We present the results of pollen analysis performed on an ice core recovered from Nevado Sajama, Bolivia, dated to 25 ka BP. Low pollen concentrations from 25 to 15 ka BP are consistent with the scenario of an expanded ice cap surrounded by sparse vegetation and cold conditions on the Altiplano during the Last Glacial Maximum. After 15 ka BP, more pollen is present and percentages show vegetation response to climate fluctuations during the late Pleistocene. Initially, high concentrations of Poaceae pollen are replaced by Asteraceae pollen, suggesting the occurrence of dry conditions towards the end of the Bølling–Allerød/Guantiva interstadial. A deglacial climatic reversal is registered in the pollen record by an abrupt decline in Asteraceae and maximum percentages of Poaceae, indicating wet conditions during 14–12 ka BP. The climate changed abruptly to warm and dry after 12 ka BP, but vegetation remained in disequilibrium with climate until 10 ka BP. Pollen results indicate dry conditions at the beginning of the Holocene, with humidity increasing steadily until 8.5 ka BP. Decreased pollen concentration values (used as a moisture availability proxy) place the mid-Holocene dry period between 8 and 5 ka BP. This was followed by wetter conditions to the present day.

Although the glaciers in the Antarctic periphery make up a large fraction of all mountain glaciers and ice caps on Earth, a detailed glacier inventory of the region is lacking. We compile such an inventory, recording areas, area-altitude distributions, terminus characteristics and volume estimates. Glaciers on the mainland are excluded. The inventory is derived from the Antarctic Digital Database and some manual digitization. We additionally rely on satellite imagery, digital elevation models and a flowshed algorithm to classify ice bodies. We find 1133 ice caps and 1619 mountain glaciers covering a total of 132 867 ± 6643 km2. Estimated total volume corresponds to 0.121 ± 0.010 m sea-level equivalent. Of the total glacier area, 99% drains either into ice shelves (63%) or into the ocean (36%). The inventory will provide a database for glacier mass-balance assessments, modelling and projections, and help to reduce the uncertainties in previous studies.

Crevasse initiation is linked to strain rates that range over three orders of magnitude (0.001 and 0.163 a-1) as a result of the temperature-dependent nonlinear rheological properties of ice and from water and debris inclusions. Here we discuss a small cold glacier that contains buried crevasses at and near an ice divide. Surface-conformable stratigraphy, the glacier’s small size, and cold temperatures argue for limited rheological variability at this site. Surface ice-flow velocities of (1.2-15.5) ± 0.472 m a- 1 imply classic saddle flow surrounding the ice divide. Numerical models that incorporate field-observed boundary conditions suggest extensional strain rates of 0.003-0.015 a- 1 , which fall within the published estimates required for crevasse initiation. The occurrence of one crevasse beginning at 50 m depth that appears to penetrate close to the bed suggests that it formed at depth. Field data and numerical models indicate that a higher interior stress at this crevasse location may be associated with steep convex bed topography; however, the dynamics that caused its formation are not entirely clear.

The dynamic/thermodynamic shallow-ice model SICOPOLIS is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Paleoclimatic spin-ups from 125 ka BP until today, as well as future-climate experiments 500 years into the future, are carried out with three different grid spacings, namely 20, 10 and 5 km. The scenarios are a subset of those specified by the SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) community effort. The bed topography includes improved troughs for Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq and Petermann glaciers, processed by an algorithm that preserves shape, orientation and continuity of the troughs on the 5 km scale. Comparison of simulated and observed present-day surface velocities shows that these ice streams and outlet glaciers are resolved with different accuracies, ranging from poor (20 km grid) to reasonably good (5 km grid). In the future-climate experiments, the simulated absolute ice volumes depend significantly on the resolution, while the sensitivities (ice volumes relative to the constant-climate control run) vary only by a few centimeters of sea-level equivalent.

Bering Glacier, Alaska, USA, has a ∼20 year surge cycle, with its most recent surge reaching the terminus in 2011. To study this most recent activity a time series of ice velocity maps was produced by applying optical feature-tracking methods to Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery spanning 2001-11. The velocity maps show a yearly increase in ice surface velocity associated with the down-glacier movement of a surge front. In 2008/09 the maximum ice surface velocity was 1.5 ±0.017 km a-1 in the mid-ablation zone, which decreased to 1.2 ±0.015 km a-1 in 2009/10 in the lower ablation zone, and then increased to nearly 4.4 ± 0.03 km a-1 in summer 2011 when the surge front reached the glacier terminus. The surge front propagated down-glacier as a kinematic wave at an average rate of 4.4 ±2.0 km a-1 between September 2002 and April 2009, then accelerated to 13.9 ± 2.0 km a-1 as it entered the piedmont lobe between April 2009 and September 2010. The wave seems to have initiated near the confluence of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Valley as early as 2001, and the surge was triggered in 2008 further down-glacier in the mid-ablation zone after the wave passed an ice reservoir area.

We apply a physically based coupled surface energy balance and snowpack model to a site close to the equilibrium line on Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, over the 2004-08 melt seasons, to explain contributions to the energy available for melting and to quantify the significance of refreezing. The model is forced using in situ meteorological measurements and precipitation downscaled from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Applying a Monte Carlo approach to determine the tunable parameters of the model, we estimate the uncertainty related to the choice of parameter values. Multiple criteria are evaluated to identify well-performing parameter combinations, evaluating the model performance with respect to longwave outgoing radiation, snow and ice temperatures and surface displacement. On average, over the investigated melt seasons (1 June to 15 September) net radiation and sensible heat contributed 90 ± 2% and 10 ± 2%, respectively, to the mean energy available for melting snow and ice. The energy consumed by subsurface heat exchange reduced runoff by 15±2% in 2004 and 49±3% in 2008. Refreezing of meltwater and rain was estimated to be 0.37 ± 0.04 m w.e. a-1 on average over the five seasons, which represents a considerable reduction of mass loss during summer. Our findings suggest that refreezing potentially exerts a decisive control on glacier mass balance in persistently snow- or firn-covered areas.

Ongoing atmospheric warming causes rapid shrinking of glaciers in the European Alps, with a high chance of their near-complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century. Here we present a comparison of three independent approaches to model the possible evolution of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century. The models have different levels of complexity, work at a regional scale and are forced with three scenarios of temperature increase (low, moderate, high). The moderate climate scenario gives an increase in air temperature of ∼2°C and ∼4°C for the two scenario periods 2021-50 and 2070-99, respectively, resulting in an area loss of 60-80% by 2100. In reality, the shrinkage could be even faster, as the observed mean annual thickness loss is already stronger than the modelled one. The three approaches lead to rather similar results with respect to the overall long-term evolution. The choice of climate scenarios produces the largest spread (∼40%) in the final area loss, while the uncertainty in present-day ice-thickness estimation causes about half this spread.

Vestfonna ice cap, northeastern Svalbard, is one of the largest ice bodies in the European Arctic, but little is known about the evolution of its mass balance. This study presents a reconstruction of the climatic mass balance of the ice cap for the period 1979/80-2010/11. The reconstruction is based on calculations using a mass-balance model that combines a surface-elevation-dependent accumulation scheme with a spatially distributed temperature-index ablation model that includes net shortwave radiation. Refreezing is included, based on the basic Pmax approach. The model accounts for cloud-cover effects and surface albedo variations that are calculated by a statistical albedo model. ERA-Interim derived air temperature, precipitation and total cloud-cover data are used as input. Results reveal a mean climatic mass-balance rate of +0.09 ± 0.15 m w.e. a–1 for the study period. Annual balances show a slight, insignificant trend towards less positive values over the study period. Refreezing is estimated to contribute about one-third to annual accumulation, and a significant positive trend in refreezing is present over the study period. The modelling results reveal a significant steepening of the climatic mass-balance gradient and indicate a lengthening of the characteristic 3 month ablation period in recent years.

The role of melting at the base of temperate tidewater glaciers is rarely discussed, and its potential importance for total glacier mass balance and subglacial dynamics is often overlooked. We use Columbia Glacier, Alaska, USA, as an example of a temperate tidewater glacier to estimate the spatial distribution of basal melt due to friction both before and during the glacier’s well-documented retreat since the early 1980s. Published data on glacier surface and bed profiles, ice-flow velocities and surface melt were collated and used as input data for a two-dimensional basal melt model. We estimate that before the retreat of Columbia Glacier (pre-1980s), mean basal melt amounted to 61 mm a–1, increasing to 129 mma–1 during retreat (post-1980s). According to our calculations, basal melt accounts for 3% and 5% of total glacier melt for the pre-retreat and syn-retreat (i.e. during retreat) glacier profiles, respectively. These calculations of basal melt are an order of magnitude greater than those typically reported in polar glacier settings. Basal melting in temperate tidewater settings may be a non-negligible process affecting glacier mass balance and subglacial dynamics.

This study determines variations in ice extent of Nevado Illimani, Bolivia (16°38' S, 67°44' W), from 1963 to 2009. The results are compared with net accumulation rate variations obtained from a local ice core. We then propose an interpretation of the recent environmental history (last 46 years) of the region based on a study of remotely sensed and ice-core data. From 1963 to 2009, Nevado Illimani lost a total ice area of 9.49 ±1.09 km2, a 35% reduction. Area variations generally followed variations in net accumulation rates during this period. Despite the current glacier area reduction trend, the Nevado Illimani glaciers will not completely disappear in the next few decades.

The dynamics of a surge is manifested in the crevasse patterns: literally, deformation state frozen in ice. This basic observation is utilized as the concept of an automated approach to map and analyze deformation stages and progression of surge kinematics. The classification method allows imagery to be used as geophysical data and is applied to aerial observations (photographic and video imagery, GPS data) collected in September 2011 during the surge of the Bering Glacier–Bagley Ice Valley system, Alaska, USA. As the third dimension that complements two-dimensional imagery, ice-surface elevation is observed using aerial laser altimetry. The classification method builds on concepts from signal processing, geostatistical data analysis and neural networks. Steps include calculation of generalized directional vario functions from image data and composition into feature vectors. The vario function operates as an information filter that retains spatial characteristics at an intermediate scale that captures crevasse spacing, anisotropy and other generalized roughness properties. Association of feature vectors to crevasse classes and hence deformation types employs a connectionist algorithm. In general, the connectionist–geostatistical classification allows the mapping of kinematic changes in crevassed glaciers.

Dedicated to the memory of Austin Post

A basal zone, tens of meters thick, of debris-laden ice was observed in Kamb Ice Stream, West Antarctica, using a video camera lowered into boreholes made by hot-water drilling. The debris content varies, sometimes abruptly, forming a sequence of layers that reflect the complex history of fast ice flow and bed interaction. In most parts, the concentration of debris is low, a few percent by weight, with particles, often mud clots, dispersed in a matrix of clear ice. The nature of the debris distribution can be interpreted in terms of specific time intervals in the history of fast motion of Kamb Ice Stream including processes leading up to the termination of its streaming behavior and possible reactivation.

The 2008/09 surge of central Yulinchuan glacier (CYG) on the northwestern slope of Muztag mountain, Tibetan Plateau, is studied based on satellite remote sensing. The widely used cross-correlation feature-tracking method was used to collect satellite image control points and validate their geometric accuracies, as well as to derive glacier surface velocity. Changes in glacier length and area were also retrieved. Results show that the surge of CYG initiated in May 2008 and terminated in July 2009. Two diffluent glacier termini advanced 590 ± 26 m (5.1 ± 0.2% of the 2004 length) and 182 ± 26m (1.8 ± 0.3%), respectively, and glacier area increased by ∼1.41 ± 0.11 km2 (4.6 ± 0.4% of the 2004 area) during this period. The most significant surge period was October 2008 to March 2009, when most of the terminus advances and area increases occurred. The glacier surface drastically crevassed during this time, as much as 1657 ± 297 m of horizontal surface displacements were produced by surge ice, and maximum surface speed reached 13 ± 1.5 m d-1. Results of transverse and longitudinal velocity profiles revealed two surge waves during this surge of CYG.

We investigate the sensitivity of a distributed enhanced temperature-index (ETI) melt model, in order to understand which parameters have the largest influence on model outputs and thus need to be accurately known. We use melt and meteorological data from two Alpine glaciers and one glacier in the Andes of Chile. Sensitivity analysis is conducted in a systematic way in terms of parameters and the different conditions (day, night, clear-sky, overcast), melt seasons and glaciers examined. The sensitivity of total melt to changes in individual parameters is calculated using a local method around the optimal value of the parameters. We verify that the parameters are optimal at the distributed scale and assess the model uncertainty induced by uncertainty in the parameters using a Monte Carlo technique. Model sensitivity to parameters is consistent across melt seasons, glaciers, different conditions and the daily statistics examined. The parameters to which the model is most sensitive are the shortwave-radiation factor, the temperature lapse rate for extrapolation of air temperature, the albedo parameters, the temperature threshold and the cloud transmittance factor parameters. A parameter uncertainty of 5% results in a model uncertainty of 5.6% of mean melt on Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland.

Despite containing only 14% of the Greenland ice sheet by area, the southeastern sector has the highest accumulation rates, and hence receives ∼30% of the total snow accumulation. We present accumulation rates obtained during our 2010 Arctic Circle Traverse derived from three 50 m firn cores dated using geochemical analysis. We tracked continuous internal reflection horizons between the firn cores using a 400 MHz ground-penetrating radar (GPR). GPR data combined with depth-age scales from the firn cores provide accumulation rates along a 70 km transect. We followed an elevation gradient from ∼2350 to ∼1830m to understand how progressive surface melt may affect the ability to chemically date the firn cores and trace the internal layers with GPR. From the firn cores, we find a 52% (∼0.43 m w.e. a-1) increase in average snow accumulation and greater interannual variability at the lower site than the upper site. The GPR profiling reveals that accumulation rates are influenced by topographic undulations on the surface, with up to 23% variability over 7 km. These measurements confirm the presence of high accumulation rates in the southeast as predicted by the calibrated regional climate model Polar MM5.

We use a physical model to investigate how changes in subglacial hydrology affect ice motion of Antarctic ice streams. Ice streams are modelled using silicone polymer placed over a thin water layer to mimic ice flow dominated by basal sliding. The model ice-stream force balance is calculated and compared directly to the observed force balance of Whillans Ice Stream (WIS). Dynamic similarity between the model and WIS is achieved when their force balances are equivalent. The WIS force balance has evolved over time owing to increased basal resistance. We test two hypotheses: (1) the subglacial water distribution influences the ice-flow speed and thus the force balance; (2) shear margins are locations where transitions in water layer thickness occur. We find that the velocity and force balance are sensitive to pulsed water discharge events and changes in lubrication that result in sticky spots, and that model shear margins tend to overlie water lubrication boundaries. We conclude that local changes in basal lubrication near margins (possibly as a result of the presence of sticky spots or subglacial lakes) influence the stability of ice-stream margin position and may be responsible for large and rapid shifts in margin location.

We have reconstructed the ice thickness distribution of the Morteratsch glacier complex, Switzerland, and used this to simulate its flow with a higher-order 3-D model. Ice thickness was measured along transects with a ground-penetrating radar and further extended over the entire glacier using the plastic flow assumption and a distance-weighted interpolation technique. We find a maximum ice thickness of 350 ±52.5 m for the central trunk of Vadret da Morteratsch, resulting from a bedrock overdeepening. The average thickness of the glacier complex is 72.2 ±18.0 m, which corresponds to a total ice volume of 1.14 ± 0.28 km3. The flow of the glacier is modelled by tuning the rate factor and the sliding parameters taking into account higher-order terms in the force balance. The observed velocities can be reproduced closely (root-mean-square error of 15.0 m a-1, R2 = 0.93) by adopting a sliding factor of 12 x 10–16 m7 N–3 a-1 and a rate factor of 1.6 x 10-16 Pa-3 a-1 . In this setting, ice deformation accounts for 70% of the surface velocity and basal sliding for the remaining 30%. The modelled velocity field reaches values up to 125 ma-1, but also indicates an almost stagnant front and confluence area, which are crucial for understanding the ongoing glacier retreat.

The aim of this study is to investigate spatial and temporal variations of meteorological variables known to control glacier mass-balance processes, and to demonstrate their relevance in High Asia. The study uses the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database (US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and US National Center for Atmospheric Research), which is global and continuous since 1 January 1948. A positive degree-day (PDD) model of annual glacier-wide summer surface balance, Bs, uses upper-air temperatures at NCEP/NCAR gridpoints near each of six glaciers between 40 and 45° N and between 71 and 87°E and two others near 50° N, 87° E. Model error ranged between 0.19 and 0.41 mw.e., comparable with the observational accuracy of Bs. Sensitivity to temperature change, dBs=dT, ranges between –0.5 and –0.2 m w.e. a–1 °C–1 for these glaciers.