Abstract

Juxtaposing the political science of authoritarianism with the dynamics of the Arab Spring, this chapter suggests often unseen lacunae in the modern study of politics and proposes new perspectives on the nature of political change. A close examination of how political science theory defines authoritarian political regimes indicates that the uprisings of the Arab world may permit or even demand refinement in our understanding of autocracy. The skill of incumbent rulers, the character and quality of the previous authoritarian regime and the resilience of the contemporary state itself all inform patterns of political change in the Arab world – and they do so in predictable ways. Both the theory and the practice of the transition from authoritarianism are complex, contentious and still unresolved, and as such they reflect important and ambitious commitments to enhancing both our conception and our conduct of politics.

For decades – certainly, since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and perhaps since the wave of democratization in Latin America and southern Europe in the 1970s – political scientists, area specialists, and policymakers have been puzzled by what became known as the persistence of authoritarianism in the Arab world. The uprisings of 2011 that toppled a number of Arab dictators surprised nearly everyone, within the region and beyond, and provoked renewed interest among political scientists and political activists alike in the historical experience of the transition to democracy.