Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-g4j75 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-08T08:54:54.537Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

13 - Future projections of water availability in a semi-arid region of the eastern Mediterranean: a case study of Wadi Hasa, Jordan

from Part III - Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 April 2011

By
Andrew Wade ,
Ron Manley ,
Emily Black ,
Joshua Guest ,
Sameeh Al Nuimat  and
Khalil Jamjoum
Edited by
Steven Mithen  and
Emily Black
Andrew Wade
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Ron Manley
Affiliation:
Water Resource Associates Limited
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Joshua Guest
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Sameeh Al Nuimat
Affiliation:
CARE International – Jordan
Khalil Jamjoum
Affiliation:
National Centre for Agricultural Research and Extension
Steven Mithen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Get access

Summary

ABSTRACT

This chapter is concerned with a model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on water security in the rural west of Jordan. The study area is the Wadi Hasa, a large (2,520 km2) catchment which drains from the Jordanian plateau to the Dead Sea at Ghor Safi. The Wadi Hasa is regionally important in terms of both water resources and archaeology. A substantial database was collated to describe the hydrological functioning of the catchment and a new monthly time-step hydrological model, HYSIMM, was developed and applied within a modelling framework, which also includes the HadRM3 regional climate model and a weather generator, to provide future projections of mean monthly flows. Under the A2 storyline, the climate in the region of Wadi Hasa in 2071–2100 was projected to become drier, with a mean annual precipitation 25% less than the present day, and warmer; winter and summer temperatures were projected to increase by approximately 4 and 6 degrees centigrade, respectively. Spatial differences in the projected precipitation depths and temperatures are apparent across the region. The modelled outcomes suggest that the mean monthly flows will decrease in winter because of the reduced precipitation, and the modelled flows were more sensitive to changes in precipitation than potential evapotranspiration. Overall, the monthly flood flows are predicted to decrease by 22% and the base flow by 7% by the end of the century under the A2 storyline. […]

Type
Chapter
Information
Water, Life and Civilisation
Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley
 , pp. 175 - 188
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baker, M. and Hazra Engineering Company (1955) Yarmouk – Jordan Valley Project. Master Plan Report. Appendix V-A Hydrology and Groundwater: Hazra Engineering Company.Google Scholar
Barakat, S. A., Husein Malkawi, A. I. and Omar, M. (2005) Parametric study using FEM for the stability of the RCC Tannur dam. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering 23: 61–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Batayneh, A. T. and Qassas, H. A. (2006) Changes in quality of groundwater with seasonal fluctuations: an example from Ghor Safi area, southern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan. Journal of Environmental Sciences – China 18: 263–269.Google Scholar
Bender, F. (1968) Geological Map of Jordan 1:250,000 (Sheets: Aqaba-Ma'an and Amman). Hanover: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe.
,Binnie and Partners (Overseas) Limited (1979) Mujib and Southern Ghors Irrigation Project – Feasibility Report. Amman: Ministry of Planning, Jordan Valley Authority.Google Scholar
,Central Water Authority (1963) Review of stream flow data – prior to October 1963. Technical Paper No. 33. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Central Water Authority, Hydrology Division, Amman.
Corey, A. T. and Brooks, R. H. (1975) Drainage characteristics of soils. Soil Science Society of America Journal 39(2): 251–255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crawford, N. H. and Linsley, R. K. (1966) Digital Simulation in Hydrology: Stanford Watershed Model IV. Tech. Rep. No. 39. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Delattre, A. (2000) Greek and Latin inscriptions from Syria, vol. 21: Inscriptions from Jordan, part 4, Petra and southern Nabataea from the al-Hasa wadi to the Gulf of Aqaba. Latomus 59: 950–951.Google Scholar
,Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1970) The Hydrogeology of the Southern Desert of Jordan. Invesitgation of the Sandstone Aquifers of East Jordan. Based on the work of Lloyd, J. W.. United Nations Development Programme, Food and Agriculture Organization LA: SF/JOR 9, Technical Report 1. Rome: FAO.Google Scholar
Freiwan, M. and Kadioglu, M. (2008) Spatial and temporal analysis of climatological data in Jordan. International Journal of Climatology 28: 521–535.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamdi, M. R., Bdour, A. N. and Tarawneh, Z. S. (2008) Developing reference crop evapotranspiration time series simulation model using Class a Pan: a case study for the Jordan Valley/Jordan. Jordan Journal of Earth and Environmental Studies 1: 33–44. Hill, J. B. (2004) Land use and an archaeological perspective on socio-natural studies in the Wadi al-Hasa, west-central Jordan. American Antiquity69: 389–412.Google Scholar
Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G.et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience 2: 831–836.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manley, R. (1975) A hydrologic model with physically realistic parameters. UNESCO Symposium, Bratislava.Google Scholar
Manley, R., Dimitrievski, L. and Andovska, S. (2008) Hydrology simulation of the Vardar River. Presented at the BALWOIS symposium.
Margane, A., Borgstedt, A., Subah, A.et al. (2008) Delination of surface water protection zones for the Mujib Dam. Commissioned by Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung, BMZ). Project: Groundwater Resources Management BMZ-No.: 2005.2110.4, BGR-Archive No.: 012600.
Marks, A. E. (1999) The archaeology of the Wadi Al-Hasa, west central Jordan, vol. 1: Surveys, settlement patterns and paleoenvironments. Journal of Anthropological Research 55: 622–623.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masri, M. (1962) Hydrogeological study of Ghor Es Safi. Amman: Arab Potash Company.
Moumani, K., Alexander, J. and Bateman, M. D. (2003) Sedimentology of the Late Quaternary Wadi Hasa Marl Formation of Central Jordan: a record of climate variability. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 191: 221–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, C., Fealy, R., Charlton, R. and Sweeney, J. (2006) The reliability of an ‘off-the-shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model for use in climate impact assessment: uncertainty quantification using Latin hypercube sampling. Area 38: 65–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G.et al., eds. (2001) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Geneva: GRID-Arendal.Google Scholar
Parker, D. H. (1970) Investigation of the sandstone aquifers of East Jordan. In Jordan: The Hydrogeology of the Mesozoic-Cainozoic Aquifers of the Western Highlands and plateau of East Jordan. LA: SF/JOR9. Technical Report number 2. Rome: United Nations Development Programme, Food and Agriculture Organization.Google Scholar
Pilling, C. G. and Jones, J. A. A. (2002) The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, mid-Wales. Hydrological Processes 16: 1201–1213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Porter, J. and McMahon, T. (1971) A model for the simulation of streamflow data from climatic records. Journal of Hydrology 13: 297–324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ragab, R. and Prudhomme, C. (2002) Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: prospective and challenges for the 21st century. Biosystems Engineering 81: 3–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rumman, M. A., Hiyassat, M., Alsmadi, B., Jamrah, A. and Alqam, M. (2009) A surface water management model for the Integrated Southern Ghor Project, Jordan. Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management 9(3): 298–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuels, R., Rimmer, A. and Alpert, P. (2009) Effect of extreme rainfall events on the water resources of the Jordan River. Journal of Hydrology 375: 513–523.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
,The Royal Scientific Society (2007) An environmental and socioeconomic cost benefit analysis and pre-design evaluation of the proposed Red Sea/Dead Sea conduit. http://www.foeme.org/index_images/dinamicas/publications/publ73_1.pdf.
Tipping, R. (2007) Long-term landscape evolution of the Wadis Dana Faynan and Ghuwayr. In The Early Prehistory of Wadi Faynan, Southern Jordan: Archaeological Survey of Wadis Faynan, Ghuwayr and al-Bustan and Evaluation of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A Site of WF16, Wadi Faynan Series 1, Levant Supplementary Series 4, ed. Finlayson, B. L. and Mithen, S.. Oxford: Council for British Archaeology in the Levant/Oxbow Books, pp. 14–46.Google Scholar
Tleel, J. W. (1963) Inventory and Groundwater Evaluation Jordan Valley Amman, Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan: Central Water Authority.Google Scholar
,United Nations (2009) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. New York: UN Secretariat Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (advanced Excel tables). Last update in UNdata: 18 Jun 2009. http://data.un.org (Retrieved February 2010).
,US Geological Surveyet al. (2006) Application of Methods for Analysis of Rainfall Intensity in Areas of Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian Interest. Reports of the Executive Action Team, Middle East Water Data Banks Project. http://www.exact-me.org/overview/p0405.htm (Retrieved August 2010).
Vita-Finzi, C. (1966) The Hasa Formation: an alluvial deposition in Jordan. Man 1: 386–390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winer, E. R., Rech, J. A. and Coinman, N. R. (2006) Late Quaternary wetland deposits in Wadi Hasa, Jordan, and their implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. 2006 Philadelphia Annual Meeting (22–25 October 2006), Paper No. 126-4. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2006AM/finalprogram/abstract_112203.htm (Retrieved August 2009).

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×