We determine the exact large-buffer asymptotics for a mixture of light-tailed and heavy-tailed input flows. Earlier studies have found a ‘reduced-load equivalence’ in situations where the peak rate of the heavy-tailed flows plus the mean rate of the light-tailed flows is larger than the service rate. In that case, the workload is asymptotically equivalent to that in a reduced system, which consists of a certain ‘dominant’ subset of the heavy-tailed flows, with the service rate reduced by the mean rate of all other flows. In the present paper, we focus on the opposite case where the peak rate of the heavy-tailed flows plus the mean rate of the light-tailed flows is smaller than the service rate. Under mild assumptions, we prove that the workload distribution is asymptotically equivalent to that in a somewhat ‘dual’ reduced system, multiplied by a certain prefactor. The reduced system now consists of only the light-tailed flows, with the service rate reduced by the peak rate of the heavy-tailed flows. The prefactor represents the probability that the heavy-tailed flows have sent at their peak rate for more than a certain amount of time, which may be interpreted as the ‘time to overflow’ for the light-tailed flows in the reduced system. The results provide crucial insight into the typical overflow scenario.

The Pólya process is employed to illustrate certain features of the structure of infinitely divisible stochastic point processes in connection with the representation for the probability generating functional introduced by Milne and Westcott in 1972. The Pólya process is used to provide a counterexample to the result of Ammann and Thall which states that the class of stochastic point processes with the Milne and Westcott representation is the class of regular infinitely divisble point processes. So the general representation problem is still unsolved. By carrying the analysis of the Pólya process further it is possible to see the extent to which the general representation is valid. In fact it is shown in the case of the Pólya process that there is a critical value of a parameter above which the representation breaks down. This leads to a proper version of the representation in the case of regular infinitely divisible point processes.

In this article we consider a Monte-Carlo-based method to filter partially observed diffusions observed at regular and discrete times. Given access only to Euler discretizations of the diffusion process, we present a new procedure which can return online estimates of the filtering distribution with no time-discretization bias and finite variance. Our approach is based upon a novel double application of the randomization methods of Rhee and Glynn (Operat. Res.63, 2015) along with the multilevel particle filter (MLPF) approach of Jasra et al. (SIAM J. Numer. Anal.55, 2017). A numerical comparison of our new approach with the MLPF, on a single processor, shows that similar errors are possible for a mild increase in computational cost. However, the new method scales strongly to arbitrarily many processors.

Let X(t) be the virtual waiting-time process of a stable M/G/1 queue. Let R(t) be the covariance function of the stationary process X(t), B(t) the busy-period distribution of X(t); and let E(t) = P{X(t) = 0|X(0) = 0}.

For X(t) some heavy-traffic results are given, among which are limiting expressions for R(t) and its derivatives and for B(t) and E(t).

These results are used to find the covariance function of stationary Brownian motion on [0, ∞).

The winding number problem (Lévy (1940)) concerns the net angle through which the route of a random walk winds about the origin. We consider the problem of finding the winding number for a walk with finite step sizes; the eigenfunction method (Roberts and Ursell (1960)) is shown to be inapplicable because the probability distribution for a sequence of steps of different length depends on the order in which those steps are taken. In the diffusion limit, however, commutivity is restored. We derive the winding number distribution for a diffusion process, starting from a point displaced from the origin, and consider its asymptotic form. An important difference between the finite step and diffusion distributions is that the former possesses finite moments while the latter does not. We compute numerically the finite step distributions for 20000 particles undergoing N = 100000 steps, and compare the results with the diffusion distribution. Even for small winding numbers, perceptible differences between the two distributions appear even for N as large as 100000.

A stochastic dynamical context is developed for Bookstein's shape theory. It is shown how Bookstein's shape space for planar triangles arises naturally when the landmarks are moved around by a special Brownian motion on the general linear group of invertible (2×2) real matrices. Asymptotics for the Brownian transition density are used to suggest an exponential family of distributions, which is analogous to the von Mises-Fisher spherical distribution and which has already been studied by J. K. Jensen. The computer algebra implementation Itovsn3 (W. S. Kendall) of stochastic calculus is used to perform the calculations (some of which actually date back to work by Dyson on eigenvalues of random matrices and by Dynkin on Brownian motion on ellipsoids). An interesting feature of these calculations is that they include the first application (to the author's knowledge) of the Gröbner basis algorithm in a stochastic calculus context.

The estimation of the parameters of a discrete-time semi-Markov process is considered, when the data consist of records of a large number of individuals observed in a specified short period of time. Such a problem may arise in the modelling of intra-urban mobility. Methods of estimation of the parameters are suggested, and a numerical example discussed for the case when the observation period consists of three consecutive time points.

When fractal dimensions are estimated from an observed point pattern, there is some ambiguity as to the interpretation of the quantity being estimated. (The point pattern itself has dimension zero.) Two possible interpretations are described. In the first of these, the observation region is regarded as being held fixed, while observations accumulate with time. In this case, provided the process is stationary and ergodic in time, and the cumulants satisfy certain regularity constraints, the dimension estimates consistently estimate the Rényi moment dimensions of the marginal distribution in space. If the regularity constraints are not satisfied, then different limits can be obtained according to the manner in which the limits are taken.

In the second case, the process is regarded as being stationary and ergodic in its spatial component, time being held fixed. In this case the estimates provide consistent estimates of the initial power-law rates of growth of the moment measures of the Palm distribution, the estimates for successively higher Rényi dimensions estimating the growth rates for successively higher-order moment measures of the Palm distribution.

Several examples are given, to illustrate the different types of behaviour which may occur, including the case where the points are generated by a dynamical system.

The asymptotic behaviour of an occupation-time process associated with alternating renewal processes is investigated in the infinite mean cycle case. The limit theorems obtained extend some asymptotic results proved by Dynkin (1955), Lamperti (1958) and Erickson (1970) for the classical spent lifetime process. Some new phenomena are also presented.

A model of a stochastic froth is introduced in which the rate of random coalescence of a pair of bubbles depends on an inverse power law of their sizes. The main question of interest is whether froths with a large number of bubbles can grow in a stable fashion; that is, whether under some time-varying change of scale the distributions of rescaled bubble sizes become approximately stationary. It is shown by way of a law of large numbers for the froths that the question can be re-interpreted in terms of a measure flow solving a nonlinear Boltzmann equation that represents an idealized deterministic froth. Froths turn out to be stable in the sense that there are scalings in which the rescaled measure flow is tight and, for a particular case, stable in the stronger sense that the rescaled flow converges to an equilibrium measure. Precise estimates are also given for the degree of tightness of the rescaled measure flows.

Conditional stochastic ordering is concerned with the stochastic ordering of a pair of probability measures conditional on certain subsets or sub-σ -algebras. Some basic results of conditional stochastic ordering were proved by Whitt. We extend some of Whitt's results and prove a basic relation between stochastic ordering conditional on subsets and stochastic ordering conditional on σ -algebras. In the second part of the paper we consider the ordering of conditional expectations. There are several different formulations of this problem motivated by different types of applications.

Tail asymptotics of the solution R to a fixed-point problem of the type R=DQ+∑1NRm are derived under heavy-tailed conditions allowing both dependence between Q and N and the tails to be of the same order of magnitude. Similar results are derived for a K-class version with applications to multi-type branching processes and busy periods in multi-class queues.

We derive asymptotic theory for the extremogram and cross-extremogram of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process. We show that the tails of the components of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process may exhibit power-law behavior but, depending on the choice of the parameters, the tail indices of the components may differ. We apply the theory to five-minute return data of stock prices and foreign-exchange rates. We judge the fit of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) model by considering the sample extremogram and cross-extremogram of the residuals. The results are in agreement with the independent and identically distributed hypothesis of the two-dimensional innovations sequence. The cross-extremograms at lag zero have a value significantly distinct from zero. This fact points at some strong extremal dependence of the components of the innovations.

We consider the portfolio optimization problem of maximizing the asymptotic growth rate under a combination of fixed and proportional costs. Expressing the asymptotic growth rate in terms of the risky fraction process, the problem can be transformed to that of controlling a diffusion in one dimension. Then we use the corresponding quasivariational inequalities to obtain the explicit shape together with the existence of an optimal impulse control strategy. This optimal strategy is given by only four parameters: two for the stopping boundaries and two for the new risky fractions the investor chooses at these times.

We use the fact that the Palm measure of a stationary random measure is invariant to phase space change to generalize the light traffic formula initially obtained for stationary processes on a line to general spaces. This formula gives a first-order expansion for the expectation of a functional of the random measure when its intensity vanishes. This generalization leads to new algorithms for estimating gradients of functionals of geometrical random processes.

A study is made of the joint distribution of the number of alleles and segregating sites in a random sample of genes from the infinite-alleles model of population genetics. Tables of the joint distribution are given for representative values of the mutation parameter. A conclusion is that each segregating site has a high probability of delineating an allele type.

In this paper we develop the theory of the W and Z scale functions for right-continuous (upwards skip-free) discrete-time, discrete-space random walks, along the lines of the analogous theory for spectrally negative Lévy processes. Notably, we introduce for the first time in this context the one- and two-parameter scale functions Z, which appear for example in the joint deficit at ruin and time of ruin problems of actuarial science. Comparisons are made between the various theories of scale functions as one makes time and/or space continuous.

We investigate the estimation of the perimeter of a set by a graph cut of a random geometric graph. For Ω ⊆ D = (0, 1)d with d ≥ 2, we are given n random independent and identically distributed points on D whose membership in Ω is known. We consider the sample as a random geometric graph with connection distance ε > 0. We estimate the perimeter of Ω (relative to D) by the, appropriately rescaled, graph cut between the vertices in Ω and the vertices in D ∖ Ω. We obtain bias and variance estimates on the error, which are optimal in scaling with respect to n and ε. We consider two scaling regimes: the dense (when the average degree of the vertices goes to ∞) and the sparse one (when the degree goes to 0). In the dense regime, there is a crossover in the nature of the approximation at dimension d = 5: we show that in low dimensions d = 2, 3, 4 one can obtain confidence intervals for the approximation error, while in higher dimensions one can obtain only error estimates for testing the hypothesis that the perimeter is less than a given number.

Our aim is to estimate the volume-weighted mean of the volumes of three-dimensional ‘particles’ (compact, not-necessarily-convex subsets) from plane sections of the particle population. The standard stereological technique is to place test lines in the plane section, and measure cubed intercept lengths with the two-dimensional particle profiles. This paper discusses more efficient estimators obtained by integrating over all possible placements of the test line. We prove that these estimators have smaller variance than the line transect estimators, and indeed are related to them by the Rao-Blackwell process. In the improved estimators, the cubed intercept length is replaced by a moment of the distance between two points in the section profile. This can be computed as a moment of the set covariance function, which in turn is computable using the fast Fourier transform. We also derive an isoperimetric-type inequality between the improved estimator and the area-weighted 3/2th moment of the profile areas. Finally, we present two practical applications to particles of silicon carbide and to synaptic boutons in brain tissue. We estimate the variance of the technique and the gain in efficiency over line transect techniques; the efficiency improvement appears to be as much as one order of magnitude.

The relationship between the Wiener-Hopf factorisation of matrices and the solution of systems of certain operator equations is discussed in an algebraic setting. It is shown that the study of the waiting time process of the nth arriving group of the general single server bulk queue leads to equations of that type. This system of equations may be considered as an extension of Lindley's waiting-time equation.