Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
- Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
- Chapter 3 Predictability – a problem partly solved
- Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
- Chapter 5 Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
- Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
- Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
- Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state estimation
- Chapter 9 Predictability past, predictability present
- Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled processes
- Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
- Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
- Chapter 13 Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Chapter 14 On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
- Chapter 15 Model error in weather and climate forecasting
- Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
- Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
- Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
- Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction
- Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
- Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted observations
- Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
- Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
- Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
- Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value
- Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
- Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Chapter 27 - DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 December 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
- Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
- Chapter 3 Predictability – a problem partly solved
- Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
- Chapter 5 Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
- Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
- Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
- Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state estimation
- Chapter 9 Predictability past, predictability present
- Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled processes
- Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
- Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
- Chapter 13 Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Chapter 14 On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
- Chapter 15 Model error in weather and climate forecasting
- Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
- Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
- Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
- Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction
- Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
- Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted observations
- Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
- Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
- Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
- Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value
- Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
- Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Summary
A multimodel ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global coupled atmosphere–ocean models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, applications of seasonal ensemble forecasts have been incorporated into the DEMETER system. As an example of this innovative end-to-end system strategy, the use of DEMETER data in malaria forecasting processes is discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information. This illustrates the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.
Introduction
Seasonal-timescale climate predictions are now made routinely at a number of operational meteorological centres around the world, using comprehensive coupled models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface (Stockdale et al., 1998; Mason et al., 1999; Alves et al., 2002; Kanamitsu et al., 2002). They are clearly of value to a wide cross-section of society, for personal, commercial and humanitarian reasons (Thomson et al., 2000; Hartmann et al., 2002b). However, the successful transition from research activity to full operational practice has led some potential users of seasonal forecasts to have unrealistic expectations of what is practicable (‘We are getting married in six months time – should we order a marquee for the wedding reception, or will it be dry that day?’).
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- Information
- Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. 674 - 692Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2006
References
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