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Yudhoyono's Legacy between Stability and Stagnation

from INDONESIA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2015

Marcus Mietzner
Affiliation:
National University
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Summary

As Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's two-term presidency draws closer to its 2014 finish line, observers and ordinary Indonesians alike have begun to reflect on the political and social legacy he will leave behind. On the one hand, there is little doubt that historians will look at the Yudhoyono period as a phase of extraordinary stability, both in political and economic terms. Yudhoyono has been able to prevent significant challenges to his regime, kept local violence under control, and maintained satisfactory levels of economic growth. Importantly, Yudhoyono's landslide re-election in 2009 is testimony to these successes and the popular support he enjoyed for much of his tenure. But as is often the case in politics, the other side of the stability coin is stagnation, and Yudhoyono's presidency is no exception to this rule. The President's critics have slammed him for uninspiring leadership, deliberate ambiguity vis-à-vis democratic reform and anti-corruption campaigns, and the government's prioritization of gross domestic product growth over economic equality. They believe that Yudhoyono has squandered a huge opportunity to use the stability of the last few years to push for further reforms and institutionalize the gains made in the earlier post-Soeharto period. In short, they view him as an Indonesian reincarnation of Fidel Ramos, the Philippine president between 1992 and 1998. Like Ramos, so the argument goes, Yudhoyono has put no mechanisms in place that could secure the polity for the time after his presidency. When Ramos left office, his stable six-year term made way to Estrada's chaotic impeachment and Arroyo's return to semi-authoritarianism. What Indonesia will look like after Yudhoyono remains uncertain, his critics assert, and they believe that this is partly due to the President's inactivity and complacency.

Developments in 2011 gave ample ammunition to both camps in the debate outlined above. Certainly, the levels of political stability remained high, with no major incidents threatening to dislodge the post-Soeharto polity. At the same time, economic growth reached numbers last achieved under the New Order regime, approaching seven per cent per annum. What's more, the financial rating agency Fitch granted Indonesia investment grade status for the first time since 1997.

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Publisher: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Print publication year: 2012

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