The return of the Taliban in August 2021, while abrupt, was not an unforeseen phenomenon. Although European Union (EU) policy makers refused to accept the scenario in advance, the Taliban's return was the culmination of a protracted process marked by the gradual expansion of their influence and control over territories in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of United States (US) troops was merely a tipping point. Still, the Taliban's progression was observed and documented over several years, indicating a complex interplay of regional, political and military dynamics. It was also the result of the failures of the Government of Afghanistan (GOA), which lacked legitimacy and fundamentally was unable to tackle corruption, improve security and provide political stability within the country. The 2019 presidential election exemplified this. Unfolding amid a challenging backdrop and delays, voting commenced on 28 September 2019. The election was marked by the lowest voter turnout in modern Afghan history, highlighting the profound impact of electoral insecurity on political participation. This low turnout was a clear indicator of the challenges and apprehensions faced by the Afghan populace, reflecting concerns over safety and the credibility of the electoral process (SIGAR 2021). With President Ghani's constitutional tenure expiring four months prior and the US already engaged in negotiations with the Taliban in Doha, there were suggestions of postponing the elections and establishing an interim government until the peace talks concluded. Despite these circumstances, President Ghani proceeded with the elections, a move widely seen as an effort to bolster his international legitimacy rather than in the best interest of the Afghan state (Cookman 2020). Following prolonged disputes and delays, the election results were finally announced in February 2020. President Ghani was re- elected with 50.64 per cent of the vote compared to Abdullah Abdullah's second place, 39.52 per cent of the vote (BBC News 2020).

February 2020 was the same month President Trump announced the unilateral decision to withdraw US troops following the conclusion of the Doha Agreement. Rather than Afghanistan being prepared for this announcement, the election result threw Afghanistan into political turmoil. The election further undermined the legitimacy of Afghan political institutions. Abdullah rejected the outcome and sought to establish a parallel government.