The focus of trouble in Europe was in any case shifting from west to east as a result of the rapid decline of the Ottoman Empire. The Young Turk revolution of 1908, the Bosnian annexation crisis of 1908–9, the removal of Sultan Abdulhamid II in 1909 and the Italian attack on Tripoli (Libya) in 1911 had aroused hopes of territorial expansion among the smaller Balkan states. In late September 1912 the First Balkan War broke out when Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece attacked Turkey. Kaiser Wilhelm II welcomed the Balkan countries’ advance, and in his characteristic style mocked the diplomats trying to restore peace as ‘eunuchs’. He declared scornfully that ‘civilians’ could not judge the situation, as ‘that is a matter for the military’. On 4 October 1912 he ominously exclaimed: ‘The Eastern Question must be resolved by blood and iron! But at a time that suits us! That is now.’

It was the Kaiser’s dream that the four Christian states in the Balkans would combine in a ‘4-Power League’, which would then be taken into the ‘European Concert’ as ‘a 7th Great Power’, and would in fact be ‘aligned with Austria and the Triple Alliance!’. Austria, he demanded, had to