Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T18:22:48.386Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

13 - Exchange Rates, Tariffs and Prices in 1930s Britain

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 December 2023

Patricia Clavin
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
Giancarlo Corsetti
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
Maurice Obstfeld
Affiliation:
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC
Adam Tooze
Affiliation:
Columbia University, New York
Get access

Summary

This chapter investigates the degree of pass-through from import prices and tariffs to wholesale prices in interwar Britain using a new high-frequency micro data set. The main results are: (i) Pass-through from import prices and tariffs to wholesale prices was economically and statistically significant. (ii) Despite devaluation, import prices exacerbated deflation in the early 1930s because of the global slump in export prices. (iii) Rising protection, however, was a mild stimulus to prices during the shift to inflation.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Albers, Thilo N. H. 2020. “Currency Devaluations and Beggar-my-neighbour Penalties: Evidence from the 1930s.” Economic History Review 73 (1): 233–57.Google Scholar
Andrews, B. P. A. 1987. “Exchange Rate Appreciation, Competitiveness and Export Performance: The UK Experience in the Inter-war Period.” PhD dissertation, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben, and James, Harold. 1991. “The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison.” In Financial Markets and Financial Crises, edited by Glenn Hubbard, R., 3368. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Board of Trade Journal. Various Dates. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Booth, Alan. 1987. “Britain in the 1930s: A Managed Economy?Economic History Review 40 (4): 499522.Google Scholar
Boneva, Lena, Cloyne, James, Weale, Martin, and Wieladek, Tomasz. 2016. “The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in the United Kingdom.” International Journal of Central Banking 12 (3): 161–95.Google Scholar
Breinlich, Holger, Leromain, Elsa, Novy, Dennis, and Sampson, Thomas. 2019. “Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Broadberry, S. N. 1986. The British Economy Between the Wars: A Macroeconomic Survey. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Broadberry, Stephen, Chadha, Jagjit S., Lennard, Jason, and Thomas, Ryland. Forthcoming. “Dating Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2000.” Economic History Review.Google Scholar
Capie, Forrest. 1981. “Shaping the British Tariff Structure in the 1930s.” Explorations in Economic History 18 (2): 155–73.Google Scholar
Capie, Forrest, and Webber, Alan. 2010. A Monetary History of the United Kingdom, 1870–1982: Data, Sources and Methods. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Capie, Forrest, and Collins, Michael. 1983. The Inter-war British Economy: A Statistical Abstract. Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Cloyne, James. 2013. “Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom.” American Economic Review 103 (4): 1507–28.Google Scholar
Cloyne, James, and Hürtgen, Patrick. 2016. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 8 (4): 75102.Google Scholar
Corsetti, Giancarlo, Dedola, Luca, and Leduc, Sylvain. 2008. “High Exchange-rate Volatility and Low Pass-through.” Journal of Monetary Economics 55 (6): 1133–28.Google Scholar
Crafts, Nicholas. 2013. “Returning to Growth: Policy Lessons from History.” Fiscal Studies 34 (2): 255–82.Google Scholar
Crafts, Nicholas, and Fearon, Peter. 2013. “Depression and Recovery in the 1930s: An Overview.” In The Great Depression of the 1930s: Lessons for Today, edited by Crafts, Nicholas and Fearon, Peter, 144. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Crafts, Nicholas, and Mills, Terence C.. 2013. “Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain.” Journal of Economic History 73 (4): 1077–104.Google Scholar
Crafts, Nicholas, and Mills, Terence C.. 2015. “Self-defeating Austerity? Evidence from 1930s’ Britain.” European Review of Economic History 19 (2): 109–27.Google Scholar
de Bromhead, Alan, Fernihough, Alan, Lampe, Markus, and Hjortshøj O’Rourke, Kevin. 2019a. “When Britain Turned Inward: The Impact of Interwar British Protection.” American Economic Review 109 (2): 325–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Bromhead, Alan, Fernihough, Alan, Lampe, Markus, and Hjortshøj O’Rourke, Kevin. 2019b. “The Anatomy of a Trade Collapse: The UK, 1929–1933.” European Review of Economic History 23 (2): 123–44.Google Scholar
Dimsdale, Nicholas. 1981. “British Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate, 1920–1938.” Oxford Economic Papers 33: 306–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, André. 1986. “General Import Restrictions and the Behaviour of Domestic Prices and Wages: The Case of the British General Tariff of 1932.” PhD dissertation, London School of Economics.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. 2004. “The British Economy Between the Wars.” In The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain: Volume II: Economic Maturity, 1860–1939, edited by Floud, Roderick and Johnson, Paul, 314–43. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Esteves, Rui, Kenny, Seán, and Lennard, Jason. 2021. “The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 16166.Google Scholar
Feenstra, Robert C. 1989. “Symmetric Pass-through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates under Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test.” Journal of International Economics 27 (1–2): 2545.Google Scholar
Feinstein, C. H. 1972. National Income, Expenditure and Output of the United Kingdom 1855–1965. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Forbes, Kristin, Hjortsoe, Ida, and Nenova, Tsvetelina. 2017. “Shocks versus Structure: Explaining Differences in Exchange Rate Pass-through across Countries and Time.” Bank of England External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 50.Google Scholar
Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, and Knetter, Michael M.. 1997. “Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?Journal of Economic Literature 35 (3): 1243–72.Google Scholar
Gopinath, Gita, Itskhoki, Oleg, and Rigobon, Roberto. 2010. “Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” American Economic Review 100 (1): 304–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansard (The Official Report). Various dates. UK Parliament.Google Scholar
Hellerstein, Rebecca. 2008. “Who Bears the Cost of a Change in the Exchange Rate? Pass-through Accounting for the Case of Beer.” Journal of International Economics 76 (1): 1432.Google Scholar
Howson, Susan. 1975. Domestic Monetary Management in Britain, 1919–38. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Irwin, Douglas A. 1998. “Change in US Tariffs: The Role of Import Prices and Commercial Policies.” American Economic Review 88 (4): 1015–26.Google Scholar
Jacks, David S. 2019. “From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run.” Cliometrica 13 (2): 201–20.Google Scholar
Jacks, David S., and Stuermer, Martin. 2020. “What Drives Commodity Price Booms and Busts?Energy Economics 85: 18.Google Scholar
Jalil, Andrew J. 2015. “A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825–1929: Construction and Implications.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7 (3): 295330.Google Scholar
Kenny, Seán, Lennard, Jason, and Turner, John. 2021. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938.” Explorations in Economic History 79.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1931. Essays in Persuasion. London: Macmillan and Co.Google Scholar
Lennard, Jason. 2018. “Did Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard.” Explorations in Economic History 68 (1): 1636.Google Scholar
Mills, Geofrey, and Rockoff, Hugh. 1987. “Compliance with Price Controls in the United States and the United Kingdom During World War II.” Journal of Economic History 47 (1): 197213.Google Scholar
Mitchell, B. R. 1988. British Historical Statistics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Moggridge, D. E. 1972. British Monetary Policy, 1924–1931: The Norman Conquest of $4.86. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nakamura, Emi, and Zerom, Dawit. 2010. “Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through.” Review of Economic Studies 77 (3): 1192–230.Google Scholar
National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 1943. Trade Regulations and Commercial Policy of the United Kingdom. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1930. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1930. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1931. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1931. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1932a. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1932. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1932b. Twenty-Third Report of the Commissioners of His Majesty’s Customs and Excise for the Year Ended 31st March 1932. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1933a. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1933. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1933b. Twenty-Fourth Report of the Commissioners of His Majesty’s Customs and Excise for the Year Ended 31st March 1933. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1934. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1934. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1935. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1935. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1936a. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1936. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1936b. Twenty-Seventh Report of the Commissioners of His Majesty’s Customs and Excise for the Year Ended 31st March 1936. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1937. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1937. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1938a. Accounts Relating to Trade and Navigation of the United Kingdom for Each Month during the Year 1938. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1938b. Twenty-Ninth Report of the Commissioners of His Majesty’s Customs and Excise for the Year Ended 31st March 1938. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Parliamentary Papers. 1939. Thirtieth Report of the Commissioners of His Majesty’s Customs and Excise for the Year Ended 31st March 1939. London: H. M. Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Ramey, Valerie A. 2011. “Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It’s all in the Timing.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (1): 150.Google Scholar
Ramey, Valerie A. 2016. “Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation.” In Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 2A, edited by Taylor, John B. and Uhlig, Harold, 71162. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Ramey, Valerie A., and Zubairy, Sarah. 2018. “Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data.” Journal of Political Economy 162 (2): 850901.Google Scholar
Redmond, John. 1980. “An Indicator of the Effective Exchange Rate of the Pound in the Nineteen-Thirties.” Economic History Review 33 (1): 8391.Google Scholar
Romer, Christina D., and Romer, David H.. 2004. “A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications.” American Economic Review 94 (4): 1055–84.Google Scholar
Romer, Christina D., and Romer, David H.. 2010. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks.” American Economic Review 100 (3): 763801.Google Scholar
Savoie-Chabot, Laurence, and Khan, Mikael. 2015. “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence.” Bank of Canada Discussion Paper No. 2015–9.Google Scholar
Sefton, James, and Weale, Martin. 1995. Reconciliation of National Income and Expenditure. Balanced Estimates of National Income for the United Kingdom, 1920–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Worswick, G. D. N. 1984. “The Sources of Recovery in UK in the 1930s.” National Institute Economic Review 110: 8593.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×