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5 - Selective Effect

Do Noncentrist Candidates Perform Better in Primaries?

from Part II - Party Transformation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 November 2024

Mike Cowburn
Affiliation:
European University Viadrina
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Summary

Having shown that primaries can reorient parties in Chapter 4, this chapter tests the first mechanism through which primaries are said to contribute to partisan polarization: the selective effect of voter preferences. It therefore tests whether primary voters prefer noncentrist candidates, all else being equal. Through a set of four analyses it tests whether primary voters prefer candidates further from the center when they are presented with a comparatively moderate and polarized alternative, whether moderate incumbents are more threatened, whether candidates who emerge from (ideological and factional) primaries are more “extreme” than other candidates, and whether there is any relationship between turnout and nominee position. Taken together, the findings in this chapter demonstrate the absence of a select effect from primary voters in nonincumbent primaries and only a weak and substantively small effect when an incumbent is present, suggesting that the polarizing effect identified in Chapter 4 is largely independent from the preferences expressed by primary voters.

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Chapter
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Party Transformation in Congressional Primaries
Faction and Ideology in the Twenty-First Century
, pp. 136 - 163
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

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  • Selective Effect
  • Mike Cowburn, European University Viadrina
  • Book: Party Transformation in Congressional Primaries
  • Online publication: 09 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009536516.007
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  • Selective Effect
  • Mike Cowburn, European University Viadrina
  • Book: Party Transformation in Congressional Primaries
  • Online publication: 09 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009536516.007
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Selective Effect
  • Mike Cowburn, European University Viadrina
  • Book: Party Transformation in Congressional Primaries
  • Online publication: 09 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009536516.007
Available formats
×