Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Introduction: A Chance to Reconsider
- Chapter 1 Instrumental Rationality as Expected Utility Maximization
- Chapter 2 Decision Problems
- Chapter 3 Savage's Theory
- Chapter 4 Evidential Decision Theory
- Chapter 5 Causal Decision Theory
- Chapter 6 A General Theory of Conditional Beliefs
- Chapter 7 A Representation Theorem for Causal Decision Theory
- Chapter 8 Where Things Stand
- References
- Index
Introduction: A Chance to Reconsider
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 25 July 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Introduction: A Chance to Reconsider
- Chapter 1 Instrumental Rationality as Expected Utility Maximization
- Chapter 2 Decision Problems
- Chapter 3 Savage's Theory
- Chapter 4 Evidential Decision Theory
- Chapter 5 Causal Decision Theory
- Chapter 6 A General Theory of Conditional Beliefs
- Chapter 7 A Representation Theorem for Causal Decision Theory
- Chapter 8 Where Things Stand
- References
- Index
Summary
So, you have decided to read this book. Are you sure that's wise? Reading a tome entitled The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory is a sure sign of interest in the study of rational choice, which is a very unfortunate interest to have. You probably have heard all the jokes about decision theorists who cannot make wise choices. (How many does it take to screw in a light bulb? Who knows; you can't draw up a decision matrix in the dark. What do you call a decision theorist with a bank balance? A meal ticket.) Unfortunately, there is more than a grain of truth in these jests. It is widely known, at least among people who have no interest in rational choice theory, that about half of those who study decision making are patsies who can be easily exploited. Here are some facts of which you may be unaware: Most business schools keep a few decision theorists on staff (and overpay them grossly) to make it easier to win money at the weekly poker game. Ninety percent of all swampland is owned by people who have read Leonard Savage's The Foundations of Statistics. In most banks one can get a loan without putting up collateral merely by showing that one has a product that appeals to Econometrica subscribers. No one has ever paid the full sticker price for a car who did not know that Daniel Bernoulli invented the concept of utility.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory , pp. 1 - 8Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1999