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Chapter 3 - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Assessing a Theory

from Part I - Setting the Stage

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 March 2025

Falk Huettig
Affiliation:
Max-Planck-Institut für Psycholinguistik, The Netherlands
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Summary

The philosophy of science suggests that, on a fundamental level, a scientific theory is only a good theory to the extent that it fulfils a set of basic criteria of adequacy. The study of the predictive mind thus should benefit from an examination and evaluation of the extent to which theories of prediction adhere to these ground rules. There are six reasonable criteria further elucidated in this chapter that are useful to assess the merit of a theory. These criteria are far from perfect benchmarks but, considered as a whole, provide a useful guideline to evaluate theories of prediction. Six criteria are applied to theories of prediction in the remainder of the book. These are: parsimony and simplicity, theoretical precision and mechanistic specificity, testability and predictive power, falsifiability, test of time, and utility. The credibility of a scientific theory is also intrinsically connected to the credibility of the experimental evidence supporting it. This book uses three criteria that provide good benchmarks: the reliability, generalizability, and the validity of the experimental evidence that has been collected.

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Chapter
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Looking Ahead
The New Science of the Predictive Mind
, pp. 18 - 28
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2025

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  • The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
  • Falk Huettig, Max-Planck-Institut für Psycholinguistik, The Netherlands
  • Book: Looking Ahead
  • Online publication: 20 March 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009245470.005
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To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
  • Falk Huettig, Max-Planck-Institut für Psycholinguistik, The Netherlands
  • Book: Looking Ahead
  • Online publication: 20 March 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009245470.005
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
  • Falk Huettig, Max-Planck-Institut für Psycholinguistik, The Netherlands
  • Book: Looking Ahead
  • Online publication: 20 March 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009245470.005
Available formats
×