Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 November 2014
Among the several inductive studies of the international transfer mechanism, Professor Viner's investigation of Canada's foreign borrowings in the period 1900–13 has provided the most convincing substantiation of the classical price-specie-flow mechanism. Yet, on the theoretical level, the neo-Keynesian theory of international trade now makes it difficult to accept the classical view of the transfer process as a complete explanation. And, on the empirical level, the availability of more comprehensive statistics and further research in Canada's economic history now allow us to understand in greater detail the forces of economic growth which were particularly strong in Canada during the years of foreign borrowing. Should we not therefore attempt to supplement Professor Viner's study by recognizing the relevance of income analysis and the historical context of economic development?
To place Professor Viner's study in this wider frame of analysis is the objective of this paper. Section one briefly recalls the conclusions of Professor Viner's investigation. The second section establishes some significant features of Canada's economic development, while the final section relates these features to the operation of the transfer mechanism and revises Professor Viner's interpretation.
1 Viner, Jacob, Canada's Balance of International Indebtedness, 1900–13 (Cambridge, Mass., 1924)Google Scholar; henceforth, Canada. Also, Viner, Jacob, Studies in the Theory of International Trade (New York, 1937)Google Scholar; henceforth, Studies.
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4 Cf. ibid., 95, 154, 178–9, 215–7, 227–48.
5 Studies, 414.
6 Board of Inquiry into the Cost of Living, Report, II (Ottawa, 1915)Google Scholar; henceforth, Cost of Living.
7 Professor Angell's criticism on the “question of the intermediary financial mechanism” is not considered here, for this criticism stems mainly from a misinterpretation of Professor Viner's analysis. Cf. Studies, 414–19.
8 Canada, 214–15; Studies, 429–30.
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11 Ibid., 172.
12 Ibid., 177.
13 Royal Commission on Dominion-Provincial Relations, Appendix 3: The Economic Background of Dominion-Provincial Regions, by Mackintosh, W. A. (Ottawa, 1939), 27.Google Scholar The minerals of the Laurentian Plateau and the minerals and timber of the Cordilleran region provided additional attractions, but they were much less important than that provided by wheat.
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49 Between 1901 and 1911, the percentage rise in number of persons occupied in agriculture was 30, forestry and lumbering 205, manufactures (mechanical and textiles) 74, mining 72, and transportation 183. Cost of Living, 951.
50 Ibid., 948.
51 See Canada, 231, 264.
52 See Thomas, Brinley, “Migration and the Rhythm of Economic Growth,” Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, XIX, no. 3, 09, 1951 Google Scholar; Brown, E. H. Phelps, “Course of Wage Rates in Five Countries, 1890–1939,” Oxford Economic Papers, 06, 1950, 238–46.Google Scholar
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59 Such a distinction is less artificial than the usual one between “income effects” and “price effects,” for, although in the course of development, income effects and price effects are normally not separable, the absolute and relative changes in prices may be distinguished.
60 It is apparent from Chart III that the passive balance on current account is composed mainly of the import surplus in the balance of trade.
61 Cf. Canada, 284–92.
62 Canada, 204–6.
63 Ibid., 206. In his Studies, Professor Viner cornes closer to a recognition of income changes, although he does so in terms of the “final purchases velocity of money” (cf. Studies, 360 et seq.). Yet, even the implications of this analysis are neglected when Professor Viner proceeds to re-examine the Canadian case in his Studies, 413–22.
64 Canada, 215.
65 Ibid., 179–81, 228.
66 Ibid., 249.
67 Viner, Jacob, International Economics (Glencoe, 1951), 15.Google Scholar