The flipside to the logic of exclusion is a new logic of inclusion. Processes have begun to move the geographical space of the European project outwards. Russia's war on Ukraine has opened the possibility of a reshaped geography of European politics. The conflict has prompted the EU to advance the prospect of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia becoming members. Separately, an embryonic European Political Community has been created that additionally includes the UK, Turkey and other non-EU states; although this format does not yet have a guaranteed future it could end up resembling something akin to a loose concert of European powers. These steps point towards a territorial redesign of European order.

For now, this redesign is a possibility, not a certain outcome. The ultimate extent of geographical reordering remains unclear. Many sceptics feel that the offer of membership to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia is low-cost symbolism, unlikely ever to reach fruition. If further enlargement does not advance as the main institutional basis for a wider and more inclusive European order, debates will centre on how far a looser diplomatic concert might fulfil this function. The re-ordering of 1989 shifted the European project's border decisively to the East; the Ukraine war has opened the likelihood of it moving further outwards, although this is still to materialize in definitive form.

NEW FRONTIERS

Russia's invasion has catalysed a revived process of EU enlargement and opened debates about NATO membership too; Figure 6.1 shows the new situation regarding EU applicant states. Most European governments were implacably opposed to any widening of Euro-Atlantic borders before the war started. Indeed, in the years prior to the invasion, “re-bordering” debates were not about inclusion but the inverse process of rebuilding frontiers, reflecting an inward-looking concern with identity protection in response to populism.1 Governments’ change of heart on this question captures just how far-reaching an impact the war may have at the level of system-ordering.

NATO has moved to include Finland and Sweden as new members and the alliance's members stress that they are positively minded to invite in Ukraine after the war ends. As yet, they have held back from making a formal offer to Ukraine, whose government applied to join NATO in September 2022. Some eastern EU member states quickly expressed firm support for the application and by mid-2023 the UK and French governments were also moving in favour.