Under some regularity conditions, in the supercritical Smith–Wilkinson branching process it is shown that as k, the starting population size, tends to infinity, the rate of convergence of qk, the corresponding extinction probability, to zero is similar to that of:

k–θ, if there exists at least one subcritical state in the random environment space; xkk–α, if there exist only supercritical states in the random environment space; exp , if there exists at least one critical state and the others are supercritical in the random environment space.

Here θ, x, α and c are positive constants determined by the process.

An invariant Φ of a tree T under a k-state Markov model, where the time parameter is identified with the edges of T, allows us to recognize whether data on N observed species can be associated with the N terminal vertices of T in the sense of having been generated on T rather than on any other tree with N terminals. The invariance is with respect to the (time) lengths associated with the edges of the tree. We propose a general method of finding invariants of a parametrized functional form. It involves calculating the probability f of all kN data possibilities for each of m edge-length configurations of T, then solving for the parameters using the m equations of form Φ (f) = 0. We apply this to the case of quadratic invariants for unrooted binary trees with four terminals, for all k, using the Jukes–Cantor type of Markov matrix. We report partial results on finding the smallest algebraically independent set of invariants.

A simple model for the intensity of infection during an epidemic in a closed population is studied. It is shown that the size of an epidemic (i.e. the number of persons infected) and the cumulative force of an epidemic (i.e. the amount of infectiousness that has to be avoided by a person that will stay uninfected during the entire epidemic) satisfy an equation of balance. Under general conditions, small deviances from this balance are, in large populations, asymptotically mixed normally distributed. For some special epidemic models the size of an asymptotically large epidemic is asymptotically normally distributed.

We consider a game-theoretical solution for an optimal stopping problem which we describe in terms of a job-search problem with an infinite population of candidates and an infinite population of posts of varying value. Each candidate finds posts from the post population at unit rate. If a post found is still vacant, a candidate can either accept it or reject it. The reward to a candidate is the value of the post if one is accepted and zero if he never accepts a post. There are no costs for searching, no discounting of future rewards and no recall of previously found posts. The only pressure on a candidate to accept a post comes from the changing rate at which he finds vacant posts (and the values associated with them) as a result of the actions of the other candidates. It is not possible to define optimality for a single candidate without reference to the policies followed by the other candidates. We say a policy π is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) if it has the following property: if all candidates used π and an individual candidate was given the option of changing his policy, then it would not be to his advantage to do so. We first find the optimal value function and optimal policy for the case of a single candidate operating in an environment where the distribution of posts on offer and the chance of finding one both vary with time in a known way. We then show that for the infinite population there is a unique ESS given by a control-limit policy π c, where the control-limit function c is the solution of a given differential equation with a given initial condition. This function c also gives the expected future reward function for any single candidate when all candidates use π c.

Let X1, X2, · ··, Xn be a sequence of n random variables taking values in the ξ -letter alphabet . We consider the number N = N(n, k) of non-overlapping occurrences of a fixed k-letter word under (a) i.i.d. and (b) stationary Markovian hypotheses on the sequence , and use the Stein–Chen method to obtain Poisson approximations for the same. In each case, results and couplings from Barbour et al. (1992) are used to show that the total variation distance between the distribution of N and that of an appropriate Poisson random variable is of order (roughly) O(kS(k)), where S(k) denotes the stationary probability of the word in question. These results vastly improve on the approximations obtained in Godbole (1991). In the Markov case, we also make use of recently obtained eigenvalue bounds on convergence to stationarity due to Diaconis and Stroock (1991) and Fill (1991).

We define a class of two-dimensional Markov random graphs with I, V, T and Y-shaped nodes (vertices). These are termed polygonal models. The construction extends our earlier work [1]– [5]. Most of the paper is concerned with consistent polygonal models which are both stationary and isotropic and which admit an alternative description in terms of the trajectories in space and time of a one-dimensional particle system with motion, birth, death and branching. Examples of computer simulations based on this description are given.

While the convex hull of n d-dimensional balls is not a polytope, it does have an underlying combinatorial structure similar to that of a polytope. In the worst case, its combinatorial complexity can be of order Ω(n[d/2]). The thrust of this work is to show that its complexity is typically much smaller, and that it can therefore be constructed more quickly on average than in the worst case. To this end, four models of the random d-ball are developed, and the expected combinatorial complexity of the convex hull of n independent random d-balls is investigated for each. As n grows without bound, these expectations are O(1), O(n(d–1)/(d+4)), O(1) (for d = 2 only), and O(n(d–1)/(d+3)).

Let , be i.i.d. random closed sets in . Limit theorems for their normalized convex hulls conv () are proved. The limiting distributions correspond to C-stable random sets. The random closed set A is called C-stable if, for any , the sets anA and conv ( coincide in distribution for certain positive an, compact Kn, and independent copies A1, …, An of A. The distributions of C-stable sets are characterized via corresponding containment functionals.

A stochastic process, called reallocatable GSMP (RGSMP for short), is introduced in order to study insensitivity of its stationary distribution. RGSMP extends GSMP with interruptions, and is applicable to a wide range of queues, from the standard models such as BCMP and Kelly's network queues to new ones such as their modifications with interruptions and Serfozo's (1989) non-product form network queues, and can be used to study their insensitivity in a unified way. We prove that RGSMP supplemented by the remaining lifetimes is product-form decomposable, i.e. its stationary distribution splits into independent components if and only if a version of the local balance equations hold, which implies insensitivity of the RGSMP scheme in a certain extended sense. Various examples of insensitive queues are given, which include new results. Our proofs are based on the characterization of a stationary distribution for SCJP (self-clocking jump process) of Miyazawa (1991).

A problem of optimal stopping of the discrete-time Markov process by two decision-makers (Player 1 and Player 2) in a competitive situation is considered. The zero-sum game structure is adopted. The gain function depends on states chosen by both decision-makers. When both players want to accept the realization of the Markov process at the same moment, the priority is given to Player 1. The construction of the value function and the optimal strategies for the players are given. The Markov chain case is considered in detail. An example related to the generalized secretary problem is solved.

The matrix-geometric work of Neuts could be viewed as a matrix variant of M/M/1. A 2 × 2 matrix counterpart of Neuts for M/M/∞ is introduced, the stability conditions are identified, and the ergodic solution is solved analytically in terms of the ten parameters that define it. For several cases of interest, system properties can be found from simple analytical expressions or after easy numerical evaluation of Kummer functions. When the matrix of service rates is singular, a qualitatively different solution is derived. Applications to telecommunications include some retrial models and an M/M/∞ queue with Markov-modulated input.

Using the electric network approach, we give very simple derivations for the expected first passage from the origin to the opposite vertex in the d-cube (i.e. the Ehrenfest urn model) and the Platonic graphs.

Shanthikumar and Yao (1991) introduced some new stochastic order relations to compare the components of a bivariate random vector (X1, X2). As they point out in their paper, even if according to their hazard rate (or likelihood ratio) ordering, the marginal distributions may not be ordered accordingly. We introduce some new concepts where the marginal distributions preserve the corresponding stochastic orders. Also a relation between the bivariate scale model and the introduced bivariate hazard rate ordering is established.

By using large devaitions theory, we give asymptotic formulas for the transient blocking probabilities of M/M/N/N and M (with finite Poissonian sources) M/N/N queues.