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2 - The present-day climate of the Middle East

from Part I - Past, present and future climate

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 April 2011

By
Emily Black ,
Brian Hoskins ,
Julia Slingo  and
David Brayshaw
Edited by
Steven Mithen  and
Emily Black
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Brian Hoskins
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Julia Slingo
Affiliation:
University of Reading
David Brayshaw
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Steven Mithen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
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Summary

ABSTRACT

The arid climate of the Middle East means that variations in rainfall on all timescales from days to years have an enormous impact on the people who live in the region. Understanding this variability is crucial if we are to interpret model simulations of the region's climate and make meaningful predictions of how the climate may change in the future and how it has changed in the past (Chapters 3 and 4). This study uses rain gauge measurements in conjunction with other meteorological data to address the following questions. How does rainfall vary from day to day and from year to year? How does rainfall vary spatially within Jordan and Israel? How does the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean region affect the daily probability of rain? What effect do large-scale modes of variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have on rainfall variability in the region?

INTRODUCTION

Variability in precipitation has posed a considerable challenge to the population of the Middle East throughout the Holocene, and continues to be a key issue today. Understanding this variability is crucial for the design and interpretation of climate model experiments that characterise how precipitation has changed in the past and predict how it will change in the future.

Type
Chapter
Information
Water, Life and Civilisation
Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley
 , pp. 13 - 24
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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