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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 May 2025
[This comprehensive survey of India's growing military strength and geostrategic relationships involving China, the United States and Russia reveals the interplay between economic and military-nuclear power in a region that is doubly volatile, as the scene of recent nuclear breakthroughs and rapid changes in military and economy might. Noting the predominantly military character of the U.S.-Indian relationship, and the predominantly economic and resource-driven character of the unfolding China-Indian relationship, Lora Saalman raises important issues of regional development in an era of military insecurity. Japan Focus.]
[1] “India's China Policy: Importance of a Strategic Framework,” in “India Urged to Formulate ‘Clear’ China Policy to Achieve Strategic Objectives,” New Delhi, Bharat Rakshak Monitor, FBIS SAP20050714000091, April 1, 2005.; “The New Chapter of Relationship,” in “Editorial Lauds Growing India-China Friendship to Counter US Dominance in Asia,” New Delhi Rashtriya Sahara, FBIS SAP20050413000025, April 13, 2005.
[2] Lu Yansong, “Short-sighted Nuclear Deal,” in “PRC: RMRB Article Views US-India ‘Nuclear Deal,’ US Plan to Counter PRC with India, Japan,” Beijing, Renmin Ribao, FBIS CPP20050819000088, August 19, 2005.; “RMRB Cites Huanqiu Shibao Article on Washington Drawing India in Against China,” Beijing, Renmin Ribao, FBIS CPP20050708000034, July 7, 2005.; Palash Kumar, “AFP: US Feting India to Balance Power in China-Dominated Asia: Analysts,” Hong Kong AFP, FBIS JPP20050719000088, July 19, 2005.
[3] “Full Text of Joint Statement of China, India,” People's Daily Online, April 13, 2005, available at http://64.233.187.104, accessed on August 13, 2005.; “PM's Statement in the Lok Sabha on the Visits of Chinese Premier and Pakistan President,” Indian Embassy, April 20, 2005, available at http://www.indianembassy.org/press_release/2005/April/15.htm, accessed on August 13, 2005.
[4] “The Joint Communiqué of the Informal Meeting Between the Foreign Ministers of the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the Republic of India,” Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, June 3, 2005, available at http://www.fmprc.gov.cn, accessed on August 13, 2005.
[5] “New Framework for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship,” United States Embassy, New Delhi-India, June 28, 2005, available at http://newdelhi.unembassy.gov/wwwhipr062905.html, accessed on July 14, 2005.
[6] “India - USA Joint Statement,” Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India, available at http://www.dae.gov.in/jtstmt.htm, accessed on July 20, 2005.
[7] Sharon Squassoni, “U.S. Nuclear Cooperation with India: Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, July 29, 2005, pp. 4, 5.
[8] “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions,” U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, 1 January Through 30 June 2002, available at http://www.cia.gov, accessed on August 31, 2005.
[9] “Nuclear Power in India and China,” World Nuclear Association, September 2004, available at http://world-nuclear.org, accessed on February 17, 2005.; Aziz Haniffa, “‘India Will Consume More Energy to Fuel Economic Growth,’ “India Abroad, Vol. 35, No. 46, August 12, 2005, p. A8.
[10] Sunil Saraf, “Prime minister marks beginning of India's commercial breeder,” Nucleonics Week, October 28, 2004, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 17, 2005.
[11] “BARC Commissions Integral Test Loop Facility for AHWR: Banerjee,” The Press Trust of India, April 12, 2005, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.; T. S. Subramanian, “Advanced Heavy Water Reactor Construction Next Year,” The Hindu, October 24, 2003, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.
[12] Estimates in the World Nuclear Association online journal suggest that India has approximately six times more thorium than uranium in its domestic mineral deposits. “Thorium,” Information and Issue Briefs, World Nuclear Association, November 2004, available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf62.htm, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[13] “Thorium,” Information and Issue Briefs, World Nuclear Association, November 2004, available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf62.htm, accessed on September 7, 2005.
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[16] David Albright and Kimberly Kramer, “Separated Civil Plutonium Inventories: Current Status and Future Directions,” Institute of Science and International Security, June 10, 2005, Revised July 8, 2005.; Henry Sokolski, “The India Syndrome - U.S. Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy Melts Down,” The Weekly Standard, August 1, 2005, pp. 15, 16.
[17] Andre Gsponer and Jean-Pierre Hurni, “ITER: The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Implications of Thermonuclear-Fusion Energy Systems,” Independent Scientific Research Institute, Switzerland, August 10, 2005.; Sridhar K. Chari, “India on Way to Joining the Fusion Club,” The Tribune, August 24, 2005, available at http://www.tribuneindia.com, accessed on August 26, 2005.
[18] “India May Test Again Because H-Bomb Failed, U.S. Believes,” Nucleonics Week, Vol. 39, No. 48, November 26, 1998, pp. 1, 9, 10.
[19] “Removal of License Requirements for Exports and Reexports to India of Items Controlled Unilaterally for Nuclear Nonproliferation Reasons and Removal of Certain Indian Entities from the Entity List,” Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Register, Vol. 70, No. 167, August 30, 2005, available at http://www.bxa.gov, accessed on August 30, 2005.
[20] “BARC Commissions Integral Test Loop Facility for AHWR: Banerjee,” The Press Trust of India, April 12, 2005, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.
[21] Aziz Haniffa, “Deadly Arsenals: India, Pakistan Can Have 110 Nuclear Bombs,” India Abroad, Vol. 35, No. 47, pp. A1, A7.; Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals - Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Second Edition, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2005.
[22] “Table 2 Plutonium and HEU Holdings by Country, end 2003, in Tonnes,” Global Stocks of Nuclear Explosive Materials: Summary Tables and Charts,” Institute for Science and International Security, July 22, 2005, Revised August 22, 2005.
[23] Ibid.
[24] “Global nuclear stockpiles, 1945-2002,” The Atomic Scientists Bulletin, available at http://www.thebulletin.org, accessed on September 5, 2005. “China's Fissile Material Stockpile,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, available at http://www.nti.org/db/china/fmstock.htm, accessed on September 19, 2005.
[25] “Britain to ease nuclear sanctions against India,” Press Trust of India via India Info, August 11, 2005, available at http://news.indiainfo.com/2005/08/11/1108uk-india-nuclear.html, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[26] Abbas Razza Khan, “Russia endorses nuclear pact between US and India,” Press Trust of India, September 16, 2005, available at http://www.india-defence.com, accessed on September 16, 2005.
[27] “France Backs India's Nuclear Energy Plans After Winning Sub, Airbus Deal,” Yahoo News, September 12, 2005, available at http://news.yahoo.com, accessed on September 13, 2005.
[28] Foster Klug, “Pakistan Wants Civilian Nuclear Deal,” The Associated Press via The Washington Post, September 8, 2005, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com, accessed on September 8, 2005.
[29] “Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015,” National Intelligence Estimate, National Intelligence Council, December 2001, available at http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/missilethreat2001.pdf, accessed on August 11, 2005.
[30] K. S. Jayaraman, “GSLV Launch Helps Move India Closer To Self-Reliance in Space,” Space News, available at http://209.73.219.100/spacenews/archive03/gslvarch_052003.html, accessed on August 25, 2005.
[31] After delivery of Norwegian Norsk Data ND 100 and ND 500 type computers between 1983 and 1984 and arrival of a U.S. Cray XMP-14 supercomputer in 1987, by September 2002 the Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) developed the ANUPAM-PIV 64-node supercomputer with a speed of 43 giga flops. In 2003, India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) went one giant step further by developing the PARAM Padma which has a speed of one teraflop, a trillion floating point operations per second. “Norsk Data Computers Used in Indian Nuclear Program,” Oslo, Dagbladet, May 4, 1990, FBIS JPRS-TND-90-011, accessed on September 7, 2005.; “India's BARC develops fastest supercomputer in the country,” Asia Pulse, September 16, 2002, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.; Sharad Purohit, R.K. Arora, S.P. Dixit, N. Mohan Ram, P.K. Sinha, V.C.V. Rao, “PARAM Padma - A Teraflops Computing System And High Performance Computing in India,” Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, 2003, available at http://www.cdac.in/html/ctsf/padma/spurohit.asp, accessed on September 5, 2005.
[32] Indrani Bagchi, “India hopes to get sanctions revoked,” Times of India, October 11, 2003, available at http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/880726.cms, accessed on September 11, 2005.; “Foreign Secretary: India Wants ‘More Symmetrical Relationship’ With US,” Mumbai, The Times of India, October 11, 2004, FBIS SAP20041011000006, accessed on August 30, 2005.
[33] “TIFR announces tie-up with HP,” in “India: Pune-Base Supercomputer Param 1000 Announces Tie-Up With Hewlett Packard,” Chennai, Business Line, April 20, 2005, FBIS SAP20050421000073, accessed on August 30, 2005.
[34] “Announcement on U.S.-India Next Steps in Strategic Partnership,” Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S. Department of Commerce, September 2004, available at http://www.bis.doc.gov/News/2004/US-IndiaNextStep.htm, accessed on February 16, 2005.
[35] “Removal of License Requirements for Exports and Reexports to India of Items Controlled Unilaterally for Nuclear Nonproliferation Reasons and Removal of Certain Indian Entities from the Entity List,” Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Register, Vol. 70, No. 167, August 30, 2005, available at http://www.bxa.gov, accessed on August 30, 2005.
[36] Indian Air Force Chief Marshal, Srinivaspuram Krishnaswamy stated as early as October 2003 that India has begun “conceptualizing” space weapons command systems and operational command. In November 2003 and again in December 2004, India made a potentially significant step in this direction by signing onto Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), a space platform that could be used for improving the accuracy of its missile systems and expansion into other weapons systems. “IAF Working on Weapon Platforms in Space,” The Hindu, October 7, 2003, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 24, 2005.; “India Working on Space Weapons: IAF Chief,” The Press Trust of India, available at http://www.rediff.com, accessed on August 29, 2005.; “Memorandum of Understanding Between the Russian Aviation and Space Agency and the Indian Space Research Organization on Cooperation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for Peaceful Purposes,” The Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Republic of India, November 11-13, 2003, available at http://www.india.mid.ru/summits/01_07.html, accessed on August 31, 2005.; “India and Russia to Revive Glonass,” Flight International, December 14, 2004, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 30, 2005.
[37] Vivek Raghuvanshi, “Pakistan's Missile Tests Jolts India,” Defense News, August 22, 2005, p. 50.
[38] Ranjit Kumar, “China Gave ‘Babar’ to Pakistan,” in “India: US Military Expert Says Pakistani ‘Babar’ Missile Imported from China,” New Delhi Navbharat Times, FBIS SAP20050823000021, August 23, 2005, August 26, 2005.
[39] Prasun K. Sengupta, “Babur's Flight,” in “India: Report Notes China's Involvement in Pakistan's Hatf VII Cruise Missile,” New Delhi Force, FBIS, September 9, 2005, SAP20050909000103, accessed on September 10, 2005.
[40] G. Parthasarathy, “Cruise Missiles in Neighborhood - A Result of Sino-Pak Growing Nexus,” Bharat Rakshak, August 29, 2005, available at http://www.bharat-rakshak, accessed on August 30, 2005.
[41] “Proliferation: Threat and Response,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, available at http://www.dod.gov, accessed on August 28, 2005, p. 24.; Amitabh Mattoo, “Indian Agni-II Missile Said Aimed at China,” Calcutta The Telegraph, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 25, 2005.
[42] Rahul Bedi, “New Delhi Reveals Latest Schedule for Missile Tests,” Jane's Defense Weekly, November 12, 2003, p. 4
[43] “Indian Defence News,” New Delhi, Chanakya Aerospace and Maritime Review, Vol. 31, No. 5, May 1, 2005, FBIS SAP20050623000018, accessed on August 15, 2005.; “Proliferation: Threat and Response,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, available at http://www.dod.gov, accessed on August 28, 2005, p. 24.
[44] Press reports as early as 1999 suggest an imminent test of India's ICBM. “India to Test New Long-Range Ballistic Missile: Official,” AFX News Limited, November 7, 1999, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 25, 2005.; “India: Ballistic Missiles Under Development,” BBC Monitoring South Asia, May 18, 1999, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 25, 2005.
[45] Mark Gorwitz, “The Indian Strategic Nuclear Submarine Project - An Open Literature Analysis,” December 1996, available at http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/india/sub/ssn/, accessed on August 29, 2005.
[46] “Indian Military Bolstered by Foreign Purchases, Cooperation,” JINSA Online, April 23, 2004, available at http://www.jinsa.org, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[47] “No Gorshkov, but Accords Look to the Future,” Times of India via Bharat-Rakshak, February 9, 2 002, available at http://www.bharat-rakshak.com, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[48] “Bellona To Seek Intl Action Over Sunken Russian Sub,” Moscow Interfax, FBIS CEP20050830950045, August 30, 2005.
[49] Vivek Raghuvanshi, “Salvaging the Sagarika: India Seeks Russian, Israeli Help in Missile Development,” Asia and Pacific Rim, Defense News, February 21, 2005, p. 14.
[50] T. S. Subramanian, “Prithvi-III Test Fired for First Time,” The Hindu, October 28, 2004, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 11, 2005.
[51] Rahul Roy-Chaudry, “India-Defense: India Developing Sea-Based Missile System,” IPS- Inter Press Service, September 29, 1994, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 25, 2005.; “N-Submarine Project Yet to Take Off,” The Hindu, October 28, 1998, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.
[52] “New Army ‘Doctrine’ Ready for Release,” India, The Statesman, October 24, 2004, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 11, 2005.
[53] “Navy: Busy Year of War Games Ahead,” in “Indian Navy to Join War Games with US, Russia, France,” New Delhi, The Asian Age, July 5, 2005, FBIS, SAP20050715000020, accessed on September 7, 2005.; Shashank Sinha, “Indian Navy Interested in USS Trenton,” in “Indian Defense Think Tank Says ‘USS Trenton’ May Be ‘Great Asset’ for Navy,” New Delhi, India Defense Consultants, August 15, 2005, FBIS SAP20050815000054, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[54] “Talks with India Remained Warm for Six Months, Now There is Chilliness: Chief of Naval Staff,” in “Pakistan Gets 8 P-3C Orion Aircraft, Two Frigates from US; CNS Lauds US Help,” Rawalpindi, Nawa-e Waqt, September 1, 2005, FBIS SAP20050902000048, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[55] China is not the only concern of Indian strategists charting developments in the Indian Ocean. The U.S. driven Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), under which illicit transfers are interdicted during shipment, has also come under scrutiny. A number of Indian critics have expressed concern that the United States is manipulating their partnership to gain “back door entry” into the Indian Ocean for the PSI, which many deem as already on shaky legal ground given Part VII of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. India's own reluctance to fall in line with the United States has been made particularly evident with the omission of PSI from the Indo-U.S. joint statement and India's refusal to join August 2005 U.S.-organized multinational PSI naval exercises in Southeast Asia. Seema Mustafa, “India Surrenders Ocean to US,” in “India Said to Surrender Ocean to US in Defense Pact,” New Delhi, The Asian Age, FBIS SAP20050706000017, July 2, 2005.; Ranjit Kumar, “India Did Not Join the PSI Military Exercise,” in India Stays Away from Joint Naval Exercise to Monitor Illegal Arms Transport,” New Delhi, Navbharat Times, August 17, 2005, FBIS SAP20050817000023, accessed on September 7, 2005.
[56] “Annual Report - 2003-2004,” Ministry of Defence, Government of India, available at http://mod.nic.in/reports/MOD-English2004.pdf, accessed on August 15, 2005.
[57] “The Military Power of the People's Republic of China,” A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year 2005, Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 2005, pp. 23, 24, 33.
[58] Ibid.
[59] Rajat Pandit, “Wait For Scorpene May Soon Be Over,” The Times of India, March 16, 2005, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 11, 2005.
[60] “China, India Seek Cooperation in Global Oil Quest,” Embassy of the People's Republic of China in India, April 4, 2005, available at http://www.chinaembassy.org, accessed on August 15, 2005.
[61] “India, China to Set Up Joint Group to Forge Oil Cooperation Deals,” New Delhi, The Press Trust of India, August 9, 2005, FBIS SAP20050809000099, accessed on August 10, 2005.
[62] Penny Macrae, “AFP: India Says China Oil Cooperation at Early Stage,” Hong Kong Agence France Presse, August 26, 2005, FBIS JPP20050826000017, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 26, 2005.; “China Beats India to Acquire PetroKazakhstan,” New Delhi, The Press Trust of India, August 22, 2005, FBIS SAP20050822000064, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 26, 2005.
[63] “The Military Power of the People's Republic of China,” A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year 2005, Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 2005, p. 33.
[64] “India says China oil cooperation at early stage, will still compete,” Agence France Presse, August 26, 2005, available at http://www.yahoo.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.
[65] “The Military Power of the People's Republic of China,” A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year 2005, Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, 2005, pp. 21, 22.
[66] Ibid.
[67] “Defense Expenditure, 2004-2005,” Ministry of Defense, Government of India, available at http://mod.nic.in/aboutus/body.htm#as6, accessed on September 8, 2005.
[68] Richard F. Grimmett, “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1997-2004,” Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, August 29, 2005, available at http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/52179.pdf, accessed on September 9, 2005.
[69] Ibid.
[70] Ibid.
[71] “Mei Dui Yin Kaiqi He Da Men - Yu Lianhe Yindu Ezhi Zhongguo Fazhan,” (The United States Opens the Nuclear Door to India - In a Desire to Contain China's Growth), People's Daily, July 20, 2005, available at http://www.people.com.cn, accessed on August 14, 2005.
[72] “Mei Yin He Hezuo Shi Yi Zhao Xianqi Hai Shi Yiji Miaozhao?” (Is Nuclear Cooperation between the United States and India a Dangerous or Clever Chess Move?), CCTV.com, July 2 1, 2005, available at http://bbs.cctv.com.cn, accessed on August 14, 2005.; “Mei Dui Yin Kaiqi He Da Men - Yu Lianhe Yindu Ezhi Zhongguo Fazhan,” (The United States Opens the Nuclear Door to India - In a Desire to Contain China's Growth), People's Daily, July 20, 2005, available at http://www.people.com.cn, accessed on August 14, 2005.
[73] “Indian Defence Officials Watch China- Russia Military Exercises,” New Delhi, The Press Trust of India, FBIS SAP20050823000109, August 23, 2005, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 26, 2005.
[74] “Zhong Yin Nengyuan Xuqiu Zengjia Tiaozhan Meiguo?” (Will China and India's Energy Needs Increase the Challenge to the United States?), Muzi News, Latelinenews.com, August 1 2, 2005, available http://latelinenews.com/ll/chinese/1374352.shtml, accessed on August 14, 2005.; Christopher Bodeen, “China, India Conduct Joint Naval Exercise,” The Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 14, 2003, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com, accessed on November 14, 2003.
[75] “Zhong Yin E Goujian Zhanlue Sanjiao - Xin Anquan Guanzhu Daoxia Chuanmian Hezuo,” (China, India, and Russia Build a Strategic Triangle - Their New Concept of Security Spans All Areas) Army News, Tom.com, June 10, 2005, available at http://army.news.tom.com/1019/1021/2005610-37971.html, accessed on August 14, 2005.; “Russia-China-India Maneuvers May Be Held in 2006,” Moscow, Agentstvo Voyennukh Novostey, August 26, 2005, FBIS CEP20050826027004, accessed on August 26, 2005.
[76] George Perkovich, India's Nuclear Bomb - The Impact on Global Proliferation, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1999.
[77] “India, United States Not Ganging Up Against China, Indian PM,” Agence France Presse, August 3, 2005, available at http://news.yahoo.com, accessed on August 15, 2005.; “India, US Ink Pact for Comprehensive Defence Cooperation,” The Press Trust of India, June 29, 2005, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 17, 2005.
[78] Sheela Bhatt, “The Big Question: Can Singh Emulate China?” India Abroad, Vol. 35, pp, A1, A12.
[79] Dr. Subhash Kapila, “China-India Strategic Alliance - Should Not Be Unthinkable: An Analysis,” South Asia Analysis Group, Paper No. 1375, May 12, 2005, available at http://www.saag.org, accessed on August 13, 2005.
[80] “Treat India Like Other N-States,” The Hindu, October 29, 1998, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.; S. G. Roy, “Gandhi: India Will Reprocess Nuclear Fuel,” United Press International, August 1 1, 1 982, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 31, 2005.
[81] “Engaging India as a Global Strategic Partner,” Republican Policy Committee, United States Senate, July 19, 2005, available at http://rpc.senate.gov/_files/July1905IndiaDF.pdf, accessed on September 8, 2005.
[82] “PRC Scholar ‘Broad Prospects’ for India- Russia-China Strategic Triangle,” Beijing, Beijing Review, FBIS CPP20050804000129, available at http://www.lexis.com, accessed on August 15, 2005.