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A Teacher's Remark on Exact Credibility

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 August 2014

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In the classical Bayesian approach to credibility the claims are conditionally independent and identically distributed random variables, with common density f(x, ϑ). The unknown parameter ϑ is a realization of a random variable Θ having initial (prior) density u(ϑ). Let

The initial pure premium is

The premium for X t + 1, given X1 +, …, Xt, is the conditional expectation

A central question is for which pairs f(x, ϑ) and u (ϑ) this expression is linear, i.e. of the form

where is the observed average. This is indeed the case for about half a dozen famous examples. Jewell (1974) has found an elegant and general approach to unify these examples, see also Goovaerts and Hoogstad (1987, chapter 2). The classical examples can be retrieved as special cases; however a preliminary reparameterization has to be performed on a case by case basis. The purpose of this note is to propose an alternative (but of course strongly related) formulation of the general model, from which the classical examples can be retrieved in a straightforward way.

Type
Short Contribution
Copyright
Copyright © International Actuarial Association 1995

References

Goovaerts, M.J. and Hoogstad, W.J. (1987) Credibility Theory. Surveys of Actuarial Studies, No. 4. Nationale-Nederlanden.Google Scholar
Jewell, W. S. (1974) Credible means are exact for exponential families. ASTIN Bulletin, 8, 7790.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jewell, W.S. (1975) Regularity conditions for exact credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 8, 336341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar