Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-03T17:18:23.895Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

4 - Enabling a Significant Nuclear Role in China’s Decarbonization

Loosening Constraints, Mitigating Risks

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 December 2021

Henry Lee ,
Daniel P. Schrag ,
Matthew Bunn ,
Michael Davidson ,
Wei Peng ,
Wang Pu  and
Mao Zhimin
By
Matthew Bunn
Henry Lee
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Daniel P. Schrag
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Matthew Bunn
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Michael Davidson
Affiliation:
University of California, San Diego
Wei Peng
Affiliation:
Penn State University
Wang Pu
Affiliation:
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
Mao Zhimin
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Get access

Summary

While China is building nuclear reactors faster than any other country in the world, major constraints may limit nuclear energy’s ability to grow to the scale of hundreds of gigawatts that would be required for it to play a major part in decarbonizing China’s energy system. This chapter explores the major constraints on, and risks of, large-scale nuclear energy growth in China, and how both new policies and new technologies might address them. It focuses particularly on the two biggest constraints – economics and siting. Substantial government policies to support nuclear power and advanced reactor systems designed to address some of the key constraints are both likely to be needed for nuclear to have a chance of playing a major role in decarbonizing China’s energy system; nuclear energy’s role may be bigger in the second half of this century than in the first half.

Keywords

Nuclear energyeconomicspublic acceptancenuclear safetyproliferationwasteregulationuranium
Type
Chapter
Information
Foundations for a Low-Carbon Energy System in China , pp. 65 - 100
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2017” (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2017), pp. 700–701.Google Scholar
Hu, J., Huang, L., Chen, M. et al., “Premature mortality attributable to particulate matter in China: Source contributions and responses to reductions,” Environmental Science and Technology 51(17) (2017), pp. 9950–9959.Google Scholar
International Atomic Energy Agency , “Power Reactor Information System” (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, n.d.). Available at: www.iaea.org/pris/.Google Scholar
Hibbs, M., The Future of Nuclear Power in China (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018).Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in China” (London: World Nuclear Association, October 2017).Google Scholar
Ramana, M. V. and King, A., “A new normal? The changing future of nuclear energy in China,” in van Ness, Peter and Gurtov, Mel, eds., Lessons from Fukushima (Canberra: Australia National University Press, 2017), pp. 103–132. Available at: https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/learning-fukushima.Google Scholar
Schneider, M. and Frogatt, A., with Hazemann, J., Katsuta, T., Ramana, M. V., Rodriguez, J. C., Rüdinger, A., and Stienne, A., “World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2017” (Paris: Mycle Schneider Consulting, September 2017), pp. 198–202.Google Scholar
Buongiorno, J., Corradini, M., and Parsons, J., co-chairs, “The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World” (Cambridge, MA: MIT Energy Initiative, 2018). Available at: http://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/The-Future-of-Nuclear-Energy-in-a-Carbon-Constrained-World.pdf.Google Scholar
Bunn, M., Zhang, H., and Kang, L., “The Cost of Reprocessing in China” (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, January 2016), pp. 12–13.Google Scholar
“Goals set for nuclear energy development in next five years,” China Daily (January 18, 2017). Available at: www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-01/18/content_27988526.htmGoogle Scholar
Tabeta, S., “China approves first new nuclear reactors in 3-plus years,” Nikkei Asian Review (August 2, 2019). Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-approves-first-new-nuclear-reactors-in-3-plus-years.Google Scholar
Kidd, S., “Assessing China’s slowdown,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (November 30, 2018), p. 7. Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in China.”Google Scholar
International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2017.”Google Scholar
Stapczynski, S., “Nuclear experts head to China to test experimental reactors,” Bloomberg Technology (September 21, 2017). Available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/nuclear-scientists-head-to-china-to-test-experimental-reactors.Google Scholar
Yu, C. F. and Peach, G., “China: CNNC commits to TWR development,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (October 6, 2017). Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
US Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, “U.S. Policy Framework on Civil Nuclear Cooperation with China” (Washington, DC: National Nuclear Safety Administration, October 2018).Google Scholar
Yu, C. F., “China: U.S. export ban paves way for competition,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (October 19, 2018). Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
National Nuclear Safety Administration, “The People’s Republic of China: Seventh National Report Under the Convention on Nuclear Safety (2013–2015)” (Beijing: Ministry of Environmental Protection, 2016).Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in China.”Google Scholar
Lipcsy, P. Y., Kushida, K. E., and Incerti, T., “The Fukushima Disaster and Japan‘s Nuclear Plant Vulnerability in Comparative Perspective,” Environmental Science & Technology, 47 (2013), pp. 6082–6088.Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in China.”Google Scholar
Dejian, Y., “Nuclear Safety Regulatory Framework and Challenges in China,” presentation to the 40th Annual Meeting of the Spanish Nuclear Society, October 2014.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China, p. 87.Google Scholar
“Former China nuclear head jailed for life over bribes,” BBC News (November 19, 2010).Google Scholar
Zhang, H., “China’s Nuclear Security: Progress, Challenges, and Next Steps” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, 2016), pp. 5–7. Available at: http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/files/Chinas%20Nuclear%20Security-Web.pdf.Google Scholar
Lipcsy, et al., “The Fukushima disaster and Japan‘s nuclear plant vulnerability.”Google Scholar
International Atomic Energy Agency, “Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) Follow-Up Mission to China,” IAEA-NS-IRRS-2016/06. (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 2016). Available at: www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/review-missions/final_report_china_follow-up.pdf.Google Scholar
“Maintain nuclear perspective, China told,” World Nuclear News (January 11, 2011). Available at: www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP_Maintain_nuclear_perspective_China_told_1101112.html.Google Scholar
Lipcsy, et al., “The Fukushima disaster and Japan‘s nuclear plant vulnerability.”Google Scholar
Guohan, C., “Safety Enhancement of the NPPs in China After the Fukushima Accident,” presentation to the 3rd Regulatory Conference of the European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group, June 29–30, 2015.Google Scholar
Graham-Harrison, E., “China warned over ‘insane’ plans for new nuclear power plants,” The Guardian (May 25, 2015).Google Scholar
Buckley, C., “China’s nuclear vision collides with villagers’ fears,” New York Times (November 21, 2015). Available at: www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/world/asia/chinas-nuclear-vision-collides-with-villagers-fears.html?_r=0Google Scholar
Yue, Z., “China’s nuclear expansion threatened by public unease,” China Dialogue (September 23, 2014). Available at: www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/7336-China-s-nuclear-expansion-threatened-by-public-unease.Google Scholar
Buckley, , “China’s nuclear vision collides with villagers’ fears.”Google Scholar
Yue, , “China’s nuclear expansion threatened by public unease.”Google Scholar
Jinging, L., Fuqiang, Y., Portner, J., et al., “Recommendation for the Reform of China’s Nuclear Safety Regulatory System” (Beijing : Natural Resources Defense Council, December 2013).Google Scholar
Rees, J. V., Hostages of Each Other: The Transformation of Nuclear Safety Since Three Mile Island (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996).Google Scholar
Zhang, L., “Nuclear Safety Culture Construction in China,” presentation, IAEA Workshop on the Use of a Harmonized Safety Culture Framework, Vienna, October 23–25, 2017.Google Scholar
Rosatom, “Public Annual Report-2013: Performance Results of the State Atomic Energy Corporation ‘Rosatom’.” (Moscow: Rosatom, 2014). Available at: www.rosatom.ru/upload/iblock/f6e/f6eb142a59cc7b93cb8a254ee7dd11a4.pdf.Google Scholar
Bunn, M., Malin, M. B., Roth, N. et al., “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Continuous Improvement or Dangerous Decline?” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, 2016), p. 29. Available at: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/PreventingNuclearTerrorism-Web.pdf.Google Scholar
Hegghammer, T. and Daehli, A., “Insiders and outsiders: A survey of terrorist threats to nuclear facilities,” in Bunn, M. and Sagan, S., eds., Insider Threats (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2017), pp. 10–41.Google Scholar
Gramer, R., “The Islamic State just pledged to attack China next: Here’s why,” Foreign Policy (March 1, 2017). Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/01/the-islamic-state-pledged-to-attack-china-next-heres-why/Google Scholar
von Hippel, F. and Schoeppner, M., “Reducing the danger from fires in spent fuel pools,” Science & Global Security, 24(3) (2016), pp. 141–173.Google Scholar
Zhang, H. and Zhang, T., “Securing China’s Nuclear Future” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, 2014). Available at: https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/securingchinasnuclearfutureenglish.pdf.Google Scholar
Zhou, Y., “The security implications of China’s nuclear energy expansion,” Nonproliferation Review 17(2) (July 2010), pp. 347–363.Google Scholar
Wang, L., “On China’s Nuclear Security Regulations,” presentation, Harvard-Tsinghua workshop on “Opportunities for Cooperation on Regulating Nuclear Safety and Security,” Beijing, June 2, 2017.Google Scholar
Zhang, , “China’s Nuclear Security.”Google Scholar
Zhang, and Zhang, , “Securing China’s Nuclear Future.”Google Scholar
Ramana, and King, , “A new normal?,” pp. 117–120.Google Scholar
Buckley, C., “Thousands in eastern Chinese city protest nuclear waste project,” New York Times (August 8, 2016).Google Scholar
Zhang, H., “China’s Enrichment Capacity: Rapid Expansion to Meet Commercial Needs” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard Kennedy School, August 2015), pp. 17–18.Google Scholar
Yu, C. F., “China: Reprocessing plan faces new domestic challenges,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (August 25, 2017). Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
Yu, , “China: Reprocessing plan faces new domestic challenges.”Google Scholar
Guo, Y. and Ren, T., “When it is unfamiliar to me: Local acceptance of planned nuclear power plants in China in the post-Fukushima era,” Energy Policy 100 (2017), pp. 113–125.Google Scholar
Sun, C. and Zhu, X., “Evaluating the public perceptions of nuclear power in China: Evidence from a contingent valuation survey,” Energy Policy 69 (2014), pp. 397–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guo, and Ren, , “When it is unfamiliar to me.”Google Scholar
Buckley, , “China’s nuclear vision collides with villagers’ fears.”Google Scholar
Yue, , “China’s nuclear expansion threatened by public unease.”Google Scholar
Vera, J., “Winning public trust: The siting of a nuclear waste facility in Eurajoki, Finland,” Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization 1(4) (Fall 2006), pp. 67–82.Google Scholar
Bunn, M., Holdren, J. P., Macfarlane, A. et al., “Interim Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel: A Safe, Flexible, and Cost-Effective Approach to Spent Fuel Management” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Project on Sociotechnics of Nuclear Energy, University of Tokyo, June 2001), pp. 33–56.Google Scholar
Weeks, J., “Advice – and Consent? The Department of Energy’s Site-Specific Advisory Boards” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, August 2000). Available at: www.belfercenter.org/index.php/publication/advice-and-consent-department-energys-site-specific-advisory-boards.Google Scholar
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, “Purchasing Power Parities (PPP).” Available at: https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm (Accessed March 24, 2021).Google Scholar
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Energy Agency and Nuclear Energy Agency, “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/International Energy Agency/Nuclear Energy Agency, 2015), p. 41.Google Scholar
Barkatullah, N. and Ahmad, A., “Current status and emerging trends in financing nuclear power projects,” Energy Strategy Reviews 18 (2017), pp. 127–140.Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association, “The Economics of Nuclear Power” (London: World Nuclear Association, version updated August 2017). Available at: www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/economic-aspects/economics-of-nuclear-power.aspx.Google Scholar
China Nuclear Energy Association, “China Nuclear Energy Guide 2017” (Beijing: China Nuclear Energy Association, 2017). Available at: www.niauk.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/CNEA-China-Nuclear-Energy-Guide.pdf.Google Scholar
“Direct Testimony and Exhibits of Tom Newsome, PE, CFA, Philip Hayet, and Lane Kollen,” In the Matter of: Georgia Power Company’s Seventeenth Semi-Annual Vogtle Construction Monitoring Report, Docket No. 29849 (Augusta, GA: Georgia Public Service Commission, December 1, 2017).Google Scholar
US Energy Information Administration, “Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants” (Washington, DC: Energy Information Administration, November 2016). Available at: www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/pdf/capcost_assumption.pdf.Google Scholar
Lazard, “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 11.0” (New York: Lazard, November 2017). Available at: www.lazard.com/media/450337/lazard-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-110.pdf.Google Scholar
International Atomic Energy Agency, “Power Reactor Information System.”Google Scholar
International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2017,” pp. 702–703.Google Scholar
Yu, C. F., “China: NEA codifies nuclear load-following,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (March 10, 2017). Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
Yu, C. F., “China: Lower-than-expected tariffs for first AP1000s and EPRs,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (April 5, 2019). Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
Yu, C. F., “China: Nuclear players shift to renewables,” Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (April 6, 2018). Available at: www.energyintel.com/pages/about_uiw.aspx.Google Scholar
Buongiorno, et al., “The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World,” pp. 31–58.Google Scholar
Anadon, L. D., Bosetti, V., Bunn, M. et al., “Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy,” Environmental Science & Technology 46(21) (November 2012), pp. 11497–11504.Google Scholar
Forsberg, C., Hu, L. W., Peterson, P. et al., “Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor (FHR) for Power and Process Heat: Final Project Report,” MIT-ANP-TR-157 (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, December 2014).Google Scholar
Buongiorno, J., Jurewicz, J., Golay, M. et al., “The offshore floating nuclear plant (OFNP) concept,” Nuclear Technology 194(1) (April 2016), pp. 1–14.Google Scholar
Bunn, et al., “Interim Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel,” pp. 33–56.Google Scholar
Bunn, M., “Proliferation-Resistance (and Terror-Resistance) of Nuclear Energy: How to Think About the Problem,” presentation, Engineering and Public Policy Seminar, Carnegie-Mellon University, December 12, 2014. Available at: www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/prolif-resist-talk-2014.pdf.Google Scholar
Bunn, M., Malin, M. B., Potter, W. C., and Spector, L. S., eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018).Google Scholar
Buongiorno, et al., “The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World,” pp. 5–29.Google Scholar
Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and International Atomic Energy Agency, “Uranium 2016: Resources, Production, and Demand” (Paris: Nuclear Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2016), pp. 201–204. Available at: www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2016/7301-uranium%20XE%20“uranium”-2016.pdf.Google Scholar
Zhang, H. and Bai, Y., “China’s Access to Uranium Resources” (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, May 2015). Available at: https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/chinasaccesstouraniumresources.pdf.Google Scholar
Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and International Atomic Energy Agency , “Uranium 2016,” p. 3.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China.Google Scholar
Bunn, et al., eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology.Google Scholar
Schneider, E. and Sailor, W., “Long-term uranium supply estimates,” Nuclear Technology 162(3) (June 2008), pp. 379–387.Google Scholar
Kazimi, M. and Moniz, E. J., co-chairs, “The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study” (Cambridge, MA: MIT, 2011). Available at: http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documentsnuclear-fuel-cycle/The_Nuclear_Fuel_Cycle-all.pdf.Google Scholar
Buongiorno, et al., “The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World,” p. xii.Google Scholar
Rickover, Admiral H., memorandum, June 5, 1953. Available at: http://ecolo.org/documents/documents_in_english/Rickover.pdf.Google Scholar
Bunn, et al., “The Cost of Reprocessing in China,” pp. 32–34.Google Scholar
Cochran, T. B., Feiveson, H. A., Patterson, W. et al., “Fast Breeder Reactor Programs: History and Status” (Princeton, NJ: International Panel on Fissile Materials, February 2010). Available at: http://fissilematerials.org/library/rr08.pdf.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China, p. 72.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China, pp. 51–53.Google Scholar
Yu, and Peach, , “China: CNNC commits to TWR development.”Google Scholar
Greene, J., “Trump’s tech battle with China roils Bill Gates nuclear venture,” Wall Street Journal (January 1, 2019). Available at: www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-tech-battle-with-china-roils-bill-gates-nuclear-venture-11546360589.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China, p. 53.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China, p. 53.Google Scholar
Cartlidge, E., “Fusion energy pushed back beyond 2050,” BBC News (July 11, 2017). Available at: www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40558758.Google Scholar
Hibbs, , The Future of Nuclear Power in China, pp. 57–58.Google Scholar
Bunn, et al., “The Cost of Reprocessing in China,” pp. 12–13.Google Scholar
Rickover, , memorandum, June 5, 1953.Google Scholar
Bunn, M., “Assessing the Benefits, Costs, and Risks of Near-Term Reprocessing and Alternatives,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Energy and Water, Committee on Appropriations, US Senate, 14 September 2006.Google Scholar
von Hippel, F., “Managing Spent Fuel in the United States: The Illogic of Reprocessing” (Princeton, NJ: International Panel on Fissile Materials, January 2007).Google Scholar
Ford, M. J. and Schrag, D. P., “A tortoise approach for US nuclear research and development,” Nature Energy (July 30, 2018), pp. 810–812. Available at: www.nature.com/articles/s41560-018-0221-1.pdf.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×