In this paper we present results on the concentration properties of the smoothing and filtering distributions of some partially observed chaotic dynamical systems. We show that, rather surprisingly, for the geometric model of the Lorenz equations, as well as some other chaotic dynamical systems, the smoothing and filtering distributions do not concentrate around the true position of the signal, as the number of observations tends to ∞. Instead, under various assumptions on the observation noise, we show that the expected value of the diameter of the support of the smoothing and filtering distributions remains lower bounded by a constant multiplied by the standard deviation of the noise, independently of the number of observations. Conversely, under rather general conditions, the diameter of the support of the smoothing and filtering distributions are upper bounded by a constant multiplied by the standard deviation of the noise. To some extent, applications to the three-dimensional Lorenz 63 model and to the Lorenz 96 model of arbitrarily large dimension are considered.

In a multi-server queueing system in which the customers are of several different types, it is useful to define states which specify the types of customers being served as well as the total number present. Analogies with some problems in statistical mechanics are found fruitful. Certain generating functions are defined in such a way that they satisfy a system of linear equations. Solution of the associated eigenvector problem shows that the steady-state probabilities for states in which all the servers are busy can be represented by a weighted sum of geometric probabilities.

Consider a decision-maker who is in charge of a number of activities. At each of a sequence of decision points in time, he selects—on the basis of their performance—the set of activities to be continued further and allocates his limited resources among them. Activities receiving larger allocations tend to improve their performance, while others receiving smaller allocations tend to deteriorate. We present a controlled random walk model for the progress of these activities. The problem of maximizing the net infinite horizon discounted return is formulated in the framework of Markov decision theory, and existence of optimal strategies established. It is shown that both the optimal selection and allocation strategies exhibit a ‘favoring the leaders' behavior. Finally, explicit solutions to certain special cases are obtained illustrating these results.

Many queues and related stochastic models, and in particular those that have a matrix-geometric stationary probability vector, have steady-state queue-length densities that are asymptotically geometric. The graph of the asymptotic rate η of these densities as a function of the traffic intensity ρ is the caudal characteristic curve. This is an informative graph from which a number of qualitative inferences about the behavior of the queue may be drawn.

A method originating from statistical mechanics (low-density and high-temperature expansions) is used to prove the existence and uniqueness of a stationary regime for switching networks on finite or infinite graphs. The main assumption is that the message (customer) flows circulating through the network are ‘localized' in the sense that, for any message, the probability of having a long path is rapidly decreasing (and, moreover, a path of a ‘typical' message consists of one line). The switching rule combines message-switching and circuit-switching principles. The stationary regime for the network under consideration may be treated as a ‘small perturbation' of the ‘idealized' regime in the totally decoupled network where all the messages have single line paths.

This paper is concerned with everywhere local behaviour of certain classes of random processes which have stationary Gaussian increments. It is shown that for two classes of processes almost all the sample functions have the following property. The supremum of the increments in the neighbourhood of a point is everywhere of larger order than the standard deviation. For a third class of processes it is shown that the supremum is at least of the same order as the standard deviation.

In this paper we compare the distribution of the supremum of the Gaussian random fields Z(P) = ∫CpG(P, P′) dW(P′) and U(P) = ∫CpdW(P'), where CP are circles of fixed radius, dW is a white noise field and G are special deterministic response functions.

The results obtained permit us to establish upper bounds for the distribution of the supremum of Z(P) by applying some well-known inequalities on U(P).

The comparison of the suprema is carried out also, when CP = ℝ2, between fields with different response functions.

A simple model of a neuron is proposed, not intended to be biologically faithful, but to incorporate dynamic and stochastic features which seem to be realistic for both the natural and the artificial case. It is shown that the use of feedback for assemblies of such neurons can produce bistable behaviour and sharpen the discrimination of the assembly to the level of input. Particular attention is paid to bistable devices which are to serve as bit-stores (and so constitute components of a memory) and which suffer a disturbing input due to mutual interference. Approximate expressions are obtained for the equilibrium distribution of the excitation level for such assemblies and for the expected escape time of such an assembly from a metastable excitation level.