The Polynya Signature Simulation Method (PSSM) is applied to Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations from different Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft for 2002–05 to analyze the polynya area in the Ross Sea (Ross Ice Shelf polynya (RISP) and Terra Nova Bay polynya (TNBP)) and off the Adélie Coast (Mertz Glacier polynya (MGP)), Antarctica, on a sub-daily scale. The RISP and the MGP exhibit similar average total polynya areas. Major area changes (>10000km2; TNPB: >2000km2) occur over a range of 2–3 to 20 days in all regions. Sub-daily area changes are largest for the MGP (5800km2) and smallest for the TNBP (800km2), underlining the persistence of the forcing of the latter. ARTIST sea-ice (ASI) algorithm concentration maps obtained using 89 GHz Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) data are compared to PSSM maps, yielding convincing agreement in the average, similarly detailed winter polynya distribution. Average ASI algorithm ice concentrations take values of 25–40% and 65–80% for the PSSM open-water and thin-ice class, respectively. The discrepancy with expected values (0% and 100%) can be explained by the different spatial resolution and frequency used by the methods. A new land mask and a mask to flag icebergs are introduced. Comparison of PSSM maps with thermal ice thickness based on AVHRR infrared temperature and ECMWF ERA-40 data suggests an upper thickness limit for the PSSM thin-ice class of 20–25 cm.

Sea-ice thickness is a key parameter for estimates of salt fluxes to the ocean and the contribution to global thermohaline circulation. Observations of sea-ice thickness in the Southern Ocean are sparse and difficult to collect. An exception to this data gap is time-series data from upward-looking sonars (ULS) which sample the drifting sea ice continuously. In this study we use ULS data from ten different locations over periods ranging from 9 to 25 months to compare with model data. Although these data are limited in space and time, they provide a qualitative indication of the ability of global climate models (GCMs) to adequately represent Southern Ocean sea ice. We compare the ULS data to output from four different GCMs (BCCR-BCM2.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, UKMO-HadCM3 and NCAR CCSM3) which were used for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They simulate the ice thickness reasonably well, but in most cases average model ice thickness is less than thicknesses derived from ULS data. The seasonal cycle produced by the models correlates well with the ULS except for locations near Maud Rise, where in summer the ULS find a low concentration of thick ice floes. This overly thin ice will have implications for both the salt flux to the central Weddell Sea during the growth season and the freshwater flux during the melt season. Using satellite-derived ice-drift data to calculate transports in the Weddell Sea, we find that the underestimation of ice thickness results in underestimated salt fluxes.

The Arctic sea ice has been pointed to as one of the first and clearest indicators of climate change. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1979 through 2005 now indicate a significant –8.4±1.5% decade–1 trend (99% confidence level) in September sea-ice extent, a larger trend than earlier estimates due to acceleration of the decline over the past 41 years. There are differences in regional trends, with some regions more stable than others; not all regional trends are significant. The largest trends tend to occur in months where melt is at or near its peak for a given region. A longer time series of September extents since 1953 was adjusted to correct biases and extended through 2005. The trend from the longer time series is –7.7±0.6% decade–1 (99%), slightly less than from the satellite-derived data that begin in 1979, which is expected given the recent acceleration in the decline.

A sea-ice mass-balance monitoring study including ice extent and thickness observations was started at Kongsfjorden (79˚N, 12˚E), Svalbard, in 2003. The inner part of Kongsfjorden is usually covered by seasonal fast ice <1m thick, initially forming between December and March and persisting until June. Ice extent is visually observed from the mountain Zeppelinfjellet, and documented by ice maps and photographs several times a week. Ice and snow thickness is measured regularly at four sites from drillholes. Time series of ice extent in four areas east of Ny-Ålesund (total area 120 km2) were calculated for 2003–05. By combining extent with thickness data, ice-mass time series were calculated. As also observed earlier than 2003 in other studies, the fast ice varies interannually in extent and thickness. Among the factors which control the fast-ice evolution are physical and meteorological parameters, and the geographical setting of Kongsfjorden, with its coastline and a group of islands in its inner part having a protective effect. This study is ongoing and a major aim is to identify and quantify connections between the Kongsfjorden fast-ice evolution and climate parameters.

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0˚C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.