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Dynamic Diffusion with Disadoption: The Case of Crop Biotechnology in the USA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 September 2016

Jorge Fernandez-Cornejo ,
Corinne Alexander  and
Rachael E. Goodhue
Jorge Fernandez-Cornejo
Affiliation:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
Corinne Alexander
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Rachael E. Goodhue
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and member of the Giannini Foundation, both at the University of California-Davis
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Abstract

Controversy over the use of genetically engineered (GE) crops may have induced some farmers to disadopt these seeds, making a traditional diffusion model inappropriate. In this study, we develop and estimate a dynamic diffusion model, examine the diffusion paths of GE corn, soybeans, and cotton, predict the adoption of those crops over the next two years, and explore the main determinants of the diffusion rate. Our estimates indicate that future growth of Bt crops will be slower or negative, depending mainly on the infestation levels of the target pests. Adoption of herbicide-tolerant soybeans and cotton will continue to increase, unless consumer sentiment in the United States changes radically.

Keywords

corncottondiffusion of innovationsgenetic engineeringpest managementsoybeans
Type
Articles
Information
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , Volume 31 , Issue 1 , April 2002 , pp. 112 - 126
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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