The Indonesian economy managed to achieve solid growth after successfully weathering the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. The economy grew at 4.5 per cent in 2009, and is likely to grow at 6.0 per cent in 2010 and 6.2 per cent in 2011. This kind of performance is making many Indonesians wonder whether Indonesia could soon join the BRIC group.

The term ‘BRIC’ was coined by in 2001, by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs, to refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China, which were experiencing such rapid economic growth they were expected to overtake the U.S. by 2018. Since then, the term has come to symbolize the shift in global power away from the G-7 advanced economies (U.S., Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada) toward the four BRIC economies.

IMF figures (below) show that over the period 2014–2030 the BRICs will grow so fast that their share of the world economy will increase from 19.4 per cent to 30.3 per cent, exceeding the economies of the U.S., the E.U. and Japan. In 2010, China overtook Japan as the second-largest economy in the world after the U.S., but with a projected 2030 GDP at 94 per cent of that of America, China's economy will not be far behind the U.S.

Indonesia still has a long way to go before it will be able to match the BRICs’ economic size. In 2010 Indonesia's GDP only accounted for about one third of India's GDP, and will likely remain so in 2030.

Is the ‘BRIC’ grouping still relevant?

Since 2001, much has changed. For instance, Russia's low growth, pervasive corruption, and inability to diversify its economy away from its over-dependence on oil and gas exports, may mean that it can no longer be considered a BRIC economy.

And despite the fact that in 2007 the Indian economy was less than one half of that of Russia, by 2030 the Indian economy will be almost as large as Russia's because of its much higher growth rates. Thus, BRIC's relevance must be in doubt. If Indonesia maintains its rapid growth, the term ‘BIIC’ (Brazil, India, Indonesia, China) may be a more appropriate substitute.