Book contents
- Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion
- Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences
- Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Graphs
- Quadrants
- Tables
- Acknowledgments
- 1 The Three-Hatted Pollster
- Part I The Fundamentals of Public Opinion
- Part II The Pollster as Data Scientist
- Part III The Pollster as Fortune Teller
- 8 Cognitive Biases in Prediction
- 9 Triangulating Election Prediction
- 10 Decision Inputs
- Part IV The Pollster as Spin Doctor
- Index
8 - Cognitive Biases in Prediction
from Part III - The Pollster as Fortune Teller
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 November 2024
- Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion
- Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences
- Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Graphs
- Quadrants
- Tables
- Acknowledgments
- 1 The Three-Hatted Pollster
- Part I The Fundamentals of Public Opinion
- Part II The Pollster as Data Scientist
- Part III The Pollster as Fortune Teller
- 8 Cognitive Biases in Prediction
- 9 Triangulating Election Prediction
- 10 Decision Inputs
- Part IV The Pollster as Spin Doctor
- Index
Summary
Predictions often falter because of human error. Most misses have much more to do with our own human shortcomings than with the technical sophistication of the method at hand. In our experience, forecasting errors occur when we discard or misinterpret evidence right in front of us. The clues are there, but we are blinded by our own filters. This is why it is essential to tackle such biases and discuss corresponding solutions. In this chapter, we’ll look at studies on the forecasting prowess of experts. Then, we’ll focus on cognitive biases that skew predictions. Finally, we’ll present an applied approach to minimize such biases.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Polls, Pollsters, and Public OpinionA Guide for Decision-Makers, pp. 113 - 125Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2024