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18 - Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques

from Part IV - Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 April 2011

By
Paul Whitehead ,
Sam Smith  and
Andrew Wade
Edited by
Steven Mithen  and
Emily Black
Paul Whitehead
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Sam Smith
Affiliation:
Oxford Brookes University
Andrew Wade
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Steven Mithen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
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Summary

ABSTRACT

Water in arid zones is at a premium, and this applied to past populations living on scarce water resources as it does today. An annual water balance model for Wadi Rajil, in northern Jordan, is used to simulate the ancient water supply system for the Early Bronze Age site of Jawa. The model includes water delivery from the catchment, local pond storage, and water demand for people, animals and irrigation. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with a range of factors including rainfall, evaporation, water losses and use. The stochastic simulation provides estimates of population levels sustainable by the water supply system. Past rainfall estimates from a global circulation model (GCM), with uncertainty bounds, are used to reconstruct the climate at Jawa in the Early Bronze Age (EBA). Model results indicate that the population levels in the predicted wetter conditions in the EBA could have risen to ~6,000 and may have been higher in wet years. Pond storage sustained the population during drought years. The GCM results suggest that prolonged droughts occurred in the later Bronze Age during which the water management system was unable to provide adequate supply for a population of 6,000. The utility of Monte Carlo based hydrological modelling as a tool within archaeological science is discussed.

Type
Chapter
Information
Water, Life and Civilisation
Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley
 , pp. 289 - 301
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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