The year 1996 saw better prospects for peace, stability, and democracy in Cambodia. The cautious optimism of this article rests on the notion that peace and stability are relative terms and that democratization is a long and painful process from authoritarianism to liberal democracy. This article is based on the theoretical notion that the way to peace, stability, and democracy rests largely on the strengthening of a weak state which has been incapable of mobilizing resources to achieve national goals and the weakening of a strong society which has been able to successfully resist the state's national policy initiatives.

A close look at Cambodia in 1996 justifies this cautious optimism: the two major political parties within the state were not capable of tilting the balance of power at the expense of each other; opposition parties gained a degree of political legitimacy; and the Khmer Rouge guerrilla force declined rapidly. On the economic front, the country did not fall into total despair, despite the fact that the state still failed to mobilize resources to strengthen its own budget and to meet social needs and was unable to undertake administrative reform. On foreign affairs, Cambodia continued to expand its interactions with other countries and still enjoyed the international community's material and diplomatic support. Major aid donors adopted a more healthy policy attitude that contributed to the military decline of the Khmer Rouge rebels. Overall, 1996 gave Cambodia a better chance to eliminate violent social challenges to state authority (thus strengthening the weak state and weakening the strong society), to devote more attention to economic development (giving more legitimacy to the state), and to prepare for the next elections scheduled for 1998 (which would further legitimize state authority).

Political and Security Structural Development: From Unipolarity to Bipolarity?

The political and security developments during 1996 could give rise to a bipolar political and security structure: the rising tension between the two coalition partners (the Cambodian People's Party or CPP and FUNCINPEC or Front Uni National pour un Cambodge Independant, Neutre, Pacifique et Cooperatif);