Insistence on ASEAN Centrality an Offshoot of Post-Colonialism and Cold-War Stigma

I believe that there is a historical explanation of why Member States which make up ASEAN have acquired an almost obsessive desire to insist on ASEAN Centrality in their dealings among themselves and their external partners. Wary of their past colonial experience of being dictated on in what they can and cannot do, say or think, and having become the arena on which major powers have flexed their military and political muscles in the not-so-distant past, ASEAN has used the principle of centrality as some kind of a mantra or antidote against repeating this bitter part of their colonial past. However, the awareness of insisting on ASEAN Centrality has not found itself in the 1967 Bangkok Declaration, except for a general reference to the avoidance of “external interference” in a preambular paragraph. It was only much later, after forty years, that it was spelled out and became preeminent in the ASEAN Charter which was adopted in 2007, particularly as a response to ASEAN Member States’ growing self-consciousness of weaning themselves away from foreign influence in the post-Cold War era. I can attribute this to the fact that in 1967 when ASEAN was established, the Cold War was still raging and the original ASEAN 5, although trying hard to remove the vestiges of the Cold War stigma that has divided them in earlier attempts at regionalism, have not yet totally weaned themselves from these predispositions. Still in the infancy of their regional experiment, they had not yet discovered their unique brand of multilateralism which, they would discover later on, could serve as an alternative to the push-and-pull pressure of their former colonial masters and the big powers that are raring to once again use this arena in flexing their political and military muscles. In recent times, with a long queue of external partners desiring to engage it, ASEAN has found its niche and has tried to shake off these vestiges of colonialism and Cold War by insisting on ASEAN Centrality as a foundational principle of its existence and a guaranty of its sustainability and relevance in the web of complex power-play in the region.

In analysing the foreign policy of a country, one has to identify the major elements of the foreign policy, for instance, the goals of foreign policy as defined by the power elite, the means to achieve this policy and the effectiveness of the policy. The aims of foreign policy usually include preserving national security, including the survival of the government or political system; maintaining territorial integrity; and promoting the welfare of the population. In addition to these, there are other goals which differ from country to country, depending on its size and capability and the role perception of its power elite. For instance, Indonesia under Sukarno was eager to project its image as that of a major nation, not only in the Southeast Asian region, but beyond. During the New Order period, however, it appears that Indonesia’s economic development became the major concern of the Government. This, however, did not mean that the New Order Government had abandoned its desire to become a regional leader and beyond.

As shown in this study, Indonesia’s foreign policy goals have been influenced by historical experience and the political culture of the elite. Since Indonesia obtained its political independence, partly through armed struggle and partly through diplomatic negotiation, the experience of the independence movement appears to have left an imprint on Indonesia’s foreign policy behaviour. Nationalism has been strong among Indonesia’s political leaders. This was reflected in Indonesia’s persistence in rejecting foreign military bases in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia. The second factor which has a bearing on Indonesia’s foreign policy goals has been its leaders’ perception of their role in world affairs. They consider Indonesia a major power or possibly even a global actor, the desire to be the Chairman of NAM and to hold the APEC Summit are two recent examples.

For global actors, the means for achieving a foreign policy goal are many, because they usually have tremendous resources which they can mobilize. They have both the economic and military capability to influence the course of world events. However, Indonesia’s resources are limited. It is true that Indonesia is rich in natural resources and has a large population, and thus has the potential to become a major power, but not a global power like the United States.

The book, ASEAN Centrality: An Autoethnographic Account by a Philippine Diplomat, written by the Department of Foreign Affairs’ resident ASEAN specialist, Ambassador Elizabeth P. Buensuceso proves the point that diplomats and scholars should join forces to make this world a more coherent, more compassionate and more affable place to live in.

Ambassador Buensuceso’s evocative, direct, uncomplicated but authoritative style is a refreshing departure from the boring reportage of ASEAN reports and treatises on the one hand and on the other, the incomprehensible balderdash of some academics pretending to interpret diplomacy from their distorting lenses of the wrong grade. Never since the renowned former ASEAN Secretary General Rodolfo Severino do we find the rare combination of the academic perspective beautifully blended with the actual experience of a seasoned diplomat as in this author.

ASEAN Centrality is a concept that has, time and again, been put to the test. Once again, the world is experiencing a creeping polarization among the powers and countries of the world. And once again, their chosen theater is the region where the ASEAN Member States are in the midst of two of the most volatile flashpoints in the world—the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea. The region has gotten a new name: the Indo-Pacific arena, resurrected from its uncertain beginnings in 1994 when it was first broached. The big powers are now testing and approaching ASEAN for alliances and cooperation. How ASEAN will take advantage of the opportunities of this renewed interest and not be swept away in the currents of contending forces will once again bring ASEAN Centrality to the fore and its greatest test. Even political instability among its members, as in the current crisis in Myanmar, is a clarion call for ASEAN Centrality to play its part and acquire substantive meaning beyond mere intention.

Ambassador Buensuceso makes an inventory of various definitions and views on ASEAN Centrality, juxtaposes them with her own take, and concludes that indeed, ASEAN Centrality should be understood from the point of view of one who has experienced and practised it. Her definition is fact-based and practical. It can be operationalized, observed, and put to test easily. It can serve the interest of ASEAN in a practical manner. She is able to define her parameters of what constitutes ASEAN Centrality that makes for an interesting, informative reading.

1 January 2017 is a day forever etched in my memory. At the age of sixty-two and with thirty-six years of foreign service experience behind me, I was as excited as a wide-eyed first-year college student on her first day in school. A member state gets to become the Chair of ASEAN only once every ten years, and for a diplomat like me, a once-in-a-lifetime privilege to head ASEAN on its 50th founding anniversary. Chairmanship of ASEAN is a rare opportunity for the Chair to show leadership in the region by delivering important initiatives close to its heart and to advance an agenda which it believes should help shape the political and socio-economic landscape of the region that is facing a great number of challenges. The expectation is even heightened when the Chair is one of the founding members of ASEAN. I was excited and at the same time apprehensive. I was going to become the Chair of ASEAN, specifically the six ASEAN mechanisms based in Jakarta. The task entailed bringing together to a consensus ten disparate and diverse countries, as well as their ten dialogue and other external partners who have their own agenda and interests to push and protect as well.

Autoethnography provides me the platform to describe this unique political and socio-cultural setting that I belonged to as well as to narrate the experience I had with the people I related punctuated by my feelings, behaviour and disposition at the time of my chairmanship. I was going to assume the responsibility of bringing together to a consensus the varying, sometimes conflicting, interests of the most senior and astute diplomats from ASEAN Member States (AMS) and ASEAN’s external partners, in addition to my primary responsibility of assuring that Philippine and ASEAN interests are protected, promoted and defended. This unique cultural community of Jakarta-based diplomats is made up of representatives coming from different backgrounds and motivations. One has to intently study these backgrounds and motivations to determine whether they are allies or adversaries in advancing one’s own objectives. Behind the corny jokes and endless karaoke sessions that we jokingly referred to as prerequisites to becoming an Ambassador to ASEAN are individuals transformed into the fiercest and most tenacious combatants on the debating arena when their national interests are at stake.

Introduction

This chapter examines Indonesia’s foreign policy after the fall of Sukarno and the rise of the military represented by General Suharto. Both eras share many characteristics, but there are also differences. This chapter shows the continuity and change in Indonesia’s foreign policy. Special attention will be given to the decision-makers in foreign policy and their institutions, as well as the conflict between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the military establishment. The dominant role of the military will also be highlighted.

The Rise of the Military in Foreign Affairs

The political history of Indonesia entered a new phase known as the New Order after the 1965 coup. The army, in assuming power, became the most significant socio-political force in the country.

The involvement of the military in politics did not begin with the 1965 coup. In the 1950s, the military was already very politicized. In 1958, for example, General H.A. Nasution put forward a doctrine known as the “Middle Way”. He argued that the military “neither seek to take over the government nor remain politically inactive”. The military claimed the right to have representation in the government, legislature, and administration. This concept, defined the role of the military in both security and non-security fields and served as the origin of the dual-function (dwi fungsi) concept which is now used as the basis for military involvement in politics. In fact, the non-security role of the military continued to grow during the Guided Democracy period and, in 1965, when the Army held its first seminar, the dual function concept was formally proposed. According to this concept, the Indonesian military is both a “military force” as well as a “socio-political force”. In other words, it is legitimate for the military to be involved in both the military and political fields.

After the 1965 coup, the “socio-political” role of the Army was further refined. At the second army seminar held in Bandung in August 1966, military involvement in all aspects of Indonesian life was detailed. In fact, this was the beginning of the large-scale “militarization” process. Government positions at both national and sub-national levels were taken over by military officers. Military personnel even moved into the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In order to understand the roots of the current crisis under King Vajiralongkorn (also styled as Rama X), it is necessary to go back nearly a century in time to 1932, when a small group of officers and civilians launched a coup and forced the absolute monarch King Prajadhipok, or Rama VII, who reigned from 1925 to 1935, to accept a constitution. For the last ninety years, Thailand has been a nominal constitutional monarchy, but its evolution has been complex and significantly different from any other comparable regime. The decades of an often-tortuous relationship between the two core institutions—constitution and monarchy—and particularly the reign of the late King Bhumibol (Rama IX) from 1946 to 2016, have created the system that is now being directly and publicly challenged for the first time since 1932.

Historical Background

The history of the Thai constitutional monarchy can be periodized in various ways, but at least five important stages or phases can be identified. The first stage, lasting from the June 1932 coup until Prajadhipok’s abdication in March 1935, witnessed a prolonged tussle between the new regime led by the commoners of the People’s Party and the royalists loyal to the king and the ancien régime. Although the overthrow of the absolute monarchy had little to do with Siamese public sentiment and there was no significant current of republicanism, the People’s Party represented a critical mass of middle- and lower-ranking officers and officials who resented royal privileges and princely domination of the military and the government. The policy of sending large numbers of Siamese overseas (mainly to Europe) for education, which dated back to the reign of King Chulalongkorn from 1868 to 1910, had produced two generations of well-educated and cosmopolitan officers and civil servants of both royal and non-royal backgrounds. When the two groups returned to Siam and entered government service, the princes generally outranked the commoners, regardless of individual merit, and this unmeritocratic system sowed the seeds of dissent.

Although the 1932 coup occurred without bloodshed and Prajadhipok verbally accepted his new status as a constitutional ruler, the next three years were a tug of war for power between himself and the new regime. In 1933, a “parliamentary coup” by conservative royalists and an anti-government rebellion were both suppressed by the regime.

Vietnam was officially reunified in 1976, and in December that year the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) held its 4th National Congress. Since then the VCP has held national party congresses every five years. The 13th National Congress was held in early 2021 and its deliberations shaped domestic politics in Vietnam in the years to come.

The national party congress has seven main duties: (1) to approve the Political Report of the outgoing Central Committee; (2) to adopt short and long-term socioeconomic development plans; (3) to revise the party’s platform; (4) to amend the party’s statutes; (5) to elect a new Central Committee, which will then elect a new Politburo; (6) to decide on any other matters put before the congress; and (7) to issue a final resolution on the proceedings.

This chapter provides an overview of the 13th National Congress and the resulting turnover in party and state leadership in Vietnam. This chapter is divided into four parts: leadership transition, party-building, combating COVID-19 and a conclusion.

Leadership Transition

Leadership transition in Vietnam is a carefully orchestrated process that culminates every five years in a national party congress that elects new leaders and holds elections for the National Assembly, which in turn selects new government officials. Preparations for a national party congress generally start during the second half of the incumbent Central Committee’s five-year term; this includes the often-contentious task of determining the general composition of the new Central Committee and selecting who is qualified to stand for election. The Central Committee is composed of sectoral groups that are given bloc representation, including local party and government officials, the military, officials who hold senior positions in the government, officials who hold senior posts in the party, and members of the Politburo.

Quotas are set for three age groups: under fifty, fifty to sixty, and sixty-one and over. This is to ensure an orderly generational transition. Party rules also stipulate that Central Committee members should retire at sixty-five years of age and that they cannot serve more than two consecutive terms in the same office. Party rules also provide for a limited number of exemptions to these stipulations based on exemplary performance. In the final year of its term, the outgoing Central Committee often holds a series of plenary sessions where straw polls are conducted before confirming the final list of candidates.

According to the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human-induced climate change is affecting weather and climate extremes in every region, evidenced by the increasing number of adverse weather events around the globe in the past few years. There is no single inhabitable region of earth that has not been affected by climate change, but its impacts differ across regions. For Southeast Asia, the prediction is for more extreme cyclones, uneven increases in temperatures and rainfall, and attendant flooding and inundation in some parts of the mainland.

Climate change is not an anticipated threat but a present and real crisis that has already been affecting Southeast Asia. Tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall, floods, loss of biodiversity, temperature increases and rising sea levels are happening with increasing frequency and high intensity. Some are slow-onset events that take place over extended periods of time (such as temperature increases, rising sea levels, and ocean acidification), while others are fast-onset events (such as tropical cyclones, extreme flooding, and landslides).

The prevailing advice from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is to retire the names of tropical cyclones that were particularly deadly or costly. In the list of fifty-four tropical cyclone names that have been retired, twenty-four of them are associated with countries in Southeast Asia; namely, the Philippines and Vietnam. Names of super typhoons like Haiyan and Mangkhut, familiar to millions of residents in the region, are no longer in use because of the massive casualty numbers and extensive economic damage they have caused.

Southeast Asia suffers disproportionately from climate change. Disproportionality comes from two aspects. First is the region’s disproportionate exposure to the number of climate disasters and extreme weather events. Southeast Asia is already predisposed to natural hazards, with high exposure to multiple geophysical hazards that are not related to climate change. It is prone to earthquakes and tsunamis, such as the 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake. It is also one of the most volcanically active regions. Climate change will compound these hazards. Three countries in Southeast Asia—Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand—suffer the greatest long-term risks of climate change and, according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, were listed among the top ten most affected countries from 2000 to 2019. The burden on Southeast Asian countries to adapt to climate change is therefore exceptionally high.

At the close of Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s administration, we look back at how his centrality in almost all aspects of policymaking and sustained populist appeal has shaped Philippine politics. With its official script and actual actions closely aligned, his government has put in danger many democratic precepts that were painstakingly created after 1986. International indices classify the Philippines under the Duterte government as being in a state of democratic backsliding and an electoral autocracy. Its abysmal human rights record on the war on drugs is the subject of a United Nations report and an International Criminal Court inquiry. Despite the stringent COVID-19 pandemic measures imposed, it has been one of the worst performing governments in the world in reducing the infection rate among its population.

On civil-military relations, three things were evident: (1) the enhanced control of the military by the president; (2) the president’s reliance on the police and the military as preferred policy implementors; and (3) the broadening and institutionalization of the military’s reach into civilian affairs at the subnational level. The balance of civil-military relations was firmly tipped in favour of the presidency, under whose authority the military has been mobilized and deployed domestically on many occasions. President Duterte has deployed (or in local legal parlance, “called out”) the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to wage war against the ISIS-linked terrorists in Marawi, implement martial law in Mindanao, enforce the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, and support the police in the war on drugs. The tasks given to the military in these call-outs do not match their supposed warfighting skillset, or they extend beyond them, and encroach upon domains better performed by government civilian agents. Without contest or opposition from Congress or the Supreme Court, President Duterte successfully instrumentalized the armed forces to carry out controversial government policies. The AFP’s influence in internal security operations was enhanced with a commander-in-chief who trusted and relied on the armed forces more than their civilian counterparts. The domestic deployments of the military expanded and deepened its involvement in local affairs, enabling the armed forces to arrogate for itself tasks previously under the care of civilian agencies, such as provisioning direct humanitarian assistance, gaining it a formal foothold in decisions to end rebellion beyond kinetic operations and to acquire more leverage vis-à-vis local authorities to accomplish their internal security missions.

One of the objectives of Suharto’s foreign policy was to make Indonesia the leader of the Southeast Asian region and beyond. Although Indonesia’s leadership position was more in form than in substance, there was no doubt that Suharto’s Indonesia had played a leading role, at least in Southeast Asia, if not in Asia-Africa.

However, with the 1997 Asian economic crisis and the fall of Suharto in May 1998, Indonesia’s leadership position in Southeast Asia has also declined. In addition, the President is no longer the sole foreign policy maker. The role of parliament becomes important. This postscript examines Indonesia’s foreign policy from the final years of the Suharto period until the early years of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s second-term presidency. The discussion in this postscript will follow the general structure of the book, i.e., it begins with Indonesia and ASEAN, followed by Jakarta’s relations with the six other ASEAN states, especially with Malaysia and Singapore. Its relations with other medium powers and superpowers such as Australia, Japan, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States are also examined. The last section deals with the Middle East, in which Islam in Indonesia’s foreign policy is addressed. This order is mainly followed in accordance with the geographical proximity to Indonesia, which simultaneously reflects Indonesian geopolitical concerns.

Foreign Policy Decision-Making in Post-Suharto Indonesia

Let us look briefly at foreign policy decision-makers in Indonesia. During the New Order period (March 1966 to May 1998), foreign policy was initially in the hands of the military and President Suharto, and over time came to be concentrated in the hands of the president. The parliament was more a rubber stamp than the real decision-maker. Suharto often used his presidential power to decide on foreign policy issues, and his appointed ambassadors did not have to be endorsed by the parliament. However, during the post-Suharto period, especially after the fall of President Habibie, the presidential power was curtailed and ambassadors have to be endorsed by the parliament. This implies that the parliament began to play a role in foreign policy-making. The parliament could also refuse to rectify a treaty signed with a foreign country by the president. This context should be borne in mind when discussing post-Suharto Indonesia’s foreign policy.

There was some optimism that 2021 would mark a turn in the region’s fortunes and offer some respite after what was arguably the worst start to a new decade in living memory. Those hopes did not last long. As it turned out, 2021 was significantly much more of the same. The challenges of the previous year did not so much abate as intensify, putting the region’s resilience to the test.

Plans for a year of strong post-pandemic recovery were dashed as the region was engulfed by new waves of COVID-19 infections as a result of the more contagious Delta and Omicron variants. The reopening of borders and economies had to be delayed, as many Southeast Asian countries resorted once again to lockdowns and tried to quickly inoculate as much of their populations as possible amidst scarce global vaccine supply, especially in the first part of the year.

Meanwhile, it could have been a triumphant year for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The grouping made significant headway with its Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), the world’s largest trade pact. Final ratifications by Australia and New Zealand in November 2021 meant that the RCEP would go live on the first day of 2022. However, any satisfaction over this feat was overshadowed by the coup d’état in Myanmar, which sparked a violent civil conflict and caused strategic and diplomatic ripples beyond Naypyidaw. The military coup put ASEAN at a protracted impasse as the junta resisted the organization’s entreaties to resolve the crisis, including forbidding the ASEAN special envoy to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi. At the same time, ASEAN redeemed a measure of credibility for itself with the bold decision to exclude the Myanmar military leader from its year-end summit, in what Joseph Chinyong Liow views as an indication that “ASEAN was not about to allow the Myanmar crisis to paralyse the organization” (p. 16).

Furthermore, the region was subjected to more strategic headwinds, as the contest between the United States and China for influence in Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region showed little sign of letting up.

COVID-19, combined with intensive security operations and changing international dynamics, kept most local terrorist organizations off balance in 2021. In Indonesia, arrests were high and fatalities low, with terrorists responsible for five deaths, all in Poso, Central Sulawesi. Several attempts at attacks elsewhere, including the March 2021 bombing of Makassar cathedral, resulted in injuries to bystanders, but no deaths, other than the suicide bombers themselves. Almost no one tried to go overseas to join a jihad, and no one came back from Syria or was deported from Turkey.

Malaysia continued to patrol the coast of Sabah, occasionally deporting or killing Abu Sayyaf Group suspects, but no arrests of Malysians on terrorism charges took place during the year, either in Sabah or the rest of the country. In the Philippines, the military continued to try and “neutralize” top leaders, with top pro-ISIS leaders among those killed. Singapore arrested a few citizens with violent extremist sympathies. A Singaporean teenager arrested in December 2020 remains the only Southeast Asian detained for far-right sympathies. He reportedly wanted to attack two mosques in Singapore on the anniversary of the Christchurch, New Zealand shootings.

The return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan raised concerns of possible renewed activity of al-Qaeda in the region or of a blowback to Southeast Asia of heightened activity from ISIS–Khorasan, the so-called province of Islamic State in Afghanistan. At least in the short term, these were probably overdrawn. While many Muslims celebrated the victory of a Muslim army over the United States, there were no immediate candidates for a partnership with al-Qaeda, even if the Taliban return gave the latter state protection. Its old partner, Jemaah Islamiyah, had no interest in resuming an affiliation and in any case since 2019 had become the target of a major crackdown by police. Its immediate aim was organizational survival, not global jihad. Pro-ISIS groups in Indonesia, as elsewhere, saw al-Qaeda as the enemy. Indeed, if Indonesian authorities were worried about outside influence serving as inspiration for violence at home, the source was more likely to be ISIS–Khorasan attacks on the Taliban rather than anything al-Qaeda was doing.

I am delighted that my book Indonesia’s Foreign Policy under Suharto: Aspiring to International Leadership (Singapore: Times Academic Press, 1996) is now reissued with a postscript.

When the original edition of the book was published, I received feedback from many Indonesian scholars. I was pleasantly surprised. Not long after that Lembaga Penelitian, Pendidikan dan Penerangan Ekonomi dan Sosial (LP3ES), a leading academic publisher in Jakarta, asked for my permission to translate the book into Bahasa Indonesia. I gladly consented. The Indonesian version (Politik Luar Negeri: Indonesia di Bawah Soeharto) was to be published in early May 1998, a few weeks before the downfall of President Suharto. Therefore, I included a short postscript for the Indonesian edition, covering the last two to three years of his rule. I was informed that Politik Luar Negeri had become a major reference book for the politics and international relations courses at least at the University of Indonesia in Jakarta and Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta. I was so pleased that when I met some lecturers and graduates from these universities, they often discussed the book with me. I felt very honoured and encouraged.

In 2019, I received an unexpected request from an editor of the LP3ES in Jakarta that they wanted to reissue the Indonesian version of the book. He told me that there were still demands on the book. Students and scholars are still looking for the book. They asked me to write a new postscript for the book, but I did not have the time to do so as I was busy with my projects. I proposed to write a new preface, explaining briefly why the book, without revision, is still relevant to the present situation. The LP3ES agreed and the book was eventually republished in October 2019.

The reissuing of Politik Luar Negeri made me re-read the original version of Indonesia’s Foreign Policy under Suharto. The book was published when I was still teaching in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore (NUS). It took me several years to complete writing the book. Two chapters had been published in Asian Survey before the book was published. I benefited from the discussions with friends and colleagues in writing the manuscript.

China’s Foreign Policy and Security Strategy

China’s continuing growth in power and influence is arguably the single most important question unfolding in international security and politics. By most measures, China has already completed a regional power transition, with the regional distribution of its capabilities and wealth changing rapidly over the past generation. For instance, China’s share of the Asia-Pacific’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew from 7 per cent in 1988 to 46 per cent in 2014, while Japan’s share fell from 72 per cent in 1988 to 24 per cent today. During this period, China’s GDP saw a thirty-fold increase to more than US$10 trillion and it is now the second-largest economy in the world. Its GDP per capita hovers at $10,000 and its military spending currently accounts for nearly 10 per cent of total global military expenditures.

A delicate balance of continuity and change in the Chinese leadership’s priorities appears to undergird its broader and longer-term foreign and security policy strategy. The regime continues to be guided by the overarching tenet that maintaining a peaceful and stable external security environment is essential for continued structural reforms, domestic growth and development. This core idea builds from Deng Xiaoping’s vision in the early 1980s where he concluded that the world was tending towards peace and development, that the likelihood for major, global wars were diminishing, and as such China could expect and benefit from a stable international environment to carry out its much-needed domestic reform and development. This basic principle was continued under Deng’s successors with such principles as the “new security concept” and “China’s peaceful development”.

Reaffirming these preceding strategic concepts, the current Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, presented the “Chinese dream” upon taking the helm. The concept has been linked to Xi’s call for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, achieved through “good external conditions for China’s reform, development, and stability”. The vision promotes two major aspirations that are of significance to the regime: first, the vision to build a “moderately well-off society” by this year, the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party; and, second, the vision of becoming a fully industrialized nation in under three decades, by 2049, the hundredth anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.

An eventful twelve months saw Southeast Asia beset by a number of familiar challenges. In some respects, the year began where the previous left off, with the COVID-19 pandemic threatening to take more lives and cause further damage to regional economies as new variants of the virus circulated. Not unlike the preceding year, the pandemic hampered hopes for a return to a more normal diplomatic schedule comprising in-person meetings, with many having to continue being conducted over sub-optimal virtual platforms. Indeed, this state of affairs was used to explain the delay in the completion of the much-awaited Code of Conduct on the South China Sea between China and ASEAN, which was originally targeted for 2021.

At the same time, the year also witnessed several new—in some cases, unexpected—developments that further complicated the conduct of regional affairs. The election of a new president in the United States was met with, in some sense, a sigh of relief from regional states as it signalled a return to a more predictable and familiar—but by no means straightforward—tone and tenor in relations with Washington. Nevertheless, American re-engagement in the Indo-Pacific has also occasioned the emergence of new Washington-led initiatives in the region that created ripples that Southeast Asian states have had to adjust to. Arguably the biggest test for ASEAN over the last year, however, must surely be developments in Myanmar; specifically, how to respond to the seizure of power by the military and creation of the State Administration Council (SAC) government, whose credibility and legitimacy were challenged both domestically and internationally. To be sure, the question of how to manage the fallout from the military coup in Myanmar exercised ASEAN tremendously as the international spotlight shone harshly on the organization.

The Persistent Cloud of COVID-19

For the governments of Southeast Asia, there is no gainsaying that COVID-19—and its impact on their respective economies and societies—persisted as a hangover from the previous year.

Despite initial success in containing the virus via prompt and strict social distancing measures in some Southeast Asian countries, the appearance of the more infectious Delta variant quickly placed the region back on the defensive as governments scrambled to reimpose lockdowns and movement controls.