Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T00:35:12.252Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

15 - Evaluation

from Part III - Downscaling in Practice and Outlook

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 December 2017

Douglas Maraun
Affiliation:
Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria
Martin Widmann
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham
Get access

Summary

As discussed in Chapter 5, two key information requirements for users of climate information are credibility and salience. A proper evaluation is key to establish credibility of regional (in fact: any) climate projections: by analysing the realism of the chosen, potentially statistically post-processe, climate model simulations and by assessing the credibility of regional future projections. A proper evaluation has to be designed in a way to provide salient information: statistical aspects need to be evaluated that are relevant to users.

Barsugli et al. (2013) and Hewitson et al. (2014) highlight the practitioner's dilemma: users of downscaled information are faced with a plethora of different regional climate projections, based on different GCMs, downscaling methods and approaches, realisations and forcings, with widely varying and often contradictory results. Key to a sensible evaluation is thus a common framework to be able to trace differences between the individual simulations.

For global climate models, the CMIP framework (Meehl et al. 2007a, Taylor et al. 2012) provides the basis for broad intercomparison studies. Regional climate models have been intercompared within the PIRCS (Takle et al. 1999), PRUDENCE (Christensen and Christensen 2007), ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009), NARCCAP (Mearns et al. 2009) and most recently the CORDEX initiatives (Giorgi et al. 2009). The first broad intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods was carried out within the European STARDEX project (Goodess et al. 2010). Similar projects have been carried out for Australia (Frost et al. 2011), China (Hu et al. 2013) and the US (Gutmann et al. 2014). Recently, the VALUE network carried out the most comprehensive intercomparison of statistical downscaling and bias correction methods for European climate (Maraun et al. 2015). Ongoing activities are the BCIP intercomparison of bias correction methods, and the CORDEX-ESD evaluation for South Africa and the La Plata basin in South America. Guidelines for the evaluation of regional climate projections have been published by Hewitson et al. (2014) and Maraun et al. (2015).

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • Evaluation
  • Douglas Maraun, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria, Martin Widmann, University of Birmingham
  • Book: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research
  • Online publication: 27 December 2017
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783.016
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Evaluation
  • Douglas Maraun, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria, Martin Widmann, University of Birmingham
  • Book: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research
  • Online publication: 27 December 2017
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783.016
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Evaluation
  • Douglas Maraun, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Austria, Martin Widmann, University of Birmingham
  • Book: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research
  • Online publication: 27 December 2017
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783.016
Available formats
×