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11 - Modelling Dead Sea levels and rainfall: past, present and future

from Part III - Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 April 2011

By
Paul Whitehead ,
Dan Butterfield ,
Emily Black  and
David Plinston
Edited by
Steven Mithen  and
Emily Black
Paul Whitehead
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Dan Butterfield
Affiliation:
Water Resource Associates
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
David Plinston
Affiliation:
Water Resource Associates
Steven Mithen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
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Summary

ABSTRACT

The Dead Sea has played a crucial role in the past development of communities in the Jordan Valley, as evidenced by the wide range of archaeological sites close to the sea or potential old sea shorelines. There is also considerable debate concerning how levels have changed over the recent past and also how water resources in the Jordan Valley will be managed in the future. Over the past 50 years there has been a significant reduction in the level of the Dead Sea driven by abstractions from the Jordan River, the main source of fresh water to the sea. Falling levels have created problems for the tourism industry, and there are plans to restore levels using a water transfer from the Red Sea or the Mediterranean to the Dead Sea. A new model of the Dead Sea levels is described, based on historical rainfall and level data from 1860 to 1960. The model is used to simulate the impacts of abstractions on Dead Sea levels that have resulted in a 45-m reduction in levels since the 1960s. The model is also used to evaluate the impacts of future climate change: it is shown that the projected changes in rainfall have a far smaller impact on Dead Sea levels than do the abstractions. The model also shows that the only way to avoid this problem is to transfer water into the Dead Sea from either the Red Sea or the Mediterranean. […]

Type
Chapter
Information
Water, Life and Civilisation
Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley
 , pp. 147 - 156
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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References

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