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19 - Extreme Value Theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 February 2022

Timothy DelSole
Affiliation:
George Mason University, Virginia
Michael Tippett
Affiliation:
Columbia University, New York
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Summary

This chapter gives an introduction to extreme value theory. Unlike most statistical analyses, which are concerned with the typical properties of a random variable, extreme value theory is concerned with rare events that occur in the tail of the distribution. The cornerstone of extreme value theory is the Extremal Types Theorem. This theorem states that the maximum of N independent and identically distributed random variables can converge, after suitable normalization, only to a single distribution in the limit of large N. This limiting distribution is called the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. This theorem is analogous to the central limit theorem, except that the focus is on the maximum rather than the sum of random variables. The GEV provides the basis for estimating the probability of extremes that are more extreme than those that occurred in a sample. The GEV is characterized by three parameters, called the location, scale, and shape. A procedure called the maximum likelihood method can be used to estimate these parameters, quantify their uncertainty, and account for dependencies on time or external environmental conditions.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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  • Extreme Value Theory
  • Timothy DelSole, George Mason University, Virginia, Michael Tippett, Columbia University, New York
  • Book: Statistical Methods for Climate Scientists
  • Online publication: 03 February 2022
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108659055.020
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  • Extreme Value Theory
  • Timothy DelSole, George Mason University, Virginia, Michael Tippett, Columbia University, New York
  • Book: Statistical Methods for Climate Scientists
  • Online publication: 03 February 2022
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108659055.020
Available formats
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To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Extreme Value Theory
  • Timothy DelSole, George Mason University, Virginia, Michael Tippett, Columbia University, New York
  • Book: Statistical Methods for Climate Scientists
  • Online publication: 03 February 2022
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108659055.020
Available formats
×