Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7fkt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-29T12:23:46.580Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

17 - A Regional Modelling Debate

from Part III - Downscaling in Practice and Outlook

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 December 2017

Douglas Maraun
Affiliation:
Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria
Martin Widmann
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham
Get access

Summary

Along with the increasing amount of research in climate downscaling, a critical debate about the limitations and suitability of downscaling has arisen. The debate revolves around essentially two questions: first, are climate models skillful to provide userrelevant information about climate change? Some researchers argue that GCMs cannot provide skillful input to downscaling, and downscaling itself cannot add value to GCM simulations. Second, is downscaling necessary, or could it be avoided by bottomup approaches to decision making? We will review these two discussions and critically comment on the issues raised.

Are Climate Models Fit for Purpose?

Kundzewicz and Stakhiv (2010) discuss whether climate models are “ready for prime time” in climate impact research. They argue that GCMs have originally been developed to advise mitigation policies but are more and more applied also to inform adaptation decisions. Whereas for the former purpose, a broad representation of global climate change is sufficient, the latter requires accurate projections of regional changes, in particular of highly uncertain processes such as the hydrological cycle. The authors argue that climate models are not (yet) skillful for direct application in adaptation planning. This view has been shared by other authors (e.g. Pielke and Wilby 2012); it is based on a series of claims (Kundzewicz and Stakhiv 2010, Pielke and Wilby 2012): first, GCMs do not skillfully include all first order forcings and feedbacks; second, GCMs do not skillfully simulate relevant regional processes such as El Niño; third, GCMs do not reproduce observed trends; and fourth, downscaling cannot improve GCM simulations. The first three claims are related to GCM skill, the fourth to downscaling skill and added value. In the following we will discuss these issues.

Skill of GCMs

Pielke et al. (2009) argue that current GCM projections do not consider all first-order forcings that determine future climate, such as the effect of aerosols or changes in land use and land cover. Over recent years, these aspects have more and more been in the focus of climate research and featured prominently in the most recent IPCC assessment report (Boucher et al. 2013, Myhre et al. 2013).

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • A Regional Modelling Debate
  • Douglas Maraun, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria, Martin Widmann, University of Birmingham
  • Book: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research
  • Online publication: 27 December 2017
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783.018
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • A Regional Modelling Debate
  • Douglas Maraun, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria, Martin Widmann, University of Birmingham
  • Book: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research
  • Online publication: 27 December 2017
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783.018
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • A Regional Modelling Debate
  • Douglas Maraun, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria, Martin Widmann, University of Birmingham
  • Book: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research
  • Online publication: 27 December 2017
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783.018
Available formats
×