the European countryside in the fifteenth century was more sparsely populated than at any time since about 1150. This fact has dominated historical perceptions of the period. The ‘demographic crisis’ is seen as an all-pervading influence, having its origins around 1300 in fundamental problems of over-population, overextension of cultivation and ecological imbalances. The crisis began with the famines and plagues of the fourteenth century, and its effects persisted in some countries after 1500. This chapter is based on the assumption that this view of a ‘demographic crisis’ helps our understanding of the fifteenth century, but that excessive dependence on it leads to a distorted and incomplete picture, and after examining the crisis we will turn to alternative interpretations, additions and modifications.

the demographic crisis

The population of most European countries suffered a heavy death toll in the fourteenth century, and after 1400 epidemics of plague and other diseases continued to cause bouts of high mortality. These were less virulent and more localised than the initial Black Death of 1348–9, but evidence from Tuscany, England and the Low Countries suggests that most places experienced between eight and twelve serious epidemics in the fifteenth century. Relatively small numbers of children were recorded for each married couple; for example, in the Lyons region from a mean of 3.9 children mentioned in each will of the 1320s, the figure diminished to 1.9 in the 1420s. Such statistics need to be treated with caution, though the general message of a shortage of children is repeated too consistently to be explained in terms of under-reporting. Small families could reflect simply another aspect of mortality, the vulnerability of infants and children to disease, but are likely to derive also from such factors as changes in the age of marriage.