INTRODUCTION

IN JAPAN, THERE are two types of pessimism on the future of the united Germany. One is as to the political integration of the united Germany in the wider Europe. For example, Kiichi Miyazawa, one of the faction leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party and one of the most intellectual politicians in contemporary Japan, recently expressed his doubts as to whether either the CSCE (Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe) or the EC (European Community) could control the stronger united Germany. He may have good reason to be anxious about the potential power of Germany. He, however, underestimates certain developments in Europe in the 1980s: the role of the CSCE after the collapse of the NATO-WTO system and the EC's function in the political integration of Europe. It may only reflect his own anxiety on Japan which has no equivalent organizations with the Asian countries.

The other type of pessimism concerns the economic integration of the eastern part of Germany into the united Germany, that is, the integration of the planned economy into the “social market economy”. It looks upon the deteriorating current indicators, such as the increasing number of bankruptcies and the rising rate of unemployment in Eastern Germany, as well as the increasing burden to the fiscal and monetary policy with fear. There is every reason to worry about failure in integrating the two different economic systems into one. It seems to me, however, that this type of pessimism also underestimates the developments in the 1980s and the socio-economic strength of the united Germany.

This paper aims at providing an optimistic prospect for the economic integration of the united Germany through a medium-range observation of a series of changes in the economic development of the two halves of Germany in the 1980s, especially those changes in industrial and firm-related conditions: industrial structure, the concentration of firms, industrial relations, ownership and management, and the attitude of business managers.

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE

The West German economy, as most other industrial economies, has exhibited a tendency towards a maturing service society since the 1970s, showing a declining percentage of primary and secondary industries and a rising percentage of tertiary industries.