Abstract

The soon- to- be completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is abruptly modifying the hydropolitical map of the Nile Basin. Egypt, the historical hydro- hegemon that has preserved a strong position in the basin is challenged by Ethiopia, which seems to have decided to become a major African hydropower producer. Theoretical analysis indicates the risk for Egypt if it retaliates against Ethiopian intentions. However, it is obvious that retaliation does not lead to a sustainable future. Long- term sustainability includes collaboration between all riparians in the Nile Basin. Eventually, this will lead to greater prosperity for all involved countries and a more efficient use of the water but also a decrease in the flow of the Nile. Increasing the efficiency of water use means a larger volume of water for food production, better health of the population and sustainable economic development.

Introduction

In October 2014, the Ethiopian government announced that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was 40 percent complete. The dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant and one of the largest reservoirs in Africa. The GERD will store a maximum of 74 km3 of water corresponding to a bit less than the average annual inflow of the Nile to the Aswan high dam (a total storage of about 84 km3). The dam surface area will be 1,680 km2 at full supply level. The project has foreseen a power plant capacity of 6,000 MW and 15,692 GWh annual energy amount. The GERD is vital for energy production and a key factor for food production, economic development and poverty reduction in Ethiopia and the Nile Basin. However, the GERD is also a political statement that has already largely rewritten the hydropolitical map of the Nile Basin. The GERD has become a symbol of Ethiopian nationalism, or “renaissance” (hidase in Amharic). Historically, the Nile Basin has witnessed a rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia, on the one hand, but also uniting and cultural elements such as the relationships between the Coptic Church and the Orthodox Ethiopian Church on the other (e.g., Rubenson 2009). The Nile has also been the connecting link between Egypt and Ethiopia for thousands of years. Starting in the 3rd century, the Nile connected early Ethiopian Christianity with the Alexandrian Coptic Church, a link that continued uninterrupted for 1600 years (Ayele 1988, Erlich 2002).