Galvin, KA. Transitions: pastoralists living with change. Annual Review of Anthropology. 2009;38:185–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Boserup, E. The conditions of agricultural growth: the economics of agrarian change under population pressure. London: Aldine Publishing Company; 1965.Google Scholar

McIntire, J, Bourzat, D, Pingali, P. Crop–livestock interaction in sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 1992.Google Scholar

Venables, AJ, Limão, N. Geographical disadvantage. Policy Research Working Paper 2256. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 1999.Google Scholar

Steffen, W, Broadgate, W, Deutsch, L, Gaffney, O, Ludwig, C. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the great acceleration. The Anthropocene Review. 2015;2(1):81–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Homewood, K, Lambin, EF, Coast, E, Kariuki, A, Kikula, I, Kivelia, J, et al. Long-term changes in Serengeti–Mara wildebeest and land cover: pastoralism, population, or policies? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2001;98(22):12,544–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Steinfeld, H, Gerber, P, Wassenaar, T, Castel, V, de Haan, C. Livestock’s long shadow: environmental issues and options. Rome: Food & Agriculture Organization; 2006.Google Scholar

Herrero, M, Addison, J, Bedelian, C, Carabine, E, Havlík, P, Henderson, B, et al. Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Revue Scientifique et Technique, Office International des Epizooties. 2016;35(2):417–33.Google ScholarPubMed

Hobbs, NT, Galvin, KA, Stokes, CJ, Lackett, JM, Ash, AJ, Boone, RB, et al. Fragmentation of rangelands: implications for humans, animals, and landscapes. Global Environmental Change. 2008;18(4):776–85.Google Scholar

Thornton, PK, van de Steeg, J, Notenbaert, A, Herrero, M. The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: a review of what we know and what we need to know. Agricultural Systems. 2009;101(3):113–27.Google Scholar

Reid, RS, Fernández-Giménez, ME, Galvin, KA. Dynamics and resilience of rangelands and pastoral peoples around the globe. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2014;39:217–42.Google Scholar

Porter, JR, Xie, L, Challinor, AJ, Cochrane, K, Howden, SM, Iqbal, MM, et al. Food security and food production systems. In: Field, CB, Barros, VR, editors. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability part A: global and sectoral aspects. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2014.Google Scholar

Boone, RB, Conant, RT, Sircely, J, Thornton, PK, Herrero, M. Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services. Global Change Biology. 2018;24(3):1382–93.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Havlík, P, Leclère, D, Valin, H, Herrero, M, Schmid, E, Soussana, JF, et al. Global climate change, food supply and livestock production systems: a bioeconomic analysis. In: Elbehri, A, editor. Climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade. Rome: Food & Agriculture Organization; 2015.Google Scholar

Homewood, K, Kristjanson, P, Trench, P. Staying Maasai? Livelihoods, conservation and development in East African rangelands. New York, NY: Springer; 2009.Google Scholar

Thornton, PK, Herrero, M. Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature Climate Change. 2015;5(9):830.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Reid, RS, Galvin, KA, Kruska, RS. Fragmentation in semi-arid and arid landscapes. In: Galvin, KA, Reid, RS, Behnke, R, Hobbs, NT, editors. Consequences for human and natural systems. Dordrecht: Springer; 2008. pp. 1–24.Google Scholar

Turner, MD, McPeak, JG, Ayantunde, A. The role of livestock mobility in the livelihood strategies of rural peoples in semi-arid West Africa. Human Ecology. 2014;42(2):231–47.Google Scholar

Megersa, B, Markemann, A, Angassa, A, Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Zárate, AV. Livestock diversification: an adaptive strategy to climate and rangeland ecosystem changes in southern Ethiopia. Human Ecology. 2014;42(4):509–20.Google Scholar

Lennox, E. Double exposure to climate change and globalization in a Peruvian highland community. Society & Natural Resources. 2015;28(7):781–96.Google Scholar

Shackleton, R, Shackleton, C, Shackleton, S, Gambiza, J. Deagrarianisation and forest revegetation in a biodiversity hotspot on the Wild Coast, South Africa. PLoS ONE. 2013;8(10):e76939.Google Scholar

Liao, C, Fei, D. Sedentarization as constrained adaptation: evidence from pastoral regions in far northwestern China. Human Ecology. 2017;45(1):23–35.Google Scholar

López-i-Gelats, F, Paco, JC, Huayra, RH, Robles, ODS, Peña, ECQ, Filella, JB. Adaptation strategies of Andean pastoralist households to both climate and non-climate changes. Human Ecology. 2015;43(2):267–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Namgay, K, Millar, JE, Black, RS, Samdup, T. Changes in transhumant agro-pastoralism in Bhutan: a disappearing livelihood? Human Ecology. 2014;42(5):779–92.Google Scholar

Xu, J, Yang, Y, Li, Z, Tashi, N, Sharma, R, Fang, J. Understanding land use, livelihoods, and health transitions among Tibetan nomads: a case from Gangga Township, Dingri County, Tibetan Autonomous Region of China. EcoHealth. 2008;5(2):104.Google Scholar

Schmidt, M, Pearson, O. Pastoral livelihoods under pressure: ecological, political and socioeconomic transitions in Afar (Ethiopia). Journal of Arid Environments. 2016;124:22–30.Google Scholar

Galvin, KA, Beeton, TA, Boone, RB, BurnSilver, SB. Nutritional status of Maasai pastoralists under change. Human Ecology. 2015;43(3):411–24.Google Scholar

Lkhagvadorj, D, Hauck, M, Dulamsuren, C, Tsogtbaatar, J. Pastoral nomadism in the forest-steppe of the Mongolian Altai under a changing economy and a warming climate. Journal of Arid Environments. 2013;88:82–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Ogalleh, SA, Vogl, CR, Eitzinger, J, Hauser, M. Local perceptions and responses to climate change and variability: the case of Laikipia District, Kenya. Sustainability. 2012;4(12):3302–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Rufino, MC, Thornton, PK, Mutie, I, Jones, PG, Van Wijk, MT, Herrero, M. Transitions in agro-pastoralist systems of East Africa: impacts on food security and poverty. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 2013;179:215–30.Google Scholar

Antwi-Agyei, P, Stringer, LC, Dougill, AJ. Livelihood adaptations to climate variability: insights from farming households in Ghana. Regional Environmental Change. 2014;14(4):1615–26.Google Scholar

Ash, A, Thornton, P, Stokes, C, Togtohyn, C. Is proactive adaptation to climate change necessary in grazed rangelands? Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2012;65(6):563–8.Google Scholar

de Leeuw, J, Osano, P, Said, MY, Ayantunde, AA, Dube, S, Neely, C, et al. Pastoral farming systems and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Priorities for science and policy. In: Dixon, J, Garrity, DP, Boffa, J-M, Williams, TO, Amede, T, Auricht, C, et al., editors. Farming systems and food security in Africa: priorities for science and policy under global change. London: Routledge; 2017.Google Scholar

Thornton, PK, Boone, RB, Ramirez-Villegas, J. Climate change impacts on livestock. CCAFS Working Paper no. 120. Copenhagen: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS); 2015.Google Scholar

Asongu, SA, Nwachukwu, JC. The mobile phone in the diffusion of knowledge for institutional quality in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development. 2016;86:133–47.Google Scholar

Rogelj, J, Schaeffer, M, Friedlingstein, P, Gillett, NP, Van Vuuren, DP, Riahi, K, et al. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. Nature Climate Change. 2016;6(3):245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Doherty, RM, Sitch, S, Smith, B, Lewis, SL, Thornton, PK. Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO₂ content for regional biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa. Global Change Biology. 2010;16(2):617–40.Google Scholar

Jones, PG, Thornton, PK. Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy. 2009;12(4):427–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Weindl, I, Lotze-Campen, H, Popp, A, Müller, C, Havlík, P, Herrero, M, et al. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture. Environmental Research Letters. 2015;10(9):094021.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Havlík, P, Valin, H, Herrero, M, Obersteiner, M, Schmid, E, Rufino, MC, et al. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2014;111(10):3709–14.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Lieffering, M, Newton, PCD, Vibart, R, Li, FY. Exploring climate change impacts and adaptations of extensive pastoral agriculture systems by combining biophysical simulation and farm system models. Agricultural Systems. 2016;144:77–86.Google Scholar

Thornton, PK, Boone, RB, Galvin, KA, BurnSilver, SB, Waithaka, MM, Kuyiah, J, et al. Coping strategies in livestock-dependent households in east and southern Africa: a synthesis of four case studies. Human Ecology. 2007;35(4):461–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Puig, CJ, Greiner, R, Huchery, C, Perkins, I, Bowen, L, Collier, N, et al. Beyond cattle: potential futures of the pastoral industry in the Northern Territory. The Rangeland Journal. 2011;33(2):181–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Murakami, D, Yamagata, Y. Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling. arXiv preprint arXiv:161009041. 2016.Google Scholar

Nelson, A. Estimated travel time to the nearest city of 50,000 or more people in year 2000. Global Environment Monitoring Unit–Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy. Available at http://biovaljrceceuropaeu/products/gam/ (accessed 11/07/2017). 2008.Google Scholar

Jurković, RS, Pasarić, Z. Spatial variability of annual precipitation using globally gridded data sets from 1951 to 2000. International Journal of Climatology. 2013;33(3):690–8.Google Scholar

Schilling, J, Akuno, M, Scheffran, J, Weinzierl, T. On raids and relations: climate change, pastoral conflict and adaptation in northwestern Kenya. In: Bronkhorst, S, Urmilla, B, editors. Climate change and conflict: where to for conflict sensitive climate adaptation in Africa? Berlin: Wissenschaftsverlag; 2014. pp. 241–68.Google Scholar

Lipper, L, Thornton, P, Campbell, BM, Baedeker, T, Braimoh, A, Bwalya, M, et al. Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nature Climate Change. 2014;4(12):1068.Google Scholar

Butler, CK, Gates, S. African range wars: climate, conflict, and property rights. Journal of Peace Research. 2012;49(1):23–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Davis, J, Lopez-Carr, D. Migration, remittances and smallholder decision-making: implications for land use and livelihood change in Central America. Land Use Policy. 2014;36:319–29.Google Scholar

Jensen, ND, Barrett, CB, Mude, AG. Index insurance quality and basis risk: evidence from northern Kenya. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2016;98(5):1450–69.Google Scholar

Köhler-Rollefson, I. Innovations and diverse livelihood pathways: alternative livelihoods, livelihood diversification and societal transformation in pastoral communities. Revue Scientifique et Technique–Office International des Epizooties. 2016;35(2):611–8.Google Scholar

Greiner, R, Puig, J, Huchery, C, Collier, N, Garnett, ST. Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2014;55:120–31.Google Scholar

Vervoort, JM, Bendor, R, Kelliher, A, Strik, O, Helfgott, AER. Scenarios and the art of worldmaking. Futures. 2015;74:62–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Thornton, PK, van de Steeg, J, Notenbaert, A, Herrero, M. The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: a review of what we know and what we need to know. Agricultural Systems. 2009;101(3):113–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Herrero, M, Addison, J, Bedelian, C, Carabine, E, Havlík, P, Henderson, B, et al. Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Revue Scientifique et Technique. 2016;35(2):417–33.Google Scholar

Seo, SN, Mendelsohn, R. An analysis of crop choice: adapting to climate change in South American farms. Ecological Economics. 2008;67(1):109–16.Google Scholar

Netting, RMc. Smallholders, householders: farm families and the ecology of intensive, sustainable agriculture. Stanford, CA: StanfordUniversity Press; 1993.Google Scholar

Dove, MR. Southeast Asian grasslands: understanding a folk landscape. New York, NY: New York Botanical Gardens Press; 2008.Google Scholar

MacDonald, GE. Cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica) – biology, ecology, and management. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences. 2004;23(5):367–80.Google Scholar

Bartlett, HH. Fire in relation to primitive agriculture and grazing in the tropics; annotated bibliography. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Botanical Gardens; Vol. 1, 1955.Google Scholar

Dove, MR. Perception of volcanic eruption as agent of change on Merapi volcano, Central Java. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2008;172(3–4):329–37.Google Scholar

Th Pigeaud, TG. Java in the fourteenth century. Vol. IV Commentaries and recapitulations. The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff; 1962.Google Scholar

Wolff, JU. The place of plant names in reconstructing Proto Austronesian. In: Pawley, AK, Ross, MD, editors. Austronesian terminologies: continuity and change. Canberra: Department of Linguistics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University; 1994: pp. 511–40.Google Scholar

Hadiwidjojo, GP. Alang-Alang, kumitir. Paper presented at the Radya Pustaka Museum, 28 December 1956. Surakarta, Central Java, Indonesia.Google Scholar

Carpenter, C. Brides and bride-dressers in contemporary Java [dissertation]. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University; 1987.Google Scholar

Oxford English Dictionary. ‘swidden, n.’. Oxford: Oxford University Press (available from: http://bit.ly/2qyMSWN).Google Scholar

Conklin, HC. Shifting cultivation and succession to grassland climax. Proceedings of the Ninth Pacific Science Congress of the Pacific Science Association; 1959.Google Scholar

Dove, MR. Peasant versus government perception and use of the environment: a case-study of Banjarese ecology and river basin development in South Kalimantan. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies. 1986;17(1):113–36.Google Scholar

Dove, MR. The practical reason of weeds in Indonesia: peasant vs. state views of Imperata and Chromolaena imper. Human Ecology. 1986;14(2):163–90.Google Scholar

Clements, FE. Plant succession: an analysis of the development of vegetation. Washington, DC: Carnegie Institution of Washington; 1916.Google Scholar

Worster, D. The ecology of order and chaos. Environmental History Review. 1990;14(1/2):1–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Laris, P, Caillault, S, Dadashi, S, Jo, A. The human ecology and geography of burning in an unstable savanna environment. Journal of Ethnobiology. 2015;35(1):111–39.Google Scholar

Wharton, CH. Man, fire and wild cattle in Southeast Asia. In: Proceedings of the Annual Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference; 1968;8:107–67; Tallahassee, FL: Tall Timbers Research Station.Google Scholar

Sherman, G. What ‘green desert’? The ecology of Batak grassland farming. Indonesia. 1980;29:113–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Lefebvre, H. The production of space (trans. Nicholson-Smith D). Oxford: Blackwell; 1991.Google Scholar

Harvey, D. Justice, nature and the geography of difference. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell; 1996.Google Scholar

Fan, M, Li, Y, Li, W. Solving one problem by creating a bigger one: the consequences of ecological resettlement for grassland restoration and poverty alleviation in Northwestern China. Land Use Policy. 2015;42:124–30.Google Scholar

Holm, LG, Plucknett, DL, Pancho, JV, Herberger, JP. The world’s worst weeds. Honolulu, HI: University Press of Hawaii for the East-West Center; 1977.Google Scholar

Bryson, CT, Carter, R. Cogongrass, Imperata cylindrica, in the United States. Weed alert! Weed Technology. 1993;7(4):1005–9.Google Scholar

Bradley, BA, Wilcove, DS, Oppenheimer, M. Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States. Biological Invasions. 2010;12(6):1855–72.Google Scholar

Geertz, C. Agricultural involution: the process of ecological change in Indonesia. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press; 1966.Google Scholar

Oxford English Dictionary. ‘weed, n.1’. Oxford: Oxford University Press (updated 15 April 2018; available from: http://bit.ly/2H4jwWF).Google Scholar

Dove, M. The banana tree at the gate: a history of marginal peoples and global markets in Borneo. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press; 2011.Google Scholar

Lippincott, CL. Effects of Imperata cylindrica (L.) Beauv. (Cogongrass) invasion on fire regime in Florida Sandhill (USA). Natural Areas Journal. 2000;20(2):140–9.Google Scholar

Sunderlin, WD, Larson, AM, Duchelle, AE, Resosudarmo, IAP, Huynh, TB, Awono, A, et al. How are REDD+ proponents addressing tenure problems? Evidence from Brazil, Cameroon, Tanzania, Indonesia, and Vietnam. World Development. 2014;55:37–52.Google Scholar

Hsiang, SM, Burke, M, Miguel, E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science. 2013;341(6151):1235367.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Byerlee, D, Falcon, WP, Naylor, R. The tropical oil crop revolution: food, feed, fuel, and forests. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Mayer, AL, Khalyani, AH. Grass trumps trees with fire. Science. 2011;334(6053):188–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Staver, AC, Archibald, S, Levin, SA. The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science. 2011;334(6053):230–2.Google Scholar

Andela, N, Morton, DC, Giglio, L, Chen, Y, van der Werf, GR, Kasibhatla, PS, et al. A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science. 2017;356(6345):1356–62.Google Scholar

Barnes, J. Cultivating the Nile: the everyday politics of water in Egypt. Durham, NC: Duke University Press; 2014.Google Scholar

Li, A, Yarime, M. Polarization and clustering in scientific debates and problem framing: network analysis of the science–policy interface for grassland management in China. Ecology and Society. 2017;22(3).Google Scholar

Moore, FC, Mankin, JS, Becker, A. Challenges in integrating the climate and social sciences for studies of climate change impacts and adaptation. In: Barnes, J, Dove, MR, editors. Climate cultures: anthropological perspectives on climate change. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press; 2015: pp. 169–95.Google Scholar

Demeritt, D. The construction of global warming and the politics of science. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 2001;91(2):307–37.Google Scholar

Hulme, M. Reducing the future to climate: a story of climate determinism and reductionism. Osiris. 2011;26(1):245–66.Google Scholar

National Research Council. Rangeland health: new methods to classify, inventory, and monitor rangelands. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 1994.Google Scholar

Tongway, DJ, Hindley, NL. Landscape function analysis manual: procedures for monitoring and assessing landscapes with special reference to minesites and rangelands. Canberra; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; 2004.Google Scholar

Harris, RB. Rangeland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau: a review of the evidence of its magnitude and causes. Journal of Arid Environments. 2010;74(1):1–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Eldridge, DJ, Koen, TB. Detecting environmental change in eastern Australia: rangeland health in the semi-arid woodlands. Science of the Total Environment. 2003;310(1–3):211–9.Google Scholar

Damdinsuren, B, Herrick, JE, Pyke, DA, Bestelmeyer, BT, Havstad, KM. Is rangeland health relevant to Mongolia? Rangelands. 2008;30(4):25–9.Google Scholar

Bestelmeyer, BT, Duniway, MC, James, DK, Burkett, LM, Havstad, KM. A test of critical thresholds and their indicators in a desertification-prone ecosystem: more resilience than we thought. Ecology Letters. 2013;16(3):339–45.Google Scholar

Pellant, M, Shaver, P, Pyke, D, Herrick, J. Interpreting indicators of rangeland health. Version 4.0. Interagency Technical Reference 1734–6. Denver, CO: Bureau of Land Management; 2005.Google Scholar

O’Brien, RA, Johnson, CM, Wilson, AM, Elsbernd, Cv. Indicators of rangeland health and functionality in the Intermountain West. General Technical Report – Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service. 2003 (RMRS-GTR-104).Google Scholar

Herrick, JE, Van Zee, JW, Havstad, KM, Burkett, LM, Whitford, WG. Monitoring manual for grassland, shrubland and savanna ecosystems. Las Cruces, NM: USDA-ARS Jornada Experimental Range: University of Arizona Press; 2005.Google Scholar

Herrick, JE, Lessard, VC, Spaeth, KE, Shaver, PL, Dayton, RS, Pyke, DA, et al. National ecosystem assessments supported by scientific and local knowledge. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2010;8(8):403–8.Google Scholar

Toevs, GR, Karl, JW, Taylor, JJ, Spurrier, CS, Karl, MS, Bobo, MR, et al. Consistent indicators and methods and a scalable sample design to meet assessment, inventory, and monitoring information needs across scales. Rangelands. 2011;33(4):14–20.Google Scholar

Bestelmeyer, BT, Tugel, AJ, Peacock, GL, Robinett, DG, Sbaver, PL, Brown, JR, et al. State-and-transition models for heterogeneous landscapes: a strategy for development and application. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2009;62(1):1–15.Google Scholar

Bestelmeyer, BT, Ellison, AM, Fraser, WR, Gorman, KB, Holbrook, SJ, Laney, CM, et al. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems. Ecosphere. 2011;2(12):art129.Google Scholar

Duniway, MC, Nauman, TW, Johanson, JK, Green, S, Miller, ME, Williamson, JC, et al. Generalizing ecological site concepts of the Colorado plateau for landscape-level applications. Rangelands. 2016;38(6):342–9.Google Scholar

Miller, ME, Belote, RT, Bowker, MA, Garman, SL. Alternative states of a semiarid grassland ecosystem: implications for ecosystem services. Ecosphere. 2011;2(5):1–18.Google Scholar

Polley, HW, Bailey, DW, Nowak, RS, Stafford-Smith, M. Ecological consequences of climate change on rangelands. In: Briske, DD, editor. Rangeland systems: processes, management and challenges. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2017: pp. 229–60.Google Scholar

Briske, DD, Joyce, LA, Polley, HW, Brown, JR, Wolter, K, Morgan, JA, et al. Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2015;13(5):249–56.Google Scholar

Collins, M, Knutti, R, Arblaster, J, Dufresne, J-L, Fichefet, T, Friedlingstein, P, et al. Chapter 12 – Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: IPCC, editor. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis IPCC Working Group I Contribution to AR5. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2013.Google Scholar

Schlaepfer, DR, Bradford, JB, Lauenroth, WK, Munson, SM, Tietjen, B, Hall, SA, et al. Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils. Nature Communications. 2017;8:14196.Google Scholar

McCollum, DW, Tanaka, JA, Morgan, JA, Mitchell, JE, Fox, WE, Maczko, KA, et al. Climate change effects on rangelands and rangeland management: affirming the need for monitoring. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability. 2017;3(3):e01264-n/a.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Diffenbaugh, NS, Singh, D, Mankin, JS, Horton, DE, Swain, DL, Touma, D, et al. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2017;114(19):4881–6.Google Scholar

Polade, SD, Pierce, DW, Cayan, DR, Gershunov, A, Dettinger, MD. The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Scientific Reports. 2014;4:4364.Google Scholar

Pohl, B, Macron, C, Monerie, P-A. Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa. Scientific Reports. 2017;7:46466.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Sala, OE, Lauenroth, WK, Gollucio, RA, Smith, TM, Shugart, HH, Woodward, FI. Plant functional types in temperate semiarid regions. Cambridge.: Cambridge University Press; 1997: pp. 217–33.Google Scholar

Lauenroth, WK, Schlaepfer, DR, Bradford, JB. Ecohydrology of dry regions: storage versus pulse soil water dynamics. Ecosystems. 2014;17(8):1469–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Andrews, CA, Bradford, JB, Norris, J, Thomas, L, Swan, M, Palumbo, J, et al. Describing past and future soil moisture in shallow loamy pinyon–juniper woodlands communities at Mesa Verde National Park. Project brief. Fort Collins, CO: National Park Service; 2018.Google Scholar

Andrews, CA, Bradford, JB, Norris, J, Thomas, L, Swan, M, Palumbo, J, et al. Describing past and future soil moisture in sandy loam grassland communities at Petrifted Forest National Park. Project brief. Fort Collins, CO: National Park Service; 2018.Google Scholar

Smith, MD, Knapp, AK, Collins, SL. A framework for assessing ecosystem dynamics in response to chronic resource alterations induced by global change. Ecology. 2009;90(12):3279–89.Google Scholar

McDowell, NG. Mechanisms linking drought, hydraulics, carbon metabolism, and vegetation mortality. Plant Physiology. 2011;155(3):1051–9.Google Scholar

McDowell, N, Pockman, WT, Allen, CD, Breshears, DD, Cobb, N, Kolb, T, et al. Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought? New Phytologist. 2008;178(4):719–39.Google Scholar

Bradford, JB, Schlaepfer, DR, Lauenroth, WK, Yackulic, CB, Duniway, M, Hall, S, et al. Future soil moisture and temperature extremes imply expanding suitability for rainfed agriculture in temperate drylands. Scientific Reports. 2017;7(1):12923.Google Scholar

Mueller, KE, Blumenthal, DM, Pendall, E, Carrillo, Y, Dijkstra, FA, Williams, DG, et al. Impacts of warming and elevated CO₂ on a semi-arid grassland are non-additive, shift with precipitation, and reverse over time. Ecology Letters. 2016;19(8):956–66.Google Scholar

Becklin, KM, Anderson, JT, Gerhart, LM, Wadgymar, SM, Wessinger, CA, Ward, JK. Examining plant physiological responses to climate change through an evolutionary lens. Plant Physiology. 2016;172(2):635.Google Scholar

Munson, SM, Long, AL. Climate drives shifts in grass reproductive phenology across the western USA. New Phytologist. 2017;213(4):1945–55.Google Scholar

Lauenroth, WK, Sala, OE. Long-term forage production of North American shortgrass steppe. Ecological Applications. 1992;2:397–403.Google Scholar

Bunting, EL, Munson, SM, Villarreal, ML. Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S. Ecological Indicators. 2017;74:216–29.Google Scholar

Sala, OE, Gherardi, LA, Reichmann, L, Jobbágy, E, Peters, D. Legacies of precipitation fluctuations on primary production: theory and data synthesis. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2012;367(1606):3135–44.Google Scholar

Knapp, AK, Smith, MD. Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production. Science. 2001;291:481–4.Google Scholar

Huxman, TE, Smith, MD, Fay, PA, Knapp, AK, Shaw, MR, Loik, ME, et al. Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency. Nature. 2004;429(6992):651–4.Google Scholar

Heisler-White, JL, Blair, JM, Kelly, EF, Harmoney, K, Knapp, AK. Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome. Global Change Biology. 2009;15(12):2894–904.Google Scholar

Campbell, BD, Stafford Smith, DM. A synthesis of recent global change research on pasture and rangeland production: reduced uncertainties and their management implications. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 2000;82(1):39–55.Google Scholar

Poorter, H, Navas, M-L. Plant growth and competition at elevated CO₂: on winners, losers and functional groups. New Phytologist. 2003;157(2):175–98.Google Scholar

Browning, DM, Duniway, MC, Laliberte, AS, Rango, A. Hierarchical analysis of vegetation dynamics over 71 years: soil–rainfall interactions in a Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem. Ecological Applications. 2012;22(3):909–26.Google Scholar

Sankaran, M, Hanan, NP, Scholes, RJ, Ratnam, J, Augustine, DJ, Cade, BS, et al. Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature. 2005;438(7069):846–9.Google Scholar

D’Antonio, CM, Vitousek, PM. Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. 1992;23:63–87.Google Scholar

Sandel, B, Dangremond, EM. Climate change and the invasion of California by grasses. Global Change Biology. 2012;18(1):277–89.Google Scholar

Schlesinger, WH. Biogeochemistry: an analysis of global change. San Diego, CA: Academic Press; 1997.Google Scholar

Munson, SM, Belnap, J, Okin, GS. Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2011;108(10):3854–9.Google Scholar

Nearing, MA, Pruski, FF, O’Neal, MR. Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: a review. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 2004;59(1):43–50.Google Scholar

Hoover, DL, Duniway, MC, Belnap, J. Testing the apparent resistance of three dominant plants to chronic drought on the Colorado Plateau. Journal of Ecology. 2017;105(1):152–62.Google Scholar

Gremer, JR, Bradford, JB, Munson, SM, Duniway, MC. Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States. Global Change Biology. 2015;21(11):4049–62.Google Scholar

Nusser, SM, Goebel, JJ. The National Resources Inventory: a long-term multi-resource monitoring programme. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 1997;4(3):181–204.Google Scholar

Munson, SM, Duniway, MC, Johanson, JK. Rangeland monitoring reveals long-term plant responses to precipitation and grazing at the landscape scale. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2016;69(1):76–83.Google Scholar

Miller, ME. Broad-scale assessment of rangeland health, Grand Staircase–Escalante National Monument, USA. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2008;61(3):249–62.Google Scholar

Bradford, JB, Betancourt, JL, Butterfield, BJ, Munson, SM, Wood, TE. Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a dynamic future. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2018;16(5):295–303.Google Scholar

Toevs, GR, Taylor, JJ, Spurrier, CS, MacKinnon, WC, Bobo, MR. Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring Strategy for Integrated Renewable Resources Management. US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, National Operations Center; 2011.Google Scholar

Hunt, ER Jr, Everitt, JH, Ritchie, JC, Moran, MS, Booth, DT, Anderson, GL, et al. Applications and research using remote sensing for rangeland management. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing. 2003;69(6):675–93.Google Scholar

Joyce, LA, Briske, DD, Brown, JR, Polley, HW, McCarl, BA, Bailey, DW. Climate change and North American rangelands: assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2013;66(5):512–28.Google Scholar

West, NE. History of rangeland monitoring in the U.S.A. Arid Land Research and Management. 2003;17(4):495–545.Google Scholar

Ellis, EC, Ramankutty, N. Putting people in the map: anthropogenic biomes of the world. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2008;6(8):439–47.Google Scholar

Gang, CC, Zhou, W, Chen, YZ, Wang, ZQ, Sun, ZG, Li, JL, et al. Quantitative assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities on global grassland degradation. Environmental Earth Sciences. 2014;72(11):4273–82.Google Scholar

Baer, SG, Heneghan, L, Eviner, V. Applying soil ecological knowledge to restore ecosystem services. In: Wall, DH, Bardgett, RD, Behan-Pelletier, V, Herrick, JE, Jones, HP, Ritz, K, et al., editors. Soil ecology and ecosystem services. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2012. pp. 377–93.Google Scholar

Hobbs, RJ, Cramer, VA. Restoration ecology: interventionist approaches for restoring and maintaining ecosystem function in the face of rapid environmental change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2008;33:39–61.Google Scholar

Society for Ecological Restoration International Science Policy Working Group. The SER international primer on ecological restoration. Tuscon, AZ: Society for Ecological Restoration International; 2004.Google Scholar

Harris, JA, Hobbs, RJ, Higgs, E, Aronson, J. Ecological restoration and global climate change. Restoration Ecology. 2006;14(2):170–6.Google Scholar

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and human well-being: biodiversity synthesis. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute; 2005.Google Scholar

Smith, NG, Schuster, MJ, Dukes, JS. Rainfall variability and nitrogen addition synergistically reduce plant diversity in a restored tallgrass prairie. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2016;53(2):579–86.Google Scholar

White, PS, Walker, JL. Approximating nature’s variation: selecting and using reference information in restoration ecology. Restoration Ecology. 1997;5(4):338–49.Google Scholar

Papanastasis, VP. Restoration of degraded grazing lands through grazing management: can it work? Restoration Ecology. 2009;17(4):441–5.Google Scholar

Ehrenfeld, JG, Ravit, B, Elgersma, K. Feedback in the plant–soil system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2005;30:75–115.Google Scholar

Reinhart, KO, Callaway, RM. Soil biota and invasive plants. New Phytologist. 2006;170(3):445–57.Google Scholar

White, PS, Jentsch, A. Disturbance, succession, and community assembly in terrestrial plant communities. In: Temperton, VM, Hobbs, RJ, Nuttle, T, Hale, S, editors. Assembly rules and restoration ecology. Washington, DC: Island Press; 2004. pp. 342–66.Google Scholar

McIntyre, S, Nicholls, AO, Manning, AD. Trajectories of floristic change in grassland: landscape, land use legacy and seasonal conditions overshadow restoration actions. Applied Vegetation Science. 2017;20(4):582–93.Google Scholar

McGovern, ST, Evans, CD, Dennis, P, Walmsley, CA, Turner, A, McDonald, MA. Increased inorganic nitrogen leaching from a mountain grassland ecosystem following grazing removal: a hangover of past intensive land-use? Biogeochemistry. 2014;119(1–3):125–38.Google Scholar

Peters, DPC, Havstad, KM, Archer, SR, Sala, OE. Beyond desertification: new paradigms for dryland landscapes. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2015;13(1):4–12.Google Scholar

Nsikani, MM, van Wilgen, BW, Gaertner, M. Barriers to ecosystem restoration presented by soil legacy effects of invasive alien N-2-fixing woody species: implications for ecological restoration. Restoration Ecology. 2018;26(2):235–44.Google Scholar

Hawkes, CV, Wren, IF, Herman, DJ, Firestone, MK. Plant invasion alters nitrogen cycling by modifying the soil nitrifying community. Ecology Letters. 2005;8(9):976–85.Google Scholar

Mitsch, WJ, Jorgensen, SE. Ecological engineering and ecosystem restoration. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley; 2004.Google Scholar

Brudvig, LA, Barak, RS, Bauer, JT, Caughlin, TT, Laughlin, DC, Larios, L, et al. Interpreting variation to advance predictive restoration science. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2017;54(4):1018–27.Google Scholar

Hobbs, RJ, Harris, JA. Restoration ecology: repairing the Earth’s ecosystems in the new millennium. Restoration Ecology. 2001;9(2):239–46.Google Scholar

Peters, DPC, Yao, J, Sala, OE, Anderson, JP. Directional climate change and potential reversal of desertification in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Global Change Biology. 2012;18(1):151–63.Google Scholar

Hipp, AL, Larkin, DJ, Barak, RS, Bowles, ML, Cadotte, MW, Jacobi, SK, et al. Phylogeny in the service of ecological restoration. American Journal of Botany. 2015;102(5):647–8.Google Scholar

Smith, AB, Alsdurf, J, Knapp, M, Baer, SG, Johnson, LC. Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: a shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change. Global Change Biology. 2017;23(10):4365–75.Google Scholar

Beaumont, LJ, Hughes, L. Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Global Change Biology. 2002;8(10):954–71.Google Scholar

Notaro, M, Mauss, A, Williams, JW. Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach. Ecological Applications. 2012;22(4):1365–88.Google Scholar

Araujo, MB, Pearson, RG, Thuiller, W, Erhard, M. Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology. 2005;11(9):1504–13.Google Scholar

Heikkinen, RK, Luoto, M, Araujo, MB, Virkkala, R, Thuiller, W, Sykes, MT. Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography. 2006;30(6):751–77.Google Scholar

Booth, TH. Identifying particular areas for potential seed collections for restoration plantings under climate change. Ecological Management & Restoration. 2016;17(3):228–34.Google Scholar

Gray, MM, St Amand, P, Bello, NM, Galliart, MB, Knapp, M, Garrett, KA, et al. Ecotypes of an ecologically dominant prairie grass (Andropogon gerardii) exhibit genetic divergence across the US Midwest grasslands’ environmental gradient. Molecular Ecology. 2014;23(24):6011–28.Google Scholar

Johnson, LC, Olsen, JT, Tetreault, H, DeLaCruz, A, Bryant, J, Morgan, TJ, et al. Intraspecific variation of a dominant grass and local adaptation in reciprocal garden communities along a US Great Plains’ precipitation gradient: implications for grassland restoration with climate change. Evolutionary Applications. 2015;8(7):705–23.Google Scholar

Nixon, AE, Fisher, RJ, Stralberg, D, Bayne, EM, Farr, DR. Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada. Avian Conservation and Ecology. 2016;11(2).Google Scholar

Jennings, MD, Harris, GM. Climate change and ecosystem composition across large landscapes. Landscape Ecology. 2017;32(1):195–207.Google Scholar

Broadhurst, LM, Lowe, A, Coates, DJ, Cunningham, SA, McDonald, M, Vesk, PA, et al. Seed supply for broadscale restoration: maximizing evolutionary potential. Evolutionary Applications. 2008;1(4):587–97.Google Scholar

Hufford, KM, Mazer, SJ. Plant ecotypes: genetic differentiation in the age of ecological restoration. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2003;18(3):147–55.Google Scholar

Jones, TA. Ecologically appropriate plant materials for restoration applications. Bioscience. 2013;63(3):211–9.Google Scholar

Maschinski, J, Wright, SJ, Koptur, S, Pinto-Torres, EC. When is local the best paradigm? Breeding history influences conservation reintroduction survival and population trajectories in times of extreme climate events. Biological Conservation. 2013;159:277–84.Google Scholar

McKay, JK, Christian, CE, Harrison, S, Rice, KJ. ‘How local is local?’ A review of practical and conceptual issues in the genetics of restoration. Restoration Ecology. 2005;13(3):432–40.Google Scholar

Vander Mijnsbrugge, K, Bischoff, A, Smith, B. A question of origin: where and how to collect seed for ecological restoration. Basic and Applied Ecology. 2010;11(4):300–11.Google Scholar

Daehler, CC, Strong, DR. Status, prediction and prevention of introduced cordgrass Spartina spp invasions in Pacific estuaries, USA. Biological Conservation. 1996;78(1–2):51–8.Google Scholar

Linhart, YB, Grant, MC. Evolutionary significance of local genetic differentiation in plants. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. 1996;27:237–77.Google Scholar

Montalvo, AM, Williams, SL, Rice, KJ, Buchmann, SL, Cory, C, Handel, SN, et al. Restoration biology: a population biology perspective. Restoration Ecology. 1997;5(4):277–90.Google Scholar

Bucharova, A, Frenzel, M, Mody, K, Parepa, M, Durka, W, Bossdorf, O. Plant ecotype affects interacting organisms across multiple trophic levels. Basic and Applied Ecology. 2016;17(8):688–95.Google Scholar

Bucharova, A, Michalski, S, Hermann, JM, Heveling, K, Durka, W, Holzel, N, et al. Genetic differentiation and regional adaptation among seed origins used for grassland restoration: lessons from a multispecies transplant experiment. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2017;54(1):127–36.Google Scholar

Bischoff, A, Steinger, T, Muller-Scharer, H. The importance of plant provenance and genotypic diversity of seed material used for ecological restoration. Restoration Ecology. 2010;18(3):338–48.Google Scholar

Mendola, ML, Baer, SG, Johnson, LC, Maricle, BR. The role of ecotypic variation and the environment on biomass and nitrogen in a dominant prairie grass. Ecology. 2015;96(9):2433–45.Google Scholar

Edmands, S. Between a rock and a hard place: evaluating the relative risks of inbreeding and outbreeding for conservation and management. Molecular Ecology. 2007;16(3):463–75.Google Scholar

Galloway, LF, Fenster, CB. Population differentiation in an annual legume: local adaptation. Evolution. 2000;54(4):1173–81.Google Scholar

Leiss, KA, Muller-Scharer, H. Performance of reciprocally sown populations of Senecio vulgaris from ruderal and agricultural habitats. Oecologia. 2001;128(2):210–6.Google Scholar

Falk, DA, Richards, CM, Montalvo, AM, Knapp, EE. Population and ecological genetics in restoration ecology. In: Falk, DA, Palmer, MA, Zedler, JB, editors. Foundations of restoration ecology. Washington, DC: Island Press; 2006. pp. 14–41.Google Scholar

Michalski, SG, Durka, W, Jentsch, A, Kreyling, J, Pompe, S, Schweiger, O, et al. Evidence for genetic differentiation and divergent selection in an autotetraploid forage grass (Arrhenatherum elatius). Theoretical and Applied Genetics. 2010;120(6):1151–62.Google Scholar

Gibson, DJ, Allstadt, AJ, Baer, SG, Geisler, M. Effects of foundation species genotypic diversity on subordinate species richness in an assembling community. Oikos. 2012;121(4):496–507.Google Scholar

Gustafson, DJ, Gibson, DJ, Nickrent, DL. Conservation genetics of two co-dominant grass species in an endangered grassland ecosystem. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2004;41(2):389–97.Google Scholar

Dolan, RW, Marr, DL, Schnabel, A. Capturing genetic variation during ecological restorations: an example from Kankakee Sands in Indiana. Restoration Ecology. 2008;16(3):386–96.Google Scholar

Young, AG, Murray, BG. Genetic bottlenecks and dysgenic gene flow into re-established populations of the grassland daisy, Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides. Australian Journal of Botany. 2000;48(3):409–16.Google Scholar

Aitken, SN, Whitlock, MC. Assisted gene flow to facilitate local adaptation to climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics. 2013;44:367–88.Google Scholar

De Frenne, P, Coomes, DA, De Schrijver, A, Staelens, J, Alexander, JM, Bernhardt-Roemermann, M, et al. Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils. New Phytologist. 2014;202(2):431–41.Google Scholar

Liancourt, P, Spence, LA, Song, DS, Lkhagva, A, Sharkhuu, A, Boldgiv, B, et al. Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype. Ecology. 2013;94(2):444–53.Google Scholar

Nicotra, AB, Atkin, OK, Bonser, SP, Davidson, AM, Finnegan, EJ, Mathesius, U, et al. Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate. Trends in Plant Science. 2010;15(12):684–92.Google Scholar

Rice, KJ, Emery, NC. Managing microevolution: restoration in the face of global change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2003;1(9):469–78.Google Scholar

Christensen, JH, Hewitson, B, Busuioc, A, Chen, A, Gao, X, Held, I, et al. Regional climate projections. In: Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Avery, KB, et al., editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007.Google Scholar

Polley, HW, Briske, DD, Morgan, JA, Wolter, K, Bailey, DW, Brown, JR. Climate change and North American rangelands: trends, projections, and implications. Rangeland Ecology & Management. 2013;66(5):493–511.Google Scholar

Kimball, S, Lulow, ME, Balazs, KR, Huxman, TE. Predicting drought tolerance from slope aspect preference in restored plant communities. Ecology and Evolution. 2017;7(9):3123–31.Google Scholar

Richter, S, Kipfer, T, Wohlgemuth, T, Guerrero, CC, Ghazoul, J, Moser, B. Phenotypic plasticity facilitates resistance to climate change in a highly variable environment. Oecologia. 2012;169(1):269–79.Google Scholar

Nooten, SS, Hughes, L. The power of the transplant: direct assessment of climate change impacts. Climatic Change. 2017;144(2):237–55.Google Scholar

Carter, DL, Blair, JM. Seed source affects establishment and survival for three grassland species sown into reciprocal common gardens. Ecosphere. 2012;3(11):10.Google Scholar

Wilson, LR, Gibson, DJ, Baer, SG, Johnson, LC. Plant community response to regional sources of dominant grasses in grasslands restored across a longitudinal gradient. Ecosphere. 2016;7(4):art e01329.Google Scholar

Isbell, F, Craven, D, Connolly, J, Loreau, M, Schmid, B, Beierkuhnlein, C, et al. Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes. Nature. 2015;526(7574):574–7.Google Scholar

Kreyling, J, Jentsch, A, Beierkuhnlein, C. Stochastic trajectories of succession initiated by extreme climatic events. Ecology Letters. 2011;14(8):758–64.Google Scholar

Hooper, DU, Chapin, FS, Ewel, JJ, Hector, A, Inchausti, P, Lavorel, S, et al. Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: a consensus of current knowledge. Ecological Monographs. 2005;75(1):3–35.Google Scholar

Funk, JL, Cleland, EE, Suding, KN, Zavaleta, ES. Restoration through reassembly: plant traits and invasion resistance. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2008;23(12):695–703.Google Scholar

Verdu, M, Gomez-Aparicio, L, Valiente-Banuet, A. Phylogenetic relatedness as a tool in restoration ecology: a meta-analysis. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2012;279(1734):1761–7.Google Scholar

Barber, NA, Jones, HP, Duvall, MR, Wysocki, WP, Hansen, MJ, Gibson, DJ. Phylogenetic diversity is maintained despite richness losses over time in restored tallgrass prairie plant communities. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2017;54(1):137–44.Google Scholar

Khalil, MI, Gibson, DJ, Baer, SG. Phylogenetic diversity reveals hidden patterns related to population source and species pools during restoration. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2017;54(1):91–101.Google Scholar

Khalil, MI, Gibson, DJ, Baer, SG. Functional diversity is more sensitive to biotic filters than phylogenetic diversity during community assembly. Ecosphere. 2018;9:art e02164.Google Scholar

Barak, RS, Hipp, AL, Cavender-Bares, J, Pearse, WD, Hotchkiss, SC, Lynch, EA, et al. Taking the long view: integrating recorded, archeological, paleoecological, and evolutionary data into ecological restoration. International Journal of Plant Sciences. 2016;177(1):90–102.Google Scholar

Forrestel, EJ, Donoghue, MJ, Edwards, EJ, Jetz, W, du Toit, JCO, Smith, MD. Different clades and traits yield similar grassland functional responses. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2017;114(4):705–10.Google Scholar

Venail, P, Gross, K, Oakley, TH, Narwani, A, Allan, E, Flombaum, P, et al. Species richness, but not phylogenetic diversity, influences community biomass production and temporal stability in a re-examination of 16 grassland biodiversity studies. Functional Ecology. 2015;29(5):615–26.Google Scholar

Ratajczak, Z, Nippert, JB, Briggs, JM, Blair, JM. Fire dynamics distinguish grasslands, shrublands and woodlands as alternative attractors in the Central Great Plains of North America. Journal of Ecology. 2014;102(6):1374–85.Google Scholar

Ratajczak, Z, Nippert, JB, Ocheltree, TW. Abrupt transition of mesic grassland to shrubland: evidence for thresholds, alternative attractors, and regime shifts. Ecology. 2014;95(9):2633–45.Google Scholar

Gibson, DJ, Hulbert, LC. Effects of fire, topography and year-to-year climatic variation on species composition in tallgrass prairie. Vegetatio. 1987;72(3):175–85.Google Scholar

Bowles, ML, Jones, MD. Repeated burning of eastern tallgrass prairie increases richness and diversity, stabilizing late successional vegetation. Ecological Applications. 2013;23(2):464–78.Google Scholar

Collins, SL, Calabrese, LB. Effects of fire, grazing and topographic variation on vegetation structure in tallgrass prairie. Journal of Vegetation Science. 2012;23(3):563–75.Google Scholar

Kane, K, Debinski, DM, Anderson, C, Scasta, JD, Engle, DM, Miller, JR. Using regional climate projections to guide grassland community restoration in the face of climate change. Frontiers in Plant Science. 2017;8:11.Google Scholar

Crutzen, PJ. The ‘anthropocene’. Journal de Physique Archives. 2002;12(10):1–5.Google Scholar

Crutzen, PJ. Geology of mankind. Nature. 2002;415:23.Google Scholar

Crutzen, PJ, Stoermer, EF. The ‘Anthropocene’. Global Change Newsletter, International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP). 2000;41:17–8.Google Scholar

Ruddiman, WF, Ellis, EC, Kaplan, JO, Fuller, DQ. Defining the epoch we live in. Science. 2015;348(6230):38–9.Google Scholar

Bai, X, van der Leeuw, S, O’Brien, K, Berkhout, F, Biermann, F, Brondizio, ES, et al. Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: a new research agenda. Global Environmental Change. 2016;39:351–62.Google Scholar

Rockström, J, Steffen, W, Noone, K, Persson, Å, Chapin III, FS, Lambin, E, et al. Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society. 2009;14(2):art32 (www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/).Google Scholar

Newman, JA, Varner, G, Linquist, S. Defending biodiversity: environmental science and ethics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2017.Google Scholar

Ellis, EC, Ramankutty, N. Putting people in the map: anthropogenic biomes of the world. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2008;6:439–47.Google Scholar

Olson, DM, Dinerstein, E, Wikramanayake, ED, Burgess, ND, Powell, GVN, Underwood, EC, et al. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. BioScience. 2001;51(11):933–8.Google Scholar

Sayre, NF, Davis, DK, Bestelmeyer, B, Williamson, JC. Rangelands: where anthromes meet their limits. Land. 2017;6(2):31.Google Scholar

Ellis, EC. Ecology in an anthropogenic biosphere. Ecological Monographs. 2015;85(3):287–331.Google Scholar

Fuentes, A, Baynes-Rock, M. Anthropogenic landscapes, human action and the process of co-construction with other species: making anthromes in the Anthropocene. Land. 2017;6(1):15.Google Scholar

Jax, K. Ecological units: definitions and application. The Quarterly Review of Biology. 2006;81:237–58.Google Scholar

Garcia, RK, Newman, JA. Is it possible to care for ecosystems? Policy paralysis and ecosystem management. Ethics, Policy & Environment. 2016;19(2):170–82.Google Scholar

Hobbs, RJ, Higgs, ES, Hall, CM, editors. Novel ecosystems: intervening in the new ecological world order. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons; 2013.Google Scholar

Parmesan, C, Hanley, ME. Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises. Annals of Botany. 2015;116(6):849–64.Google Scholar

Jouzel, J, Masson-Delmotte, V, Cattani, O, Dreyfus, G, Falourd, S, Hoffmann, G, et al. Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science. 2007;317(5839):793–6.Google Scholar

Lüthi, D, Le Floch, M, Bereiter, B, Blunier, T, Barnola, J-M, Siegenthaler, U, et al. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present. Nature. 2008;453(7193):379.Google Scholar

Seastedt, TR, Hobbs, RJ, Suding, KN. Management of novel ecosystems: are novel approaches required? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2008;6(10):547–53.Google Scholar

Six, LJ, Bakker, JD, Bilby, RE. Vegetation dynamics in a novel ecosystem: agroforestry effects on grassland vegetation in Uruguay. Ecosphere. 2014;5(6):1–15.Google Scholar

Chapin III, FS, Starfield, AM. Time lags and novel ecosystems in response to transient climatic change in arctic Alaska. Climatic Change. 1997;35(4):449–61.Google Scholar

Wilcox, BP, Sorice, MG, Young, MH. Dryland ecohydrology in the Anthropocene: taking stock of human–ecological interactions. Geography Compass. 2011;5:112–27.Google Scholar

Wilson, EO. The creation: an appeal to save life on Earth. New York, NY: Norton; 2006.Google Scholar

McGill, BJ, Dornelsa, M, Gotelli, NJ, Magurran, AE. Fifteen forms of biodiversity trend in the Anthropocene. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2014;30(2):104–13.Google Scholar

Vellend, M, Baeten, L, Becker-Scarpitta, A, Boucher-Lalonde, V, McCune, JL, Messier, J, et al. Plant biodiversity change across scales during the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Plant Biology. 2017;68(1):563–86.Google Scholar

Ellis, EC, Antill, EC, Kreft, H. All is not loss: plant biodiversity in the Anthropocene. PLoS ONE. 2012;7(1):e30535.Google Scholar

Sutherland, WJ, Woodroof, HJ. The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2009;24(10):523–7.Google Scholar

Sutherland, WJ, Aveling, R, Brooks, TM, Clout, M, Dicks, LV, Fellman, L, et al. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2014;29(1):15–22.Google Scholar

Rocha, JC, Peterson, GD, Biggs, R. Regime shifts in the Anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience. PLoS ONE. 2015;10(8): e0134639.Google Scholar

Benito-Garzón, M, Leadley, PW, Fernández-Manjarrés, JF. Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene–Anthropocene transition. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2014;23(2):235–44.Google Scholar

Beals, SC, Preston, DL, Wessman, CA, Seastedt, TR. Resilience of a novel ecosystem after the loss of a keystone species: plague epizootics and urban prairie dog management. Ecosphere. 2015;6(9):art157.Google Scholar

Wolkovich, EM, Cook, BI, McLauchlan, KK, Davies, TJ. Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene. Ecology Letters. 2014;17(11):1365–79.Google Scholar

Verburg, PH, Dearing, JA, Dyke, JG, Leeuw, Svd, Seitzinger, S, Steffen, W, et al. Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene. Global Environmental Change. 2016;39:328–40.Google Scholar

Biermann, F, Bai, X, Bondre, N, Broadgate, W, Arthur Chen, C-T, Dube, OP, et al. Down to Earth: contextualizing the Anthropocene. Global Environmental Change. 2016;39:341–50.Google Scholar

Poesen, J. Soil erosion in the Anthropocene: research needs. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 2018;43(1):64–84.Google Scholar

Svenning, J-C, Pedersen, PBM, Donlan, CJ, Ejrnæs, R, Faurby, S, Galetti, M, et al. Science for a wilder Anthropocene: synthesis and future directions for trophic rewilding research. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 2016;113(4):898–906.Google Scholar

Zimov, SA, Zimov, NS, Tikhonov, AN, Chapin III, FS. Mammoth steppe: a high productivity phenomenon. Quarternary Science Reviews. 2012;57:26–45.Google Scholar

Fernández-Giménez, ME, Venable, NH, Angerer, J, Fassnacht, SR, Reid, RS, Khishigbayar, J. Exploring linked ecological and cultural tipping points in Mongolia. Anthropocene. 2017;17:46–69.Google Scholar

Clement, S, Standish, RJ. Novel ecosystems: governance and conservation in the age of the Anthropocene. Journal of Environmental Management. 2018;208:36–45.Google Scholar

Seddon, N, Mace, GM, Naeem, S, Tobias, JA, Pigot, AL, Cavanagh, R, et al. Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2016;283(1844).Google Scholar

Reich, PB, Hobbie, SE, Lee, TD, Pastore, MA. Unexpected reversal of C₃ versus C₄ grass response to elevated CO₂ during a 20-year field experiment. Science. 2018;360(6386):317–20.Google Scholar

Flato, G, Marotzke, J, Abiodun, B, Braconnot, P, Chou, SC, Collins, W, et al. Evaluation of climate models. In: Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, G-K, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, et al., editors. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2013.Google Scholar

Hawkins, E, Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2009;90(8):1095–108.Google Scholar

Newman, JA. Climate change and the fate of cereal aphids in Southern Britain. Global Change Biology. 2005;11(6):940–4.Google Scholar

Ziter, C, Robinson, EA, Newman, JA. Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice. Global Change Biology. 2012;18(9):2771–80.Google Scholar

Langille, AB, Arteca, EM, Newman, JA. The impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in the United States and Canada. PeerJ. 2017;5:e3192.Google Scholar

Minigan, JN, Hager, HA, Peregrine, AS, Newman, JA. Current and potential future distribution of the American dog tick (Dermacentor variabilis, Say) in North America. Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases. 2018;9(2):354–62.Google Scholar

Clarke, L, Edmonds, J, Krey, V, Richels, R, Rose, S, Tavoni, M. International climate policy architectures: overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios. Energy Economics. 2009;31:S64–S81.Google Scholar

Royer, DL. CO₂-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. 2006;70(23):5665–75.Google Scholar

Gore, A. An inconvenient truth: The planetary emergency of global warming and what we can do about it. New York, NY: Rodale; 2006.Google Scholar

Harris, RMB, Carter, O, Gilfedder, L, Porfirio, LL, Lee, G, Bindoff, NL. Noah’s Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change. PLoS ONE. 2015;10(4):e0124014.Google Scholar

Mariotte, P, Kardol, P, editors. Grassland biodiversity and conservation in a changing world. New York, NY: Nova Publishers; 2014.Google Scholar

Acar, Z, López-Francos, A, Porqueddu, C, editors. New approaches for grassland research in a context of climate and socio-economic changes. Zaragoza: CIHEAM; 2012.Google Scholar

Parmesan, C, Burrows, MT, Duarte, CM, Poloczanska, ES, Richardson, AJ, Schoeman, DS, et al. Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research. Ecology Letters. 2013;16:58–71.Google Scholar

Reich, PB, Hobbie, SE, Lee, TD, Pastore, MA. Unexpected reversal of C₃ versus C₄ grass response to elevated CO₂ during a 20-year field experiment. Science. 2018;360(6386):317–20.Google Scholar

Parmesan, C, Hanley, ME. Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises. Annals of Botany. 2015;116(6):849–64.Google Scholar

Bardgett, RD, Gibson, DJ. Plant ecological solutions to global food security. Journal of Ecology. 2017;105(4):1–4.Google Scholar