Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T10:35:48.833Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

6 - The intelligence of policy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 May 2010

Gregory F. Treverton
Affiliation:
RAND Corporation, California
Get access

Summary

In the autumn of 1990, my predecessors at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicted Yugoslavia's tragedy with a prescience that is awe inspiring. The national intelligence estimate, or NIE, concluded that Yugoslavia's breakup was inevitable. The breakup would be violent, and the conflict might expand to spill into adjacent regions. The analysis could not quite foresee the horror and special evil of what came to be called ethnic cleansing. Still, providing some shape to an uncertain future is impressive enough for intelligence, and this analysis actually predicted that future. This estimate was no weasel-worded least common denominator. The footnotes that registered dissenting opinions all sought to paint the outcome as gloomier than the basic text, not less so.

Yet so far as I can tell, the document had no effect. None. The reasons are provocative for understanding the connection between intelligence and policy. The senior levels of the Bush administration's foreign policy machine were preoccupied with other issues, so being told of one more disaster lurking in the wings was unwelcome information. It was news they did not want to hear. Hoping that Yugoslavia might somehow stay together was convenient. That convenience was reinforced, for many at the top of government, by experience. Lawrence Eagle-burger, the deputy secretary of state, had been a Yugoslav “hand” as a foreign service officer; Gen. Brent Scowcroft, the president's national security advisor, had served there as a military attaché.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • The intelligence of policy
  • Gregory F. Treverton, RAND Corporation, California
  • Book: Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information
  • Online publication: 23 May 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754470.009
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • The intelligence of policy
  • Gregory F. Treverton, RAND Corporation, California
  • Book: Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information
  • Online publication: 23 May 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754470.009
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • The intelligence of policy
  • Gregory F. Treverton, RAND Corporation, California
  • Book: Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information
  • Online publication: 23 May 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511754470.009
Available formats
×