Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 January 2010
The following is an outline of TechNav – a comprehensive process for the conceptual development of next-generation technologies and products based on the laws and lines of technological system evolution and business analysis (Fig. 6.1). The major points of this process are listed here.
(1) Phase 1: analysis of the past and current system's evolution. This stage is essentially about the analysis of an S-curve. The evolution of any technological system usually follows an S-shaped curve that reflects the dynamic of the system's benefit-to-cost ratio from the time of the system's inception (Fig. 6.2). An analysis of innovation activity allows for positioning the technology or product of interest on its S-curve, thus helping to define the technology (product) strategy.
(2) Phase 2: determination of high-potential innovations. At this phase, the laws and lines of evolution are used to identify strategic directions of the technology's evolution. In addition, the current innovation landscape (strategy) is analyzed and new ideas are developed.
(3) Phase 3: concept development. As a rule, transition from one stage of evolution to the next is accompanied by the development of system conflicts and other conceptual design problems that need to be resolved.
(4) Phase 4: concept selection and technology plan. In this phase, the developed concepts are evaluated against various engineering, economic and other criteria, and the best ones are selected for both short- and long-term testing and implementation.
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