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14 - Postscript

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2009

Michael Clements
Affiliation:
University of Warwick
David Hendry
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
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Summary

The book has discussed economic forecasting in processes that are reducible to stationarity after differencing or cointegration transforms. It explicitly allowed for the model being used to be a mis-specified representation of the data generation process, and for the evaluation of forecast accuracy by MSFEs to depend on which isomorphic form of the model was used. This chapter looks back at the results established, and forward to our other book which addresses processes that are subject to structural breaks. We showed that many results changed radically when parameter non-constancy was introduced: examples above included the role of causal variables in forecasting relative to non-causal; the value added that could follow from intercept corrections or differencing; and encompassing when models were differentially susceptible to structural breaks. These are the focus of the Zeuthen Lectures, where we will investigate economic forecasting in the face of structural breaks, delineate its main causes, and evaluate their importance by Monte Carlo experiments and empirical examples.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1998

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  • Postscript
  • Michael Clements, University of Warwick, David Hendry, University of Oxford
  • Book: Forecasting Economic Time Series
  • Online publication: 02 November 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599286.016
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  • Postscript
  • Michael Clements, University of Warwick, David Hendry, University of Oxford
  • Book: Forecasting Economic Time Series
  • Online publication: 02 November 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599286.016
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Postscript
  • Michael Clements, University of Warwick, David Hendry, University of Oxford
  • Book: Forecasting Economic Time Series
  • Online publication: 02 November 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599286.016
Available formats
×