Summary

Fifty-two percent of all primary-age children who are not attending school are in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, 61 percent of the children expected to receive no primary schooling during their lifetimes reside in that region. If we are to meet the Millennium Development Goal of Universal Primary Education for all, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa represent the greatest challenge. It is inconceivable that UNESCO's estimate of the need for an extra $26 billion annually to achieve universal global primary education will bemet via increased foreign aid. This allows international agencies to blame failures to achieve Universal Primary Education (UPE) on lack of funds, but we should note that the estimated funding gap has steadily increased while the number of children out of school has decreased.

There are, in fact, other reasons for the failure. First, it is clear that not all governments are using their resources for the intended purpose; corrupt countries show poor returns to human capital. Some of the worst countries as measured by the Fund for Peace's Fragile States index are in sub- Saharan Africa, and it is unsurprising that their schooling record is also poor. Out-of-school children in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, or Zimbabwe are unlikely to attend school even if aid is increased.

A second major problem in the region is the large proportion of children who have lost one or both parents. Sub-Saharan Africa has 36 percent of the children worldwide who have lost at least one parent, and 47 percent of those who have lost both. The effects of parental loss on schooling are insignificant in some countries where there are strong extended family linkages to provide support. However, in most countries the problem is getting worse rather than better, with concerns that extended families can no longer provide enough financial and emotional support.

There is widespread acceptance that policies aimed at enhancing human capital investments should focus on the very young, but it is less clear how best to target resources. Experiments such as the famous Perry preschool program for disadvantaged children showed higher cognitive scores on entering school for children who had followed a two-year preschool program. Although these differences soon disappeared, these children were found to have advantages in later life, being more likely to finish high school, go to college, have steady employment, and avoid criminal activity.