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5 - Problems with Priors

from Part II - Fine-Tuning for Life and the Multiverse

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 January 2021

Simon Friederich
Affiliation:
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, The Netherlands
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Summary

This chapter continues the discussion of the standard fine-tuning argument for the multiverse, switching to the language of Bayesianism. After highlighting the desideratum of motivating a non-negligible (ur-) prior for the multiverse, I assess a worry, due to Cory Juhl, about belief in the multiverse, as based on the standard fine-tuning argument for the multiverse: that, even if the inverse gambler's fallacy charge could be rebutted, such belief would inevitably rely on illegitimate double-counting of the fine-tuning evidence. I argue that this concern can be assuaged, at least in principle: it is coherently possible for there be empirical evidence in favor of some specific multiverse theory – and thereby, derivatively, for the generalized multiverse hypothesis – whose evidential impact is independent of the fine-tuning considerations. The probabilistic formalism is also used to clarify why it is so difficult to determine whether the standard fine-tuning argument for the multiverse is fallacious: the difficulty can be linked to an ambiguity in the background knowledge based on which the impact of the finding that the conditions are right for life in our universe is assessed.

Type
Chapter
Information
Multiverse Theories
A Philosophical Perspective
, pp. 72 - 84
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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  • Problems with Priors
  • Simon Friederich, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, The Netherlands
  • Book: Multiverse Theories
  • Online publication: 07 January 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108765947.006
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  • Problems with Priors
  • Simon Friederich, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, The Netherlands
  • Book: Multiverse Theories
  • Online publication: 07 January 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108765947.006
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Problems with Priors
  • Simon Friederich, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, The Netherlands
  • Book: Multiverse Theories
  • Online publication: 07 January 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108765947.006
Available formats
×