A representation-based model of composition change in the activist pools has already yielded interesting insights into the roles of demographic shifts and changes in turnout shaping longitudinal changes in the activist pools. Although demographic changes explain the lion's share of composition variation in the activist pools for several religious traditions, substantial variation is left unexplained (Evangelicals and Mainline Protestants), and demographic changes fail to explain variation for other religious traditions (Black Protestants and Catholics). Turnout proves very important for Black Protestants but provides only limited explanatory power for the other traditions – and none at all for the rise of Catholics activists in the Republican activist pool. This chapter investigates the role of changes in voter loyalty shaping changes in the composition of the activist pools. Once again, notwithstanding the dominance of mobilization models in prior work, an explanation that has little to do with mobilization will prove very important when it comes to understanding trends among the activists. Finding that voter loyalty shapes composition in the activist pools is, in part, remarkable because it represents the reverse of a process that others have shown to be important. Scholars following in the footsteps of Carmines and Stimson (1989) have placed changes among activists at the forefront of explanations for changes in partisan voting patterns. Although there is no question activists play an important role in the “evolution” of the electorate, this chapter demonstrates that the reverse is also an important process. Activists shape electorates AND, more important from the perspective of explaining changes in the composition of the activist pools, electorates shape activist pools.

Using the same ANES data, this chapter presents the longitudinal voting patterns for each religious tradition. Trends in voter loyalty are then compared to activism trends using a Granger test to assess the causal processes linking the two.