945.II.A.10), p. 135.Google Scholar

22 Ibid., p. 56.

23 Canada Year Book, 1950, Survey of Progress.

24 Ibid.

25 Corbett, D. C., “Immigration and Economic Development,” Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, XVII, no. 8, 08, 1951, 360–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

26 Cost of Living, 11.

27 See Duesenberry, James S., “Some Aspects of the Theory of Economic Development,” Explorations in Entrepreneurial History, III, no. 2, 12 15, 1950 Google Scholar; Robinson, Joan, The Rate of Interest and Other Essays (London, 1952), 109.Google Scholar

28 Canada, 139.

29 Ibid., 98.

30 Cost of Living, 891.

31 Cf. Lehfeldt, R. A., “The Rate of Interest on British and Foreign Investments,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 01, March, 1913 Google Scholar; Flux, A. W., “The Yield of High-Class Investments, 1860–1910,” Manchester Statistical Society, 02, 1911.Google Scholar

32 Smith, K. C. and Horne, G. F., An Index Number of Securities, 1867–1914, Royal Economic Society Memorandum no. 47 (London, 1934)Google Scholar; Cost of Living, 604.

33 Lenfant, J. H., “Great Britain's Capital Formation, 1865–1914,” Economica, XVIII, no. 70, 05, 1951, 160.Google Scholar

34 Plumptre, A. F. W., “The Nature of Political and Economic Development in the British Dominions,” Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, III, no. 4, 11, 1937, 492n.Google Scholar

35 Canada, 129; Field, F. W., Capital Investments in Canada (Toronto, 1911), 15.Google Scholar

36 Marshall, H. et al., Canadian-American Industry (New Haven, 1936), 21.Google Scholar

37 Field, , Capital Investments, 2, 14.Google Scholar

38 See Machlup, Fritz, International Trade and the National Income Multiplier (Philadelphia, 1943), 148–54.Google Scholar

39 Ibid., 152.

40 Cf. Hicks, J. R., A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle (Oxford, 1950), 96 et seq. Google Scholar; Harrod, R. F., Towards a Dynamic Economics (London, 1948), 87.Google Scholar

41 Hicks, , Trade Cycle, 143.Google Scholar

42 Cf. Chang, T. C., Cyclical Movements in the Balance of Payments (Cambridge, 1951), 41–3Google Scholar; Stuvel, G., The Exchange Stability Problem (Oxford, 1951), chap. IV.Google Scholar

43 Cf. Professor Viner's disclaimer of the exact measurement of “price effects” by “the use of subtle statistical methods.” Canada, 215.

44 See Chart II. The rise in imports cannot be attributed solely to the popnlation growth, for imports per capita (valued at 1900 prices) rose rapidly from $23.58 in 1895 to $82.20 in 1913. See Taylor, K. W., Statistical Contributions to Canadian Economic History, II (Toronto, 1931), 3.Google Scholar

45 For the extent of the increase in Canada's domestic commodity prices and wholesale prices relative to prices in Britain and the United States, see Canada, 223, 227, 230.

46 Cf. Knowles, , Overseas Empire, II, chap, XIXGoogle Scholar; Cost of Living, 15 et seq.; The Cambridge History of the British Empire, VI (Cambridge, 1930), chap. XXV.Google Scholar

47 Canada, 247.

48 Canada, 230, n. 2.

49 Between 1901 and 1911, the percentage rise in number of persons occupied in agriculture was 30, forestry and lumbering 205, manufactures (mechanical and textiles) 74, mining 72, and transportation 183. Cost of Living, 951.

50 Ibid., 948.

51 See Canada, 231, 264.

52 See Thomas, Brinley, “Migration and the Rhythm of Economic Growth,” Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, XIX, no. 3, 09, 1951 Google Scholar; Brown, E. H. Phelps, “Course of Wage Rates in Five Countries, 1890–1939,” Oxford Economic Papers, 06, 1950, 238–46.Google Scholar

53 Rostow, W. W., British Economy of the Nineteenth Century (Oxford, 1948), 33.Google Scholar

54 Cairncross, A. K., “Home and Foreign Investment in Great Britain,” unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Cambridge University Library, 1936, Table 21.Google Scholar

55 Kuznets, Simon S., National Income: Summary of Findings (New York, 1946), 63–4Google Scholar; King, W. I., Wealth and Income of the People of the United States (New York, 1917), chap. VII.Google Scholar

56 Mills, F. C., Prices in Recession and Recovery (New York, 1936), 443, n. 1.Google Scholar

57 Ibid., 444.

58 Defined as the ratio of the value-of-exports index to the price-of-imports index. The major portion of the increase in export values reflects an increase of quantities rather than prices. The volume index of total commodity exports rose from 100 in 1900 to 168 in 1913, while the price index rose from 100 in 1900 to 123 in 1913. Cf. Taylor, , Statistical Contributions, 1819.Google Scholar

59 Such a distinction is less artificial than the usual one between “income effects” and “price effects,” for, although in the course of development, income effects and price effects are normally not separable, the absolute and relative changes in prices may be distinguished.

60 It is apparent from Chart III that the passive balance on current account is composed mainly of the import surplus in the balance of trade.

61 Cf. Canada, 284–92.

62 Canada, 204–6.

63 Ibid., 206. In his Studies, Professor Viner cornes closer to a recognition of income changes, although he does so in terms of the “final purchases velocity of money” (cf. Studies, 360 et seq.). Yet, even the implications of this analysis are neglected when Professor Viner proceeds to re-examine the Canadian case in his Studies, 413–22.

64 Canada, 215.

65 Ibid., 179–81, 228.

66 Ibid., 249.

67 Viner, Jacob, International Economics (Glencoe, 1951), 15.Google Scholar