Book contents
- More People, Fewer States
- More People, Fewer States
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 More People and Yet Fewer States
- Part I World Population Growth
- Part II Empire Growth
- Part III Trends and Interactions
- 14 How Top States Have Become Larger
- 15 How the Number of States Has Decreased, and What Is Ahead
- 16 Population Density, and Connecting World and Top State Populations
- 17 Growth–Decline Patterns and Durations of Empires
- 18 Empire Shapes, Languages, and Reigns
- 19 Cities and Empires
- 20 How History Fades – and Expands
- 21 The Future of the Super-Cancer of the Biosphere
- Book Appendix: Chronological Table of Major State Sizes, −3500 to +2025
- References
- Index
17 - Growth–Decline Patterns and Durations of Empires
from Part III - Trends and Interactions
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 21 June 2024
- More People, Fewer States
- More People, Fewer States
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 More People and Yet Fewer States
- Part I World Population Growth
- Part II Empire Growth
- Part III Trends and Interactions
- 14 How Top States Have Become Larger
- 15 How the Number of States Has Decreased, and What Is Ahead
- 16 Population Density, and Connecting World and Top State Populations
- 17 Growth–Decline Patterns and Durations of Empires
- 18 Empire Shapes, Languages, and Reigns
- 19 Cities and Empires
- 20 How History Fades – and Expands
- 21 The Future of the Super-Cancer of the Biosphere
- Book Appendix: Chronological Table of Major State Sizes, −3500 to +2025
- References
- Index
Summary
The simplest model for an empire’s growth curve is simple logistic (drawn-out S), leading to a steady maximum area. During this steady state, the share of coordinators in the population increases at the expense of producers. Collapse follows sooner or later, even in the absence of other inbuilt defects. Actual growth–decline curves at times deviate widely from the simple model. While the size of top empires has increased, empire duration has not over five millennia. They have tended to last for 180 years at half their maximum size. When including lesser but still major states, duration drops to 100 years. Slow growth tends to lead to more durable states. The median ratio of duration and rise times is 2.5 (as compared to five for individual rats and humans), but variation is huge.
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- Information
- More People, Fewer StatesThe Past and Future of World Population and Empire Sizes, pp. 266 - 276Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2024