In this chapter we use the TERRA submodel to explore whether malnutrition and food insecurity can be eliminated while safeguarding the productive potential and broader environmental functions of agricultural resources for future generations. This is done within the context of the three cultural perspectives. The food problem is explained not so much as a problem of production but as one of availability and distribution. The submodel simulations are, however, largely confined to aggregate food demand and supply. Costs and environmental trade-offs are assessed in both utopian and dystopian worlds to determine under what conditions the planet will be able to feed its future population. We explore perspective-based scenarios for population and GWP, the surface area available for cropping, the use of irrigation, fertilisers and other inputs, wood production, reforestation, and the effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 and temperature.

Introduction

Currently, sufficient food is produced to feed the world population, yet at the same time more than 1,000 million people cannot afford or do not have the possibility to buy enoughfood to live healthy and productive lives. More than 500 million are chronically undernourished (FAO, 1993a). Malnutrition and food insecurity are not so much related to food production but rather to the unequal distribution of available food (IFPRI, 1995). This is caused by socio-economic factors such as poverty, the political situation, deficient infrastructure and (food) trade.