Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- Introduction
- Bibliography
- I The Emerging Role of Econometrics in Economics
- II Early Time-Series Analysis
- III Applied Econometrics and the Identification Problem
- IV The Evolution of Statistical Thinking in Econometrics
- 21 Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply with Special Application to Sugar (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1928, pp. 27–39)
- 22 ‘Pitfalls’ Debate (Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 48, 1934, pp. 355–61, 749–51, 755–66)
- 23 Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems (University Institute of Economics, Oslo, 1934, pp. 5–8)
- 24 Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series (Netherlands Economic Institute, Haarlem, 1937, pp. 1–10, 54–63, 129–32)
- 25 Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: A Method and Its Application to Investment Activity (League of Nations, Geneva, 1939, vol. I, pp. 27–33)
- 26 Residual Variables in Regression and Confluence Analysis (Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift, vol. 28, 1945, pp. 201–10)
- V Dynamic Models
- VI The Tinbergen Debate
- VII Structure and Simultaneity
- VIII The Probabilistic Revolution
- IX Exogeneity
- Index
22 - ‘Pitfalls’ Debate (Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 48, 1934, pp. 355–61, 749–51, 755–66)
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- Introduction
- Bibliography
- I The Emerging Role of Econometrics in Economics
- II Early Time-Series Analysis
- III Applied Econometrics and the Identification Problem
- IV The Evolution of Statistical Thinking in Econometrics
- 21 Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply with Special Application to Sugar (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1928, pp. 27–39)
- 22 ‘Pitfalls’ Debate (Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 48, 1934, pp. 355–61, 749–51, 755–66)
- 23 Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems (University Institute of Economics, Oslo, 1934, pp. 5–8)
- 24 Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series (Netherlands Economic Institute, Haarlem, 1937, pp. 1–10, 54–63, 129–32)
- 25 Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories: A Method and Its Application to Investment Activity (League of Nations, Geneva, 1939, vol. I, pp. 27–33)
- 26 Residual Variables in Regression and Confluence Analysis (Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift, vol. 28, 1945, pp. 201–10)
- V Dynamic Models
- VI The Tinbergen Debate
- VII Structure and Simultaneity
- VIII The Probabilistic Revolution
- IX Exogeneity
- Index
Summary
Some Comments
Elmer Working called in 1927 the attention of economists to some facts well known in their substance to the price-theory but sometimes neglected in the statistical work. He stressed the fact that the mere existence of a statistical series of different prices and quantities of a commodity sold in the market does not exclude changes of demand and supply curves. If neither of these curves remains stable, then a curve ‘fitted’ statistically to the ‘scatter-diagram’ of the market necessarily reflects not only the shapes of the demand and supply curves but also the kind of fluctuations they underwent during the observation period. Accordingly, H. Schultz and H. L. Moore, in their well-known works, tried to eliminate at least a part of the time-change by assuming a ‘routine of change’ – of demand only. J. Tinbergen preferred to eliminate, not the time, which is of course in itself not an economic cause, but a few definite factors supposed to be pertinent to supply and demand shifts of the particular commodity considered. W. Leontief attempted to derive a method of eliminating time-shifts, starting from the assumption that they must have an erratic character.
Now, R. Frisch introduced notions which enabled him to develop analytically E. Working's statements. By applying these notions to Leontief's methods he succeeded in giving to this method an elementary mathematical exposition which is considerably simpler and at the same time more general than the exposition given originally by W. Leontief and his mathematical collaborator, R. Schmidt.
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- The Foundations of Econometric Analysis , pp. 257 - 270Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1995