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The Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party's 11th Central Committee that convened in December 1978 marked the beginning of a new phase in China's economic development. This article examines the major development policies and broad economic trends since 1978, and assesses the prospects for future growth. Section I sketches the economic legacies of the 1970s that shaped the economic policies and performance of the current period. Section II outlines the new development strategy and compares it with the strategies of the past. The rate of economic growth and structural changes are discussed in Section III. Section IV summarizes the findings and concludes with brief comments on the major constraints on future economic growth. One important issue, economic reform of the system, has been deliberately omitted because (with the exception of those in the agricultural sector) they are still in an experimental stage. While the focus of this study is on macro-economic policies and trends, these issues are closely related to micro-economic developments because economic policies are based on the leadership's perspective on developments at the micro level and economic trends reflect the implementation of macro policies by the micro-economic units.
The period 1978–83 saw swift escalation of earlier policies to promote rapid fertility decline in China. The government attempted to remove pronatalist economic incentives and replace them with economic benefits to one-child families and economic penalties for those bearing two or more children. China's family planning programme became increasingly compulsory in tone and coercive in methods. The single-minded pursuit of low fertility and low population growth rates has thus far been successful, though an effective political reaction against the policy is possible in the future. Meanwhile, the field of demography, the scientific study of population, has once again become respectable in China and the country's demographers are gaining rapidly in sophistication. After three decades of statistical secrecy, the government has begun to release relatively detailed demographic data, thus greatly increasing world understanding of China's population situation.