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5 - Reliability analysis of reservoir operation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2010

J. J. Bogardi
Affiliation:
Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands
A. Verhoef
Affiliation:
Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Affiliation:
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
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Summary

ABSTRACT Optimization (mainly dynamic programming) based operation of reservoir systems has proven its superiority over traditional techniques based on the concept of rule curve, at least in terms of the selected objective function. Stochasticity of the system can be considered in the optimization by using stochastic dynamic programming to derive longterm, expectation oriented optimal policies. Since the optimality of the operation can only be realized during an infinite operational period, the performance of a stochastic system should not be characterized for practically available time series alone by the expected (annual) value of the objective function. In addition to the traditional output figures a number of performance indices (PI) can be derived to describe the operational behaviour (especially reliability) of the system upon the application of a certain operational policy. These performance indices can be estimated by simulation of the system operation according to the operational policy to be tested.

The inclusion of these PIs in the overall judgment creates a multicriterion framework for decision making. Furthermore, these performance indices are believed to be more sensitive in reflecting the impact of certain constraints than the value of the objective function alone.

The validity of this hypothesis will be tested on a multiunit multipurpose reservoir system, the Victoria, Randenigala, Rantembe reservoir cascade situated on the river Mahaweli in Sri Lanka.

Based on the results of simulation, the PIs will be analyzed for their viability in practical applications.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1995

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  • Reliability analysis of reservoir operation
    • By J. J. Bogardi, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands, A. Verhoef, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • Edited by Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
  • Book: New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology and Water Resources
  • Online publication: 07 May 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511564482.037
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  • Reliability analysis of reservoir operation
    • By J. J. Bogardi, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands, A. Verhoef, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • Edited by Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
  • Book: New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology and Water Resources
  • Online publication: 07 May 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511564482.037
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Reliability analysis of reservoir operation
    • By J. J. Bogardi, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands, A. Verhoef, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • Edited by Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
  • Book: New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology and Water Resources
  • Online publication: 07 May 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511564482.037
Available formats
×