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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 November 2011
INTRODUCTION
For many years, discussion of long-term trends in the height of populations was dominated by the concept of the ‘secular trend’ which was contrasted with other short-term causes of variation, such as those associated with famines and with wars. As Tanner puts it (1978: 150–1):
During approximately the last hundred years in industrialized countries, and recently in some developing ones, children have been getting larger and growing to maturity more rapidly. This is known as the ‘secular trend’ in growth. Its magnitude is such that in Europe, America and Japan it has dwarfed the differences between occupational groups… From about 1900 to the present, children in average economic circumstances have increased in height at ages 5 to 7 years by about 1–2 cm per decade. The trend starts early in childhood, as pre-school data make clear. At least in Britain it began a considerable time ago … During the same period there has been an upward trend in adult height but only to the lesser degree of about 1 cm per decade since 1880.
‘Secular’ is used here in the sense of ‘continuing through long ages’ and, although Tanner was careful to limit his statements to what was then known from various sources about heights in the past, less cautious commentators tended to envisage an upward trend from some far distant time to the present.
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